Seeking Alpha

Robin Heiderscheit

Robin Heiderscheit
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View Robin Heiderscheit's Comments BY TICKER:
AA, AAN, AAPL, ACAS, ACCO, ACG, ACRE, ACTG, ADHD, AES, AGNC, AGX, AHH, AI, AIF, AIG, AKS, ALFA, ALTR, ALU, AMD, AMLJ, AMZN, ANFI, ANH, ANLY, APT, APTS, ARCB, ARCC, ARCP, ARI, ARR, ART, AVNW, AWF, AWLCF, BAB, BAC, BAMM, BANC, BBEP, BBK, BBRY, BBSI, BBW, BBY, BCS, BDCL, BDCV, BDL, BDMS, BGFV, BKCC, BKN, BLC, BNCC, BOBS, BOE, BPOP, BRDR, BREUF, BRT, BWLD, BWP, CAZFF, CB, CCG, CCK, CCNI, CEFL, CIM, CMO, CMOH, CMTL, CNRD, CNSI, CODI, COH, COLFF, CORN, COWN, CRM, CRMB, CRNT, CROX, CRRC, CRRS, CRUS, CSC, CSCO, CSWC, CTL, CTSH, CYS, D, DATA, DCIX, DE, DEST, DFRG, DGTC, DIA, DLTOF, DNP, DPS, DRL, DWSN, DX, EAT, EDGW, EEM, EFC, EMR, EPR, EQR, EROC, ESYS, ETY, EWH, EWI, EWP, EXC, EXD, EXFO, F, FB, FBIZ, FCX, FDX, FEZ, FIX, FRAN, FRD, FRF, FRFHF, FSC, FTPLF, FTR, FULL, FXE, GAIN, GARS, GCVRZ, GDL, GE, GHM, GILD, GLAD, GLD, GLDI, GLL, GLW, GMAN, GNI, GRX, GSVC, GTATQ, GWRE, GWW, GY, HAS, HCLP, HCOM, HD, HGG, HIBB, HKSHF, HMN, HNI, HRZN, HSII, HSON, HTD, HTGC, IAG, ICA, IDCC, IDT, IEF, IESC, IMOS, INTC, INTX, IQNT, IVH, IVR, IYR, JCP, JCS, JGW, JJG, JLMC, JMBA, JOEZ, JPM, KCAP, KCG, KDUS, KELYA, KFRC, KIRK, KKR, KMB, KMP, KSW, LACO, LAND, LEE, LF, LIME, LIN, LOW, LPDX, LSE, LUK, LXFR, LXK, MAAL, MAIN, MBND, MCC, MCGC, MCRAA, MDCA, MDT, MFI, MIL, MKL, MKTO, MMM, MORL, MRCC, MS, MSM, MSN, MVC, NBB, NGPC, NICK, NID, NLY, NMFC, NOK, NOOF, NTAP, NTI, NUAN, NYMT, OGZPY, OIIM, ORC, ORCL, ORKLY, PCCC, PCEF, PCTY, PCXCQ, PDLI, PDTRF, PETS, PFLT, PGH, PHDG, PICO, PKW, PMCA, PMCT, PNNT, POEFF, PRCP, PSEC, PTGI, QCRH, QEPC, QQQ, QQQX, QUMU, RCS, RFI, RGS, RMT, RPKIF, RRD, RSH, RSTI, SALE, SAR, SBNY, SCM, SDT, SH, SHLO, SID, SIGM, SIR, SKUL, SKX, SLRC, SLV, SNAK, SNH, SNHFY, SNY, SO, SPA, SPE, SPLV, SPRT, SPXU, SPY, STB, STMP, STO, STRL, SUNS, SVU, T, TCPC, TEF, TEO, TEP, TEVA, TGT, THHY, TICC, TIME, TINY, TIXC, TLT, TMF, TMV, TRUP, TSYS, TTFS, TVIX, TWGP, TWO, TYG, TZA, UBAAF, UGA, UTG, UVV, VCV, VGI, VKI, VLKAY, VQT, VQTS, VSEC, VSH, VTRO, VVI, VWO, VXX, WFM, WHR, WILC, WINN, WLDN, WMC, WRLS, WU, XHB, XIV, XLF, XLP, XPLT, XRT, XRTX, XRX, XVIX, XVZ, Z, ZFC, ZIV
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • Forget $2000 an Ounce; Gold Set to Plummet [View article]
    I have no comment on gold but I spit out my coffee laughing when Jason pumped all those new $9 per hour part time no benefits jobs at Toys R Us and KSS for the holidays as a reason to buy stocks. Please, that's just evidence that the 50% of the American economy tied neither to the government nor international growth is a smoking ruin.
    Oct 7, 2010. 09:04 AM | 33 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Financial Repression Will Fail [View article]
    The simple answer is that private savings is discouraged. BTW, we should form a law firm together with our names.
    Nov 15, 2012. 01:00 PM | 18 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackrock's BOE Dividend Fund: A Hefty 12.6% Yield [View article]
    Wow, this is SA at its absolute worst and I have to say I feel sorry for the author's clients I mean sheep.

    Just in case anyone is paying attention, the BOE payout is not a "dividend" its a "distribution".

    The fund the author touts reports that 94% of its payout is return of capital for 2010. The NAV has declined relentlessly since the IPO. (I am trying really hard not to be sarcastic here so please give me credit for self-restraint.)
    Dec 20, 2010. 04:44 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Financial Repression Will Fail [View article]
    Great article. Fitting that you published it coincident with Ron Paul's valedictory. He concludes that we are on the way to a corporatist state -- and possibly fascism. He appropriately puts the blame . . . for the first time I believe . . . on the loss of virtue in our society.

    Anyway, you nailed precisely the problem with financial repression is that it prevents capital formation.
    Nov 15, 2012. 12:19 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Aviat Networks Hand Over Fist [View article]
    Gotta call you out on your first paragraph ("the current CEO took over in 2011, so I don't think enough time has passed to label him unreliable").

    Kissner, the current COB, joined Stratex in 1995. Pangia, the CEO, was promoted in 2011 from head of sales, a position he took in 2009 after leaving Nortel when that company filed for bankruptcy and liquidated. He was head of global sales for them.

    With one exception the entire board has been there since 2007, when the current incarnation of the company was formed.

    This may be the greatest trade in the world but this is NOT a new team. It is a team with an established track record.

    Since this team arrived in 2007, book value has been cut by 80%, there has never been an annual GAAP profit, no dividend has ever been paid, $250ml has been spent on R&D while sales decline, the share price is down 90%, I could go on and on.

    Interestingly, all covered executives "earned" maximum bonuses for the company's performance in fiscal 2013, despite a sizeable GAAP loss. Their change of control severance payments are egregious -- Pangia alone is entitled to more than $2ml. The most recent insider stock sale was at $1.87 per share last month.
    Apr 18, 2014. 02:25 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I'm Buying Aviat Networks Hand Over Fist [View article]
    Ultima I did some work on this too and passed for now, too.

    Officers and directors own virtually no stock and pay themselves millions of dollars per year . . . here is the link to the proxy if anyone is interested. There is zero board supervision here and with one exception the major shareholders are all passive.

    http://1.usa.gov/1eQtI5g

    I can't be bothered buying a store when I have to worry about whether the store manager is going to steal the goodies while I am not looking.

    I would buy this above $3 when an activist gets involved and the board and management are ousted, although there are extensive protections in place to prevent an outside takeover. Maybe Blue Mountain will get active.
    Apr 18, 2014. 09:37 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Medley Capital: Another Gift From Year-End Tax Loss Selling [View article]
    I think Buzz gets the better of the argument here. Not sure if Wells Fargo has put out their annual BDC analysis yet but I will be looking specifically for the vintage analysis details for MCC. As Buzz points out they originated between half and two thirds of the portfolio at what were clearly very high valuations. In the last downturn and even in the 2001-02 downturn vintage analysis was the key to who did okay and who did not.

    I bought a little MCC here a few weeks ago but am taking a "time and price" approach myself . . . I will be signficantly lower or a few months from now (maybe higher) but not before.

    Making the assumption that management got a "wake up call" is very dangerous in BDC land based on past historical results with other firms.
    Jan 9, 2015. 10:46 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Current U.S. Stock Market Collapse Makes No Sense [View article]
    Wake we up when we get "panic" . . . we have collapsed all the way back to . . . February prices. This is a routine correction; the people in a panic are the bulls who can only accept one way markets.
    May 23, 2012. 04:38 PM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fifth Street Finance Has 50% Upside From These Prices [View article]
    Hmmmm . . . if the share price recovers to a premium to NAV as the author posits the dividend yield will be around 6.5% . . . somehow not seeing it.

    While Todd Owens is an improvement, FSAM still signs his checks. The first and only big move so far has been to cut the dividend. Not particularly encouraging as far as shareholder friendlieness is concerned.

    ROE has been around 6% under FSAM and over half the current investment book was originated into the frothy late '12 through '14 environment. For me anyway, that setup deserves a hefty discount to book value. 25% sounds about right, which is where FSC trades.
    Mar 17, 2015. 11:45 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Part V: Hedged Convexity Capture Continues To Be The World's Best-Performing ETF Strategy [View article]
    I wonder how many run of the mill investors (like myself) using discount brokers lacking tens of millions of dollars to spend can actually get a borrow on the securities mentioned? I mean I guess that for most folks the author's suggestions seem to be well known but theoretical trades.
    Mar 26, 2014. 02:00 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital - The Slippery Slope Begins [View article]
    "mREITs make their profits by trading the interest rate curve, i.e, buying short-term lower rate mortgages and selling longer-term mortgages which bear higher rates. The difference between the two is their revenue"

    Kind of liked the piece but the above statement is wacky
    Oct 15, 2012. 09:21 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bond Market to Fed: Your QE2 Logic Was Wrong [View article]
    Respectfully, you ask the wrong question. The question is not whether QE2 has lowered rates overall. The more apt question is whether QE2 has kept rates from rising more than they otherwise would have risen. And I think the answer is yes. As investors shift out of bonds and into stocks, the Fed backfills the demand for bonds. As you know, the Fed now is the largest holder of U.S. Treasury debt and by this summer will dwarf all other holders.

    I have no idea whether quantitative easing will prove to be sound long term policy but there is little doubt that it is helping to keep interest rates, especially short term rates, down. The biggest impact on the real economy is that the government is able to afford the big FICA tax cut this year, which is definitely goosing growth as American consumers rush to spend their anticpated windfall as quickly as possible.
    Feb 7, 2011. 03:47 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Default Has Already Begun [View article]
    thank you for correcting him . . . he gets to have his opinion but not his own facts . . . this is the problem reasonable people face, though, low information voters like Zankudo, who will cancel out your vote in the next election!
    Oct 15, 2013. 10:07 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Business Development Companies' Changing Approach to Balance Sheet Risk [View article]
    And of the debt that remains, for several a nice chunk is now SBIC financing, which is semi-permanent capital (generally ten years) or converts that are not putable for several years or more.

    Thanks for your continuing great work following this sector.
    Jan 20, 2011. 10:00 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Municipal Bonds Aren't Worth the Risk [View article]
    Yeah, Moody's says munis are fine, so what could go wrong?
    Jan 13, 2011. 04:44 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,090 Comments
1,915 Likes