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  • Individual Investor Optimism Rises To 3-Week High [View article]
    I checked the history of AAII. it basically random-walked or simply matched the stock market after move-averaging the data. It can't be used as a tool to time the market.
    Jul 3, 2014. 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Detailed Case To Short The S&P 500: This Time Isn't Different [View article]
    It is hard to predict a top Go Lakers. People, who announced overvalue to Nasdaq before year 2000, felt wrong and super frustrated as they saw the market moved 40% more after their crash prediction. However if they waited long enough (say just a few more months) they should have proved they were right for long run. Even if they shorted the market and suffered from big loss, they had earned big money eventually after such a big crash. Same happened to the house market in 2007 (if you read Michael Levis's The big short)
    Mar 25, 2014. 12:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BFC Financial: A Massively Undervalued Catalyst-Driven Equity [View article]
    Thank you for the reply special sit.

    At least we got better opportunity now to buy BFCF and BBX. Wondering why STERLING NEIL sold around 200K shares lately at $3.55 and $3.7. Although insider sell is not a big thing, I always hate to see it happens.
    Mar 25, 2014. 12:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BFC Financial: A Massively Undervalued Catalyst-Driven Equity [View article]
    the price movement of BFCF is following that of BBX. The financial number of BBX is worrying me (e.g. revenue, 1.12/share, Diluted EPS -1.04, Operating Cash Flow (ttm):-15.63M. None of the numbers supports a stock at $22. The only positive part is the revenue growth. Also the article is too late here, both BFCF and BBX have moved more than 8x, the price today has covered all the good stories of the stock if there's any.

    It is a stock facing a short term big correction at least. If BBX stops its revenue growth, it is a stock worth only $2 per share.
    Mar 7, 2014. 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Buyers: 12 Reasons Why The Current Sky High Natural Gas Price Isn't Here To Stay [View article]
    Well, I bought UGAZ when it was around $22 after it broke $20 (a line that became the support line after broken from technical chart reading). I sold it when it moved to around $39 (it was close to the price $40 topped on Apr 2013 from chart reading). Then I bought it back at $33 and $26. I'm riding it now with some paper profit. I hope that it will keep going up from here. If we believe Natural Gas has a big cycle (multi-years cycle) as what Oil, gold and other commodity has. Today maybe just the beginning of a long up-trend. Of cause we all know there will be pullback and small cycles in a big cycle. The road could be bumpy.
    Feb 22, 2014. 01:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Buyers: 12 Reasons Why The Current Sky High Natural Gas Price Isn't Here To Stay [View article]
    Want to add one more thing. When everybody see the reasons of why a stock or investment target moved up or down, it is time to change the direction. We have seen so many reasons mentioned in this article to educate us why nature gas should be low. Did the author of the article say the same reasons before the price of the natural gas topped many years ago? I don't think he did. Think about what most people said about gold before it was topped? (hint: everybody was able to list 10 reasons why gold should keep going up right before the gold started a down trend.). AGAIN when the reasons for a up or down are so obvious to everybody, the trend will change!
    Feb 22, 2014. 01:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware Buyers: 12 Reasons Why The Current Sky High Natural Gas Price Isn't Here To Stay [View article]
    We have to keep one thing in mind, the natural gas production chart shared in this article is not telling the future, instead it is telling the past. The chart actually told us one truth "the production is topped". when the new technology or whatever the reason that supported the growth of the ng production achieved its top, it will only go down. However more and more gas will keep being consumed. The ng price should go up to super high. I think $8 is so conservative.
    Feb 22, 2014. 01:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal Secret Hiding In The Gas Futures Market [View article]
    Everything that people can invest follows a cycle (up and down) no matter it is gold, stock, natural gas or currency. When its price went up or down to an extreme position, it will change to the different direction to achieve another extreme position at the other end. Natural Gas has been down for a while. if you take a look this chart (http://bit.ly/1i5lRP1) you will see where we are today. Nobody can predict where the bottom is, but it is at the relative low position. We have to admit that it went up so fast on Friday, a pullback is not a surprise today. However, should the strong rally on Friday be a warning to the bear?
    Jan 27, 2014. 07:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Brigus Shareholders Accept Primero Mining's Offer? [View article]
    Account to Yahoo Finance
    Operating Cash Flow (ttm): 36.91M
    Levered Free Cash Flow (ttm): 6.95M
    Dec 27, 2013. 11:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Brigus Shareholders Accept Primero Mining's Offer? [View article]
    BRD has $36.91M operating cash flow. PPP has around $72M.
    So the Cash Flow vs Cash Flow is 1:2, the stock price is $0.8:$4.6 = 1:5.8

    BRD has $0.06 Diluted EPS (ttm) and PPP has $0.32 EPS.
    EPS vs EPS is 1:5.3, again stock price is 1:5.8 (this ratio is close)

    BRD's PE is 14 and PPP is around 14 as well.
    so PE vs PE is around 1:1, again stock price is 1:5.8

    So from the number above, BRD actually looks better than PPP. PPP's number will not be worse if after buying BRD. and if PPP has better management team than BRD, they can make the number even better for long run.
    Dec 16, 2013. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Greece's Management Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    Hi OpusNephilim,

    Thank you for the comment. Buying it now is a risky trade but it may worth it. I had same concern regarding dilution to many stocks in the past like what you have to NBG. I had seen so many stocks that offered new shares (a lot of new shares) when being hit badly after year 2008 and had huge dilution. However what surprised me was after the stocks went down to hit the price of new shares, they rallied up and up without seeing back. I think that the cash and believe brought in by new investors will write off the damage of the dilution. It will be actually a positive sign if people want to invest into the company by buying new shares when it was in super ugly business situation (you know the more buyers the better). As long as those companies survive and be able to recover as the economic recover, people will keep buying, investors only look at future. So questions here are 1. whether they get enough investors to buy new shares, 2. will the country or Europe recover from here.

    Thanks
    Gary
    May 30, 2013. 12:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Bank Greece's Management Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    After 1:10, the price is at $6.5 at this moment. It actually tried $5.6. So technically it gave everyone chance to buy at good price that kind of match the price of new offerings. Based on the data I read above, I think the bank is on right track. And if the country start recovering, this stock will go to $65.
    May 30, 2013. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Thoughts On The Recent Surge In National Bank Of Greece [View article]
    I sold the NBG today after reading the news. Saw my profit from around 100% down to only 50%. I have experienced similar things many times before. A company announced new shares at a certain price and the stock price dropped to the price (sometimes 20% below) of the new shares the same day or a few days later. However because the new offers helped bring in cash, the company's financial situation was improved. The stock could start moving up after hitting the price of new offering. The point is "It has to go down to the price of the new shares". If the news of NBG is true, the stock price of new shares will be $0.55, it is far below today's price. better sell now for safety.
    May 21, 2013. 01:23 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Think Zynga Rallied Yesterday [View article]
    We have to understand Zynga's future is not on its own. Its success or failure will follow the success or failure of social network and mobile eco-system in general. If we believe social network and mobile is the future, we should believe in Zynga. The only thing Zynga should do is to keep its original founders on board and let them to figure a way out. What Zynga's team frustrated me is that they kept losing original executives. I hate to see founders cash out and walk away.
    Jan 29, 2013. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Samsung Tizen: Announcing The Death Of Mobile For Microsoft And RIM? [View article]
    I think Samsung is announcing the death of itself. A company that never did a working OS before has little chance to make one right. Take a look how long it took Google and Microsoft to have a working OS eventually? more than 3 years! Even if Samsung comes out a working OS in 3 years, is it too late to the game?
    Jan 11, 2013. 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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