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Robin Heiderscheit

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  • MFA Financial Is A Great REIT For The More Conservative mREIT Investor [View article]
    mainly I was just confirming that you were talking about parallel shifts in rates . . . thanks for the reply
    Mar 6, 2015. 01:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avolon: Growing, Underfollowed Business At Steep Discount To Comps, 40%+ Upside [View article]
    Thanks. Regarding #1, I told you I was lazy, just didn't read the last paragraph of the risk section. Personally, I prefer the no dividend approach given that it should reduce or eliminate the need for capital raises at what would effectively be below BV.

    #2, no surprise there.

    #3, if you don't mind a follow up, does management own shares?

    #4, again if you don't mind, what does the upper right side of the balance sheet look like in terms of maturities and fixed versus floating . . . i.e., if we are finally seeing a bit of rate lift off how vulnerable are they to spread compression

    Thanks.

    Thanks again
    Mar 6, 2015. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MFA Financial Is A Great REIT For The More Conservative mREIT Investor [View article]
    How can an equity have a "duration". I thought the definition of duration meant change in the value of a "fixed income" instrument. Perhaps what you really mean a change in the value of the portfolio due to a parallel (short and long) change in interest rates?

    Enjoy your articles esp. on MREITs.
    Mar 6, 2015. 09:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avolon: Growing, Underfollowed Business At Steep Discount To Comps, 40%+ Upside [View article]
    If you don't mind a few questions from a lazy reader:

    1) what is their capital allocation policy . . . do they pay dividends and then sell equity for growth or do they retain earnings?

    2) what was the long term track record of the management at RBS, i.e., why aren't they there any more?

    3) who owns the common?

    Thanks for any help you could offer.
    Mar 6, 2015. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BG Staffing: A Fast-Growing Niche Player With A 4.8% Dividend Yield [View article]
    Dallas, I think your figures don't account for the December 14 stock sale which results in 6.6ml shares outstanding and a market cap of about $83ml, not $70ml.

    Staffing rollups have been capital graveyards since they first became popular in the mid 1990s. Rollups look easy but they aren't. That said, so far they don't seem to be overpaying.

    The strategy of paying out most of pro forma earnings as a dividend while engaging in a series of private stock sales (the most recent was 20% below market) smacks of promotion. I note also that they have a tranche of small and expensive subdebt owned by the founders that could have been prepaid instead of the dividend.

    They seem to have a concentration of business in Texas, which could be an issue going forward depending on what oil and gas do.

    Quick question: I couldn't find a proxy statement on Edgar. Are they exempt from proxy filing under the Jobs Act or did I miss it? I am wondering who owns the common? As of the IPO officers and directors owned only 6% of the company.

    Thanks for the write up and any help you can offer.
    Mar 5, 2015. 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fairchild Semiconductor: Ignored And Unloved Cash Flow/Buyback Story With 50%+ Upside [View article]
    Author is probably right but book value has been flat forever and they have plowed half the current market cap into R&D -- while seeing sales decline -- over the past several years.

    I get that they have religion now and they are definitely a take out prospect but I think a good bit of the take out premium is already in the stock. If you told me they could somehow cut R&D (current spend is about equal to EBITDA)dramatically I would like the idea alot better.
    Mar 4, 2015. 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious Metals: The Die Is Cast, Why Would You Buy Gold In This Environment? [View article]
    In a world where everything turns on asset prices you can't have it both ways. If we have a "fast, frightening, historic" bust it won't be like 2000 where it didn't affect the real economy it will be like 1929 or 2008 where it did. JMHO.
    Mar 3, 2015. 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apollo Residential: Stock Valuation Stays Compelling [View article]
    The company states book value is $19.12 . . . how are you getting to $24+? Thanks.

    http://bit.ly/18JQn1m

    P.S.

    I don't own any MREITs right now but if I had to own one this might be it.
    Mar 3, 2015. 11:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How A $50,000 Lawsuit Created A $100 Million Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Really interesting story, and although I am passing personally here, I think the author presented the story with good balance.

    There is a chance of massive fr&%d here but it is far from certain. They came public with name brand accountants and lawyers and as the author states have been in business a long time. OTOH the float is small, the company is closely controlled by the Yans, and the related party transactions are ridiculously complex for such a small company.

    The only place I would disagree with the author is with regard to the financial situation here. Current assets and current liabilities are about 1.07 to 1 as of the last Q. I would not call that a "remarkable financial position".
    Mar 3, 2015. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Volatility - Going Higher [View article]
    Martin, thanks for the reply. I wasn't looking quite as far back . . . only June of 2013 (25% or so ago on the S&P 500) where you wrote with partial reference to stocks:

    "We strongly believe higher USD rates vol will ripple through other asset classes and provide more cross-asset opportunities going forward"

    As far as changing your mind goes, I change mine too when the facts change -- no argument there.
    Mar 3, 2015. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Volatility - Going Higher [View article]
    I read the author's blog from time to time. I think it is fair to say that his current opinion (volatility is heading higher and late in the bull market) have not changed for quite a while. I certainly am willing to be corrected if wrong (and it doesn't mean the author isn't correct now!)
    Mar 2, 2015. 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corporate Resource Services: Closely Held, Unrealistic Expectations, And Few Options; Build Short With 50-70% Return Possible [View article]
    There is no more reliable way to make money in the stock market than shorting staffing industry roll ups. Period.
    Mar 2, 2015. 09:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can The Same Bubble Happen Twice? [View article]
    Joe, slightly off topic but that is a set of four superior articles!
    Feb 27, 2015. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short-Term VIX Futures Products Should Be Avoided Until Better Opportunities Arise [View article]
    Been a sea change lately, I would say that if you are long only this is one of the best times to be long XIV in many months. I personally do short only, though.
    Feb 27, 2015. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Kid Yourself: Stocks Are Just As Overvalued Today As They Were In 2000 [View article]
    price to sales is hanging right around previous bubble tops
    Feb 26, 2015. 09:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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