MarketVViz

Property Values Set to Fall 43% from Current Depressed Levels

Interesting to see so many that don't think real estate prices will go much lower. I'd say the major thing keeping prices stable at all is the low interest rates. As soon as interest rates go up, housing becomes less and less affordable, this will force prices down. I don't know why so many people think that a house that sold for $200,000 in 1999 should be worth $400,000 today just because it sold for $430,000 at the peak. Its still a $200,000 house plus inflation, give or take a few thousand. If you want to know what your house will likely sell for in a few years, look at what prices were in 1999. You can add to that for inflation if you want, but the truth is, nearly all bubbles correct BELOW trend on the downside, so prices will likely be lower than 1999 in real terms.

I think everyone should read:
A Cautionary Housing Tale from Japan
www.bullnotbull.com/ar...

Class Action Lawsuit Against ProShares SRS Seems Without Merit

While I understand the perspective of this article, and I don't know about the merit of the lawsuit, I certainly understand why it was filed and I think everyone should agree that the risks should be much more clearly stated in the prospectus. Actually I think the products never should have made it to market.

But ignoring the lawsuit for a minute - I think there is a much more important thing people are overlooking. The fact of the matter is that INVESTORS WANT ETFs identical to those that proshares offer but with a stated goal of LONG TERM TRACKING. Why doesn't some company concentrate on giving investors what they actually want here, instead of focusing on products that virtually NO ONE should ever be trading! Why are they focusing on day traders? Its ridiculous. Who the heck needs to hedge anything FOR ONE DAY? I can't think of anyone, the entire concept is just stupid, the product shouldn't exist. They should be creating products that investors actually want instead of products they can trick investors into buying because they are sort of similar to what they actually want!

How I Hedged My Gas Prices

I like your idea of hedging gas prices this way. Although I also think prices are going to come down again before going back up. I'd like to hedge when prices are lower but you never know...

How I Hedged My Gas Prices

kohalakid - You could just short call options instead and save on commissions. The risk/reward is identical or often slightly better because call options sometimes have slightly higher premiums than the corresponding put.

On Jun 29 03:08 PM kohalakid wrote:

> Selling puts against short positions is just about the sexiest thing
> on earth.
>
> I love to watch 'em expire worthless, but sure don't mind when they
> put 'em to me and cover my short at my number.
>
> Guess that means I need to get a life.

ETF Investors Mistakenly Stock Up on USO: Buy USL Instead

If you think oil is going higher, why not buy a fund of oil sector stocks instead? If oil goes up significantly, the stocks could go up by an even greater percentage.

Expert: Coal Reserve Estimates Way Too High

I think once the global warming hysteria ends (which I predict will happen over the next 5 years as global cooling has just begun) I think coal will be viewed much more favorably. Its also worth noting that even if you got your electricity from coal, using that electricity to charge/power and electric vehicle STILL results in significantly lower levels of pollution AND greenhouse gasses than burning gasoline! Most people do not know this.

John Hussman: Multiples Come Back to Earth

Actually just to clarify, the Credit Suisse graph came out first, Hussman's is the newer release.

John Hussman: Multiples Come Back to Earth

I can't figure out how to comment on another Hussman article about mortgage resets:
seekingalpha.com/artic...

(I think commenting is not enabled on that article?) and I don't have Dr. Hussman's email. I was wondering if anyone could shed some light on the issue of mortgage resets. Hussman's article has a graph that shows the bulk of ARM resets has already occured (which is some minor positive for the economy going forward I suppose). But recently Credit Suisse published what I think was intended to be the same sort of graph, only theirs looks totally different! See it here:
www.calculatedriskblog...

Can anyone explain this? The Hussman graph doesn't break out Option ARMS separately - which leaves me wondering - did Hussman miss them completely? Or is the new Credit Suisse graph double counting? Why do those option arm resets only seem to "pop into existince" in the future (i.e. 2009?). I'll have to search for the raw data - this is such a huge difference that it might change my outlook on the economy (not that I'm optimistic as it is).

Is It Time to Buy Gold?

The best trade I can think of if you want to trade gold, is to short gold and go long gold related stocks! This is almost a no brainer, look at charts of the ratio between gold and gold stocks, the ratio has NEVER, EVER, in all history, been at the extreme level it is right now. I can't give you a timeframe, but it is absolutely certain beyond any doubt at all, that this ratio will narrow significantly in the future. What's this mean? Gold could go up, but gold stocks will go up a much bigger %. Gold could remain flat, but gold stocks will go up over time. Or Gold could go down, but gold stocks will go down less of a %. Gold stocks put in a very nice bottom in Oct and have been pretty solid every since, not really even coming close to going back to those Oct Lows, they have outperformed the rest of the market since that time, this is all a good sign of strength.

The inflation/deflation debate can go on and on. Personally I think inflation will win in the end, but the deflationary environment right now is very real and serious. In the grand scheme of things however, its almost meaningless.

Review of "100 Years of Corporate Bond Returns Revisited"

As for the comments about Japan, you should read Dr. Hussman's commentary at hussmanfunds.com. Our markets did in the last 10 years what it took Japan 20+ years to do, that is to reach single digit price to peak earnings levels. The reason it took Japan so long is because their market reached nosebleed valuation levels that our markets have never seen, even at their bubble peak. Japan's entire market was like our dot com bubble of the late nineties.

Don't Let Bulk Shippers Sink Your Portfolio... For Now

If you invest while looking in the rear view mirror, you are going to lose money. BAD NEWS (which has barely even begun to be reported by these guys) is the reason these stocks have been decimated. 2009 is going to be bad, especially the next couple quarters. Everyone knows this, hence the almost total implosion of these stocks. You said you were tempted to buy 1 month ago but didn't - and you imply that you were "right" because news got worse. You are an idiot, if you have bought a month ago today, you would have made >50% profit in many of these companies like GNK which you mentioned.

I'm not saying I can see the future, but it would not surprise me to see many stocks of various industries go UP as news gets worse, which in fact has been happening since the Oct 10 DOW low. Then again, maybe we fall into the abyss and the whole world goes to hell in a hand-basket. Who knows? But I think I know which bet is going to make more money. I also know that as global population continues to climb (which has never been in doubt) longer term we are going to need MORE not LESS shipping services.

"If you want to buy low and sell high, first you have to buy low!" --Steven Jon Kaplan

"NOW IS THE TIME TO BUY LOW, ESPECIALLY COMMODITY SHARES (November 9, 2008): It is ironic that the investing public talks about buying low and selling high--but everyone instead likes to buy at multi-decade peaks and is afraid to buy at multi-decade lows. No wonder the vast majority of investors lose money in the stock market even with the strong long-term upward bias for global equities. Meanwhile, corporate insiders were heavy sellers a year ago, and have been equally aggressive buyers in recent weeks. It's hardly surprising that the rich get richer and the poor get poorer.

"The following statement is cynical but true: the financial markets exist to transfer money from the middle classes to the upper classes. Wealthy people train themselves to buy when the media and the public are most gloomy, and to sell when the prevailing sentiment is either euphoric (as in early 2000) or irrationally complacent (as in late 2007)."