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Robin Heiderscheit

Robin Heiderscheit
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  • U.S. Bonds Vs. Equities: Better Value In Bonds? [View article]
    Your model assumes bonds can drive relentlessly higher, past the zero bound for coupons. So far your model is right. I doubt it will be right for more an extended period.

    Apr 23, 2015. 08:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bubble That Was Not A Bubble: Understanding SPY's Valuation [View article]
    Okay, Colorado, you are right -- 2015 isn't as bad as 1929 or or 1974 or 2000 or 2007 as a time to put new money to work in stocks -- but what kind of argument is that. ("The market is only the 5th most overvalued of all time! buy buy buy!")

    Seriously, whenever I do the math, stocks and bonds look to have slipped their long term moorings about equally, so I just sit in my current asset allocation.
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Are Short Ares Capital [View article]
    craps I agree with what you write BUT I think NM implicitly is arguing that the downside in the stock is to the $12 range, which is what a cut to $1.20-1.30 dividend would mean . . . that is significant return potential fo rthe short if it happens, say, in the next year or two
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why We Are Short Ares Capital [View article]
    NM the problem with the "incentives create reach for yield" basis of your short is that it could be applied to almost all BDCs, even those you and/or your funds are long.

    It is a bold call though. Even when very negative on BDCs I have always held my IPO ARCC through thick and thin so this is a rare instance where I am rooting against you.
    Apr 23, 2015. 09:23 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Leave The Lightbulb On For TCP Lighting [View article]
    I missed the fact that Yan is out as CE. How definite is that, i.e., is he still on the Board and/or a major shareholder?
    Apr 22, 2015. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuing CDI Corp.'s Turnaround Potential Reveals Opportunity [View article]
    If I knew with 100% certainty that they would keep the dividend I'd probably give it a whirl, but if my aunt were a man she would be my uncle I guess.

    At some point the dollar has to stop going up right? That would be a huge relief.
    Apr 21, 2015. 01:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Negative Rates - A New Macroeconomic Phenomenon [View article]
    see comment to Mr. Kramer . . . the "house" in this case is the price of a dollar and the Federal Reserve is quite aware, despite what members sometimes say, that Fed policy is more important than fiscal policy on the dollar

    the next move is going to be to raise the inflation target . . .
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Negative Rates - A New Macroeconomic Phenomenon [View article]
    Actions speak louder than words . . . I believe Mr. B is the only Fed chair in history to NEVER raise rates (correct me if I am wrong on that).

    I often lecture my children on the perils of smoking but I never miss a chance for a good cigar.
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Valuing CDI Corp.'s Turnaround Potential Reveals Opportunity [View article]
    First, great write up (although I skipped the cost of capital section, which for staffing honestly really doesn't matter that much). When the headlines start with Lehman, Sears, and IBM, you know you are taking on a challenge!

    My take is they are a $1bl sales company that unfortunately has the efficiencies of a mom and pop because they are divided into so many sectors. One staffing company I followed had a strategy of "out nationaling the big boys and out localing the mom and pops." CDI has been the exact opposite. Their margins, gross and net, reflect this lack of focus. Previous management targeted a 3.5% operating profit, which was ridiculous. Why even be in business? So aside from a decent balance sheet CDI starts in a really, really difficult position. Moreover, IMHO this business cycle is well extended. I think there will be a recession in the next five years, which could well yield a significantly better buying opportunity than today.

    The real problem here has been the board and the investor base, which has been. . . ahem . . . let's call it passive to keep things on a positive note. The board has too many Garrison cronies who are well past the point that they should have been asked to retire.

    P/E firms would be lining up to buy this at $14 if they had a more concentrated market position. A price to gross profit ratio of 2x . . . which is what you see for take outs on struggling staffing firms, would get you about $20 a share.

    You started your write up with the CEO but I think you should have started with the Board.

    BTW, how committed do you think they are to the dividend? At $10ml per year it is pretty expensive and doesn't do much toward reaching the $27 per share target for the incentive payout.
    Apr 21, 2015. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MVC Capital: A Deeply Undervalued BDC [View article]
    553829201 please work on your manners
    Apr 21, 2015. 09:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Negative Rates - A New Macroeconomic Phenomenon [View article]
    Lawrence, I disagree with one aspect of what you write -- I think the central banks would be using negative rates even if current fiscal policy was to dump money out of helicopters to old folks homes.

    To a man (or central bank) with a hammer, the world looks like a nail.
    Apr 21, 2015. 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Negative Rates - A New Macroeconomic Phenomenon [View article]
    Very important article and topic.

    Suppose it turns out that negative rates, at least negative real rates are permanent. If that happens you have to pay to be a saver and you get paid to be a spender. Such an outcome would seem to be in the interest of governments around the world.

    Much of current economic thinking would need to be totally thrown out. As one illustration, age demographic factors would need to be reversed, as young people would be wealth by virtue of a longer time period to borrow. Insurance companies would slowly go bankrupt, or their counterparties on hedges would.

    Personally, I believe that permanent negative rates would almost certainly lead to global armed conflict through one mechanism or another.
    Apr 20, 2015. 10:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sotherly Hotels: This Undiscovered Gem Can Invest At A 16% Cap Rate In A 9% Market [View article]
    How does the management contract look (price and terms) and do they own much common?
    Apr 20, 2015. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monroe Capital Corporation Is Firing On All Cylinders [View article]
    A couple of words of caution just to balance the discussion. Asked on the last conference call where we are in the business cycle for leveraged lending, the CEO said 2006 or 2007. Hmmmm. Second, although they don't break out nonrecurring sources of revenue (prepayment, origination, early payoff fees primarily), the last quarter was almost double what would be considered normal. (You can get this info in the filings but you have to look hard.) Third, they include unitranche in the "first lien" category, which is an accurate but nonetheless unusual characterization.

    But as the author notes, so far, so good, regarding their underwriting skills and the recent offering was executed flawlessly.
    Apr 17, 2015. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hudson Global - Selling At 30% Less Than Activists' Cost Basis And Offers Significant Upside [View article]
    With the empire builder CEO (finally) out I am definitely taking a second look.
    Apr 17, 2015. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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