Farmer Bob

The Outlook for Corn

Liquidity was the problem, and that has been severely curtailed. Speculators have moved on, the commodity markets are not generating the returns the greedy specs need.
They will be back.
I agree the govenrment policies and money supply is the deep underlying root of the problems.
Oil is in the same situation, the big difference between oil and ag commodities is the yearly growing cycles,and the weather factor.

The drilling for oil in less profitable conditions will grind to a halt, that kind of oil exploration takes real venture capital, and of course the sources of venture capital have dried up too.

I think the worst is yet to come, policy, and regulation will help, but it is going to be a rocky road.

Looking forward with caution

The Outlook for Corn

I am a farmer and Crop Insurance agent, in the western corn belt. The USDA report,which most of you live and die for, could well be wrong. There is more corn in the bins than most years, The yields have yet to be compiled in the real world. As a Federal crop insurance agent, I can tell you, a lot of farmers are not divulging the amount of corn they have on hand until the last possible moment. Regional elevators (corn Buyers) and ethanol plants are struggling to get farmers to bring the grain in. Local ethanol plants are paying premiums over CBOT just to keep enough corn on hand to run the plants. Most of the corn in the on- farm storage has not been priced. Yes, there is still unharvested corn,and snow will prevent much of it from getting harvested before late spring.

It has been a tough year, logistically,weather wise,financially. The future looks even more uncertain. Credit is tight,inputs are high.

The plans on my farm include buying enough seed to swing corn or bean acres either way at the latest possible date. The winter wheat has been planted, with the snow cover,it should survive and do well.

This is not an easy business, and ,It is my belief that speculators pushed the commodity prices far outside the parameters of supply and demand, which has now caused entire industries into survival mode (ethanol,cattle producers)

Real people are losing jobs,careers,homes, over the irresponsible actions of huge speculators. Speculators should get a real job.

Monsanto and the fertilizer industry took the opportunity to set themselves up for huge profits also, but the farmers have balked at paying astronomical prices, and these markets are feeling that now.


If anything should be learned from 2008, the year of BIG swings, BIG is not always better. Speculators,banks,seed companies may have gotten too BIG, controlling the market only works for a while, then the bloodshed comes.

Good luck to all of you, you will need it, as wil I.