National Bank Greece's Management Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
Hi OpusNephilim,
Thank you for the comment. Buying it now is a risky trade but it may worth it. I had same concern regarding dilution to many stocks in the past like what you have to NBG. I had seen so many stocks that offered new shares (a lot of new shares) when being hit badly after year 2008 and had huge dilution. However what surprised me was after the stocks went down to hit the price of new shares, they rallied up and up without seeing back. I think that the cash and believe brought in by new investors will write off the damage of the dilution. It will be actually a positive sign if people want to invest into the company by buying new shares when it was in super ugly business situation (you know the more buyers the better). As long as those companies survive and be able to recover as the economic recover, people will keep buying, investors only look at future. So questions here are 1. whether they get enough investors to buy new shares, 2. will the country or Europe recover from here.
National Bank Greece's Management Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
After 1:10, the price is at $6.5 at this moment. It actually tried $5.6. So technically it gave everyone chance to buy at good price that kind of match the price of new offerings. Based on the data I read above, I think the bank is on right track. And if the country start recovering, this stock will go to $65.
Some Thoughts On The Recent Surge In National Bank Of Greece [View article]
I sold the NBG today after reading the news. Saw my profit from around 100% down to only 50%. I have experienced similar things many times before. A company announced new shares at a certain price and the stock price dropped to the price (sometimes 20% below) of the new shares the same day or a few days later. However because the new offers helped bring in cash, the company's financial situation was improved. The stock could start moving up after hitting the price of new offering. The point is "It has to go down to the price of the new shares". If the news of NBG is true, the stock price of new shares will be $0.55, it is far below today's price. better sell now for safety.
Why I Think Zynga Rallied Yesterday [View article]
We have to understand Zynga's future is not on its own. Its success or failure will follow the success or failure of social network and mobile eco-system in general. If we believe social network and mobile is the future, we should believe in Zynga. The only thing Zynga should do is to keep its original founders on board and let them to figure a way out. What Zynga's team frustrated me is that they kept losing original executives. I hate to see founders cash out and walk away.
Samsung Tizen: Announcing The Death Of Mobile For Microsoft And RIM? [View article]
I think Samsung is announcing the death of itself. A company that never did a working OS before has little chance to make one right. Take a look how long it took Google and Microsoft to have a working OS eventually? more than 3 years! Even if Samsung comes out a working OS in 3 years, is it too late to the game?
Microsoft Valuation Suggests A Reality Check With A Warning [View article]
Well, I can't keep from sharing some my thought about salesforce.com. If you look at their numbers. Diluted EPS is negative now. There are more than 11% shorts ( based on my research many stocks drop more than 10-20 percent in a day with shorts more than 10%). It also does not make sense that investors pay more than $100 to a stock with revenue at only $18 with -0.24 earning . If you argue the growth is the reason to pay high premium to a company. I will say Microsoft’s potential growth from Mobile, new OS and Home Entertainment division is more promising. If we say Microsoft is an old man, you know what Salesforce is an older man in CRM area with limited growth potential.
Microsoft Valuation Suggests A Reality Check With A Warning [View article]
I think their Windows 8 is promising. The traffic (see data from Alexa) of the Microsoft phone's app marketplace went up quick and big, it means the adoption of theire mobile OS and devices are growing. The XBox is the top one game console already and start having positive earnings. The Office and Server division (especially SQL Server and Windows Server) will keep its financial stable at least. The Azure service is helping Microsoft into PaaS area. Don't forget if you feel SalesForce is good, Microsoft is eating their cake by Office 360 and MS CRM online.
If anyone who strongly support a stock, he should buy some for himself. I'm tired to read article strongly supporting a stock but not owned by the author.
Correct me if I'm wrong here. I understand NOK hired a lot of people in Finland. but is it still a very big employer there anymore by laying out more and more people? What if it is dying without help from Microsoft? From market value of the company, it worth only 11B now, Microsoft paid 9B to buy skype. Nokia may not as big as and as important as you think in the eyes of Finland gov and investors. Sell it may be a better solution than seeing its death. This is a global business, Nokia can still keep office and headcounts in Finland after aquired by Microsoft. Although NOK may move more R&D resource to US, it cut people from local non-MS-OS related R&D team anyway. It is building physical phone out of Finland anyway.
Other than what I wrote above, if Nokia fail Microsoft will fail together. Nokia's failure will mess up Microsoft's windows 8 strategy for long run. It will become a bigger issue to Microsoft. So like it or not, Microsoft will bail out Nokia if it is necessary (I believe Nokia will take off by itself). It could be a very good deal to Microsoft by considering the value of patent Nokia has in the mobile industry ( it will not less than Motorola's), the sales channels in China, the hardware design advantages ...
It is not about how much money it has on hand after dividend or after stock purchase, it is about rebuild the confidence. Many companies died because of the stupid sell from stock market without giving it enough time to turn around. For Nokia, it can't build confidence in short time from product, the only thing it can do now is to pay dividend and buy back stock. Nokia has done all it can do, it has promised money from Microsoft. It just need more time and beg investors not sell stock to make it too low.
Like playing poker, you need to think about the odd to win. After a good rally for months, I think a pullback is mandatory and the odd to a pullback is higher than breaking the previous high. We may argue the QEs added cash or inflation therefore the market should be higher than previous high (like the one before 2008 market crash), but I don't feel the market deserve a long rally like this without a correction.
7 Stocks With Accumulated Loss Expected to Gain [View article]
For SIRI, I agree. I think it is like LinkedIn, they both have good growth and exclusive advantage in their niche. Although their PE are both super high, they may keep moving up.
National Bank Greece's Management Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
Thank you for the comment. Buying it now is a risky trade but it may worth it. I had same concern regarding dilution to many stocks in the past like what you have to NBG. I had seen so many stocks that offered new shares (a lot of new shares) when being hit badly after year 2008 and had huge dilution. However what surprised me was after the stocks went down to hit the price of new shares, they rallied up and up without seeing back. I think that the cash and believe brought in by new investors will write off the damage of the dilution. It will be actually a positive sign if people want to invest into the company by buying new shares when it was in super ugly business situation (you know the more buyers the better). As long as those companies survive and be able to recover as the economic recover, people will keep buying, investors only look at future. So questions here are 1. whether they get enough investors to buy new shares, 2. will the country or Europe recover from here.
Thanks
Gary
National Bank Greece's Management Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
Some Thoughts On The Recent Surge In National Bank Of Greece [View article]
Why I Think Zynga Rallied Yesterday [View article]
Samsung Tizen: Announcing The Death Of Mobile For Microsoft And RIM? [View article]
Microsoft Valuation Suggests A Reality Check With A Warning [View article]
Microsoft Valuation Suggests A Reality Check With A Warning [View article]
Nokia: Bonds Holding Firm [View article]
The Hair Pulling Move By Nokia [View article]
The Hair Pulling Move By Nokia [View article]
The Hair Pulling Move By Nokia [View article]
Gary
Ghost Rally [View article]
Technology Services Group: Top Buy and Sell Ideas Based on Big Movers From Last Week [View article]
7 Stocks With Accumulated Loss Expected to Gain [View article]
7 Stocks With Accumulated Loss Expected to Gain [View article]