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Robin Heiderscheit

Robin Heiderscheit
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  • Orchid Island Capital Plummets, One Analyst Predicted It [View article]
    CWM has quickly become IMHO the best mREIT guy on SA. Enjoy the articles before they go behind a pay wall.
    Jun 29, 2015. 03:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fund Favorability Shifts Back To AllianzGI Convertibles & Income Fund I [View article]
    Looks like as of today these funds may finally be trading at a (small) discount to NAV.
    Jun 29, 2015. 01:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Junk Bond Funds Offer The Most Attractive Yield For Investors: A Look At The Western Asset High Income Fund II [View article]
    After three years, HIX has not done well, currently quoted at $7.38 and yielding 11%. Rare for a Western bond fund, it has managed poor returns combined with high fees.

    However, I am looking at it as a trading long here. It has swung from a 14% premium to a 10% discount. Might be overdone. The current portfolio is performing poorly, however, relative to the indices so it certainly has more downside potential.
    Jun 29, 2015. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon: Best Value In Years [View article]
    Okay thanks. I very much like your Sprint catalyst idea but don't think much of the idea that it is cheap on historic measures. Trailing PE and trailing PS are just about in line with ten year averages. I think Sprint might be a catalyst to return to overvaluation, which is just as good!

    http://bit.ly/1GNHG20
    Jun 26, 2015. 09:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Verizon: Best Value In Years [View article]
    I don't know much about Verizon. I see EPS for the past five years has been 90 cents 80 cents 85 cents $4 and $2.82. Estimates are for $3.82.

    Why are earnings so volatile for VZ?
    Jun 25, 2015. 01:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Container Shipping Rates From China To U.S., Europe Collapse [View article]
    Would be interesting to see a longer term chart of those indices.
    Jun 24, 2015. 11:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Container Shipping Rates From China To U.S., Europe Collapse [View article]
    Turns out that massive reserve creation is short term deflationary . . . who knew?
    Jun 24, 2015. 11:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willdan Group - Great Business, Unjustified Selloff, 40%-60% Upside [View article]
    There are a hundred companies that do these energy projects. Actually there are far more than a 100. I used to own one but sold it to Johnson Controls.

    Here is a link to a free database that shows they have never hit 9% for a full year.

    http://bit.ly/18GeL0a

    I think 6% over the long run would be really really good for this industry. It is INTENSELY competitive, as the CEO said himself on the last call.
    Jun 19, 2015. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Willdan Group - Great Business, Unjustified Selloff, 40%-60% Upside [View article]
    They have never, at least for the twenty years I have data, hit the 9% operating margin level. The trailing twelve month number is about 7.8%. I think in a highly competitive set of industries a 5% margin would be solid. Using that number, WLDN is right around fair value now.

    That said, the stock price here clearly has been a random walk. It has seen $5 and $18 recently, both of which were ridiculous.
    Jun 17, 2015. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corporate Resources; The 'Big Mo' From Obamacare And Acquisitions [View article]
    It appears this story is over with a 100% loss. The staffing industry is full of pump and dumps . . . they were big in the 90s, went away for awhile, but seem to be back with a new generation of small cap growth investors.
    Jun 16, 2015. 10:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Household Debt Levels Too High, Again? [View article]
    "we entered a secular bull market" in early 2013

    I didn't know the author was being bought and sold in a market.

    Seriously, what asset is he talking about?

    Very good summary of the facts though!
    Jun 12, 2015. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: A Deeper Look At The Most Hated Stock On Wall Street [View article]
    yeah, I quit reading after that basic mistake, following on several others
    Jun 12, 2015. 09:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Wells Fargo Is Wrong About Mortgage REITs And Annaly Capital [View article]
    This is probably the best time since late 2013 to buy vanilla mREITS . . . but that ain't saying much!
    Jun 11, 2015. 01:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lime Energy's Depressed Valuation Presents Opportunity [View article]
    Not sure what you mean when you say there is no transcript of the last conference call. Here is a link for anyone interested.

    http://bit.ly/1e61NPO

    Also I think Bison invested $11.75ml, not $10. You can correct on that if I am wrong.

    Totally agree that if they get to breakeven this should rerate to 2.5x or so of gross profit, which would be about a double.

    I struggle to see how they get to meaningful profitability though. Taking the last quarter as an example they did $18ml with $5.4ml gross profit. At $100ml in sales they would have about $30ml in gross profit and run rate expense of about $24ml for an operating profit of $6ml. After interest costs and the unusual expenses $4ml is probably realistic. (And in a competitive industry that would be about typical for pre tax margin.) At 15x of untaxed) earnings you also get close to a double.

    I shorted this years ago and covered too soon to make much. It looks like, in a picked over market, a decent long now. Thanks for writing it up.
    Jun 11, 2015. 12:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Schwab U.S. REIT ETF Is On Sale; Who's Buying With Me? [View article]
    Even if calculated on earnings yield, most REITs would have a bond equivalent duration of 10-15 so if rates go up 3.5% in a year you would be looking at a 40-50% decline across the board.
    Jun 10, 2015. 08:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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