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Robin Heiderscheit

Robin Heiderscheit
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AA, AAN, AAPL, ACAS, ACCO, ACG, ACRE, ACTG, ADHD, AES, AGNC, AGX, AHH, AI, AIF, AIG, AKS, ALFA, ALTR, ALU, AMD, AMLJ, AMZN, ANFI, ANH, ANLY, APT, APTS, ARCB, ARCC, ARCP, ARI, ARR, ART, AVNW, AWF, AWLCF, BAB, BAC, BAMM, BANC, BBEP, BBK, BBRY, BBSI, BBW, BBY, BCS, BDCL, BDCV, BDL, BDMS, BGFV, BKCC, BKN, BLC, BNCC, BOBS, BOE, BPOP, BRDR, BREUF, BRT, BWLD, BWP, CAZFF, CB, CCG, CCK, CCNI, CEFL, CIM, CMO, CMOH, CMTL, CNRD, CNSI, CODI, COH, COLFF, CORN, COWN, CRM, CRMB, CRNT, CROX, CRRC, CRRS, CRUS, CSC, CSCO, CSWC, CTL, CTSH, CYS, D, DATA, DCIX, DE, DEST, DFRG, DGTC, DIA, DLTOF, DNP, DPS, DRL, DWSN, DX, EAT, EDGW, EEM, EFC, EMR, EPR, EQR, EROC, ESYS, ETY, EWH, EWI, EWP, EXC, EXD, EXFO, F, FB, FBIZ, FCX, FDX, FEZ, FIX, FRAN, FRD, FRF, FRFHF, FSC, FTPLF, FTR, FULL, FXE, GAIN, GARS, GCVRZ, GDL, GE, GHM, GILD, GLAD, GLD, GLDI, GLL, GLW, GMAN, GNI, GRX, GSVC, GTATQ, GWRE, GWW, GY, HAS, HCLP, HCOM, HD, HGG, HIBB, HKSHF, HMN, HNI, HRZN, HSII, HSON, HTD, HTGC, IAG, ICA, IDCC, IDT, IEF, IESC, IMOS, INTC, INTX, IQNT, IVH, IVR, IYR, JCP, JCS, JGW, JJG, JLMC, JMBA, JOEZ, JPM, KCAP, KCG, KDUS, KELYA, KFRC, KIRK, KKR, KMB, KMP, KSW, LACO, LAND, LEE, LF, LIME, LIN, LOW, LPDX, LSE, LUK, LXFR, LXK, MAAL, MAIN, MBND, MCC, MCGC, MCRAA, MDCA, MDT, MFI, MIL, MKL, MKTO, MMM, MORL, MRCC, MS, MSM, MSN, MVC, NBB, NGPC, NICK, NID, NLY, NMFC, NOK, NOOF, NTAP, NTI, NUAN, NYMT, OGZPY, OIIM, ORC, ORCL, ORKLY, PCCC, PCEF, PCTY, PCXCQ, PDLI, PDTRF, PETS, PFLT, PGH, PHDG, PICO, PKW, PMCA, PMCT, PNNT, POEFF, PRCP, PSEC, PTGI, QCRH, QEPC, QQQ, QQQX, QUMU, RCS, RFI, RGS, RMT, RPKIF, RRD, RSH, RSTI, SALE, SAR, SBNY, SCM, SDT, SH, SHLO, SID, SIGM, SIR, SKUL, SKX, SLRC, SLV, SNAK, SNH, SNHFY, SNY, SO, SPA, SPE, SPLV, SPRT, SPXU, SPY, STB, STMP, STO, STRL, SUNS, SVU, T, TCPC, TEF, TEO, TEP, TEVA, TGT, THHY, TICC, TIME, TINY, TIXC, TLT, TMF, TMV, TRUP, TSYS, TTFS, TVIX, TWGP, TWO, TYG, TZA, UBAAF, UGA, UTG, UVV, VCV, VGI, VKI, VLKAY, VQT, VQTS, VSEC, VSH, VTRO, VVI, VWO, VXX, WFM, WHR, WILC, WINN, WLDN, WMC, WRLS, WU, XHB, XIV, XLF, XLP, XPLT, XRT, XRTX, XRX, XVIX, XVZ, Z, ZFC, ZIV
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  • Credit Spread Update [View article]
    btw I also think CBP is overstating the case when he said there are "no signs" of weakness spreading outside of energy . . . mining and gambling have also showed significant weakness the past few months
    Jul 29, 2015. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Spread Update [View article]
    Fred is daily which works for me
    Jul 29, 2015. 11:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Spread Update [View article]
    totally agree on China

    Chinese stock market is still up huge year over year . . . so far just a moderate retracement . . . but CNBC must fill airtime somehow now that Greece is off the front pages
    Jul 29, 2015. 11:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Spread Update [View article]
    ask and ye shall receive haha

    http://tinyurl.com/o2j...
    Jul 29, 2015. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Spread Update [View article]
    I also follow the 2 year swap as a leading indicator and interpret it differently. I see it as rising steadily since the middle of last year and NOT confirming the mini rebound in low rated credit observed earlier this year. It is low and rising, the most dangerous setup.
    Jul 29, 2015. 09:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BDCs At 52-Week Lows Before Q2 2015 Earnings [View article]
    Okay I looked at the five minute chart and the big volume pickup came right at $15 so I wonder if a sizeable position or positions had stop orders without a limit?

    I can't decide whether to add or not especially since it has been so slow to get off the mat today. This is a trade for me and I don't want to get stuck with an investment haha.
    Jul 28, 2015. 12:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BDCs At 52-Week Lows Before Q2 2015 Earnings [View article]
    Under the concepts link some stuff is covered but for example "option adjusted spread" is not covered.

    Maybe try investopedia?
    Jul 28, 2015. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Prudent Portfolio For A Melt-Up Or A Meltdown Redux [View article]
    Agree with Hardog on the table.

    I have sworn off structured VIX products in favor of just shorting (or buying) the underlying contracts. VQT looks great in a trending market but has been a big disappointment over the past year as the market started moving sideways. I haven't studied VQTS though I freely admit.
    Jul 28, 2015. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BDCs At 52-Week Lows Before Q2 2015 Earnings [View article]
    BofA tracks several categories of debt that have credit risk versus the price of debt that has no credit risk, i.e., U.S. government debt.

    When low rated credits are in demand spreads are low. That would be like 2013-14 and 2005-07. Historically that has been a bad time to buy low rated debt or BDCs. When low rated credits are out of favor spreads are high. That would be when recession fears are high, like 2001-03, 2008-12.

    Here is the long term chart of B rated credits, which I consider to be a good proxy for the type of debt on which many BDCs focus.

    http://bit.ly/1DLQoKM

    Hope that helps. Obviously just a rough indicator. When spreads are low and rising it signals danger IMHO. Today's chart looks like 1999, 2007, and early 2014 -- bad times to put money to work. OTOH it also looks like November of 2011, which was a great entry point.

    How's that for a useless post!
    Jul 28, 2015. 12:23 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BDCs At 52-Week Lows Before Q2 2015 Earnings [View article]
    @foodude I actually feel SUNS is one of the more volatile BDCs day-to-day but have no stats to back that up

    I have no idea what happened late yesterday . . . the bear case would be that it is bumping up against leverage limits (regulatory and loan covenant) and needs to continue to pivot out of low yielding first liens into the nonqualified bucket OR SUNS would be in a potential forced delevering situation in a downturn.

    But why the big sell yesterday, I dunno. It is in no mans land now, down about 18% from NAV, not quite a "penalty box" BDC, for which it would need to decline another $1, but no hope of getting back to NAV and being able to issue equity, either. No energy exposure, very little sub debt and nonqualified, so I just don't know.
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BDCs At 52-Week Lows Before Q2 2015 Earnings [View article]
    Time and price, time and price.

    While subordinated debt spreads are no longer at ridiculous levels and yields are back to or even slightly above December 2014 peaks I think it is too soon to be a buyer with both hands UNLESS you have a very strong stomach or a very long term view. See this chart of Single B spreads.

    http://bit.ly/1DLQoKM

    Personally stuck a toe in on SUNS at $15.50 and saw it drop 6% yesterday on no news so that may be influencing my bad attitude haha. I note BDC Reporter maintains a generally negative outlook. I also think HRZN could be an interesting speculation here although a dividend cut is coming sooner or later.
    Jul 28, 2015. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To (Re)Focus On AllianzGI's Convertible/Income Bond Fund [View article]
    NCV and NCZ have very good long term track records, although it could be beta rather than alpha, based on the recent underperformance.

    And yes, if you see economic acceleration in the cards it is hard to see how you could go wrong here.
    Jul 28, 2015. 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Volt Information Sciences: The Turnaround Could Yield 100%+ Over 12-18 Months [View article]
    @ac011

    54 days isn't great but yes it is pretty standard . . . you can see 30-60 but most of the medium and larger players are above 45

    Company should be sold and is probably worth $16-22 in a private sale. I recently repurchased my shares sold last year.

    With that said, there are no guarantees here. They have a substandard client base and balance sheet. An ill timed recession could still make this a zero.
    Jul 28, 2015. 09:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • West Town Incredibly Priced At 5X 2015 EPS; Identical Competitor IPO Today Live Oak Priced At 28X EPS [View article]
    Would also be interested in a website address for the holding company and their fililng status.
    Jul 27, 2015. 01:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orchid Island Capital: Can It Get Any Easier? [View article]
    NoMore I sold all my mREITs except a small holding of DX when Bimini brought this out. Their ability to take a company public to a pretty good reception no less was to me a bell ringing at the top for the sector.
    Jul 26, 2015. 04:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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