Gilbert A...

China Stirs a Pot of Gold

Is Gold rising or US dollar debasing ?

That's the question.

Gold: The Only Remaining Bubble?

Is Gold an hedge agains inflation ? I so, why gold is up then, since there is no inflation, we are even in a deflation phase.

In noway there is inflation right now !!!

Stop being contrarian stating there is some :

Trust officials from stats bureaus, Trust your officials they know best,

There is no inflation now, nor in sight.

Proof 1: oil is down, crude is down, but the pump remains the same.
And Opep will cut production.

Proof 2 : Tides still makes 34 washes, cost the same. But the bottle is
twice less than it was. Javel water, the jug is smaller, and it is
not because of my lens.

Proof 3: My pasta pack is 2 twice the lastyear price, and the pack is 25
% less.

Proof 4: meat price are declining; they will eliminate beast to keep the
price up. My 10 lb. potato bag cost the price of a 20 lb.

Proof 5: DO some grocery shopping and compare with last year price.

Proof 6 : 42 '' Plasma tv set are cheaper now. Iwho buys tv each week,
and like any other electronics, price are falling as new tech
comes in the market.

I do suggest that M. Paulson et al. know what they are talking about when
they make satement about their non-inflation. But I don't think we have the same concept.

I don't mind that Bentley's new model is cheaper than the last one.

So I Expect gold to hold and rise. And I hope it, because what else's left ?

12 Reasons to Short Gold

On Feb 11 06:11 PM Machiavelli999 wrote:

> I think people on this site need to learn the definition of inflation.
> Inflation is not simply too much money. Its too much money chasing
> too few goods. Even if there is too much money out there right now,
> its not chasing anything.

I must agree on the definition, but desagree on the evaluation.

When Treasury issues bonds and the sole buyer is your central bank. Mainstream media might say, it's no big deal; they were bought anyway.

The message sent and received is quite different when you are already an owner of public debt, and your only potential buyer is the debtor himself !!!!

What the public debt is worthing in such case ? It's at the good will of the debtor. Since he is the sole potential buyer.

No bond holders will want to be left with the bag. He will sell it quick, and he will receive money for it. Monney that will be dumpt promtly since a dollar bill, is still a debt initiated by the central bank realted to the Treasury.

Monney will have too chase something.

The only way to calm a public debtholder who wants to sell, is to give him a better yeld, or else......your economy collapse......You gonna get so much of greenback returning home, while they worth still someting.

Then you raise interest rate in order to stop the downfall of the currency.

The treasury had somewhat an easy ride to this point.

Because, tons of billions of debt at zero percent interest was easy to handle, but it would otherwise at 5, 6, 10, 12, 15 %.

With deficits, wars, service to the population, there is one thing that won't and must not be left asside; the interest over the debt.

Default on interest and the game is over.

It is not obvious, but saying that actually monney is not chasing anything.
I disagree; money is chasing money, and since the hunt is on, monney seeks shelter.

That's why i won't sell my call on GLD.

,

The Final Market Bubble

Tonyb as strong point,

And I do agree that a collapse overnight to zero for Us dollar is exagerate.

Even Iceland didn't go down to zero overnight. Doomsayers arguing for Zimbawe or Weimar republic are not serious. US is not a replica of those coountries.

But Us dollar will go down. It's like a choregraphy organized by central banks, they are going down all along. They all practice the same monetary policies.

That's why I am confident with gold to remain high and reach new summit.

I don't see the Canadian dollar to be the best haven to get away from a UsD collapse, since Canada send 80 % of its products in USA, it is hard to do good business when your main client is in big trouble.

Making Canada Our 51st State Could Make It Easier to Buy American

From Québec,

I prefer our national debt than US national debt.

Oreo cookies don't taste the same in US.

At least if that ever happens, we will be able to buy freely guns and ammos.....

Can they speak french in the congress ????? :))))))))))

Bye Bye Greenback

Hi, Fitzman.

Since I can remember about trade balances from US and Canada. Canada received always more. It is not due to Nafta or else.

But with such a large trade deficit with Canada from maybe 40 years, We canadians should a whole lot richier, our currency should roof top.

And it is not the case.

US has trade deficit with Canada, Yes. But they have mainly trade deficit with US company doing business in Canada.

When GM Oshawa, Ontario send a car to Detroit, Michigan. It is a trade deficit for the US. But it is still GM.

Same for Oil, Exxon is Imperial oil, afterall.

The majority of big companies in Canada are in fact american ones.

All these profits going back to american shareholders, then balance trade deficit could be seen in a different perspective.

10 Predictions for the Global Economy

To conclude, I will just quote the prophet.

''There are known knowns. There are things we know that we know. There are known unknowns. That is to say, there are things that we now know we don’t know. But there are also unknown unknowns. There are things we do not know we don’t know''

Greetings to you all !

Ecuador's Idiotic Default

Maybe, it's a game.

If they (Ecuador) doesn't pay and has the cash to do so. And Venezuela is the writter, that means Venezuela is liable.

Oil as the venezuela's main export at 45 $\ barrel should already be a problem for Chavez. And if, it has liablies over Ecuardor payment of bonds. Then, it is adding to a destabilization of venezuela.

Does it has something to do with russians fleet in the carabean ?

Analyzing the Crisis in Iceland: Can It Happen Here?

Hi, Fred.

They did built that aluminium facility and foreign workers, canadians mainly from Québec, are in place to learn icelandics.

But will Aluminium be enough? the markets are not quite going upward.

Could the US dollar, being in a Krona in a near future. Some even see default in next summer.

Ciao.



On Dec 07 10:47 AM Fred Banks wrote:

> Going into the Eurozone is not a solution for Iceland, nor for any
> civilized country. Sweden went into the Eurozone because the parasites
> in the Swedish government were hot to travel and rub elbows with
> the parasites in Brussels. As it happens, it is the worst decision
> made by a Swedish government in modern times.
>
> If Iceland want to solve their economic problems, all they need to
> do is to expand the aluminum processing facility that - I think -
> they have constructed, and maybe import a few hundred people to work
> in it.
>
> Professor Ferdinand E. Banks

Letting the Reinflation Genie Out of the Bottle

Hi, jlounsbury,


You brief it well and it is clear and correct.

There not much of a doubt in my mind, that there is going somekind of an inflation, a devaluation of the currency, it's mainly a matter of knowing When ?

The next point and more important is :

Do we want to be losers or winners ?

Since there so much of everyone money given away to banks by bailouts, there is no shame to increase what we owe to banks, now and pay them later.

Time is everything afterall.

No rush to pay faster your mortage or any of your loans.

Time to invest ? Calls on commodities, selling Puts. Oil, Gold, Silver.

Time to quit bonds ?

If it doesn't work, will you be worst than other ?

You don't probably realize that, by only reading these threads makes you weeks in advance on the mainstream medias. If you're not in finance, and even if you are, you talk about what is written here with collegues; the vast majority of people won't even understand half of your saying.

Financial illetracy is also a great plague.

You listen CNN, and a gorgeous girl tells you that even you 401K is down 33 % since three months, there no worry if you are young and don't retire from 20 years from now.

That is total BS. better sell at the beginnig, let it drop and buy it back
lower no matter your age, a lost is a lost.
Mainstream medias vows to inform you, but control you at the first
thing.

Freedom comes with knowledge.

Thank to MSM and proxies given by finance illetracy; Many portfolio managers who eat caviar two month ago will probabilly doing so two years from now, and they don't care about who is gonna get the balloney.

I just want to cover my ar... by myself, and actually i do it better than my pension plan management.

Good luck to you all

God bless

Gilbert.:





On Nov 26 12:14 PM jlounsbury59 wrote:

> User 55065 - - -
>
> Inflation has winners and losers. Some winners are:
> 1. Anyone with huge debt. The debt is repaid with dollars of lower
> value.
> 2. Anyone with hard assets: real estate, commodities, etc. However,
> some might argue that these, on average, simply stay even, protecting
> the holders from inflation.
>
> Some losers are:
> 1. Lenders and bond holders. They are receiving devalued dollars
> in repayment.
> 2. Anyone of fixed income, such as seniors and retirees. Social security
> is indexed for "inflation", but the official inflation number seriously
> underestimates the actual cost increases for seniors, such as health
> care and other services.
> 3. Wage earners. Wage increases tend to lag inflation.
> 4. Stock investors. Stocks have underperformed in periods of high
> inflation, especially on an inflation adjusted basis.
>
> On balance, high inflation has more losers than winners.
>
> A low level of inflation (1%, 2% or even 3%) is a condition that
> often accompanies an expanding economy and the balance between winners
> and losers shifts to more winners.
>
> I hope this over-simplified discussion of inflation pluses and minuses
> is useful.

Cramer's Stop Trading! Zombie Stocks (11/21/08)

Dear Cramer,

You don't think Citi will be allowed to close business. You are right, they won't be allowed to do so. But they will do it...

Because they are too big to fail, they are also to big to be saved.

AIG is a dwarf compare to Citi.

How much for that bailout please ?????


Gilbert.:

Deflation Now; Inflation's Coming

Bonjour Louis,

I don't know where gold will be in the next 6 month. 200 or 2000 $.

I expect it will be 2000. Even in that tricky game.

Because it is a tricky game. Did not some bankers and central bank done a job on gold in August ?

There is so much price difference between the''paper asset'' and the real McCoy....Mint stores are in back order mode.


What we mostly forget in the debate about gold over In-falation or de-flation and monetizing debts, is that serious political crisis beside economics are worsen too.

Pakistan is very unstable, the Iranian showdown is not over, Caucasus is on the middle of another confrontation with Russia, and piracy is endemic close to the Red sea, where so much of our oil comes from.

Joe Biden warn us about a crisis in the months to come to test Obama, an every high ranking officials around the globe agreed.

Oil producers in North America might be also a good investment.


Best luck to you all,

Gilbert

Number of U.S. Homes With Negative Equity Is Stunning

This situation could become very scary.

I think we will see more and more large scale fires like california. It was quite common in the Bronx in the seventies to set building in fire to collect insurances.

My grand parents told me about a house they bought in 1930 for about 250 $ for unpaid taxes, It was built in 1928....and costed 28 000 $.

Where are we going ?

Strong inflation could be only way to get out this mess. But anyway it goes it will be painfull.

Gilbert .:

Number of U.S. Homes With Negative Equity Is Stunning

This situation could become very scary.

I think we will see more and more large scale fires like california. It was quite common in the Bronx in the seventies to set building in fire to collect insurances.

My grand parents told me about a house they bought in 1930 for about 250 $ for unpaid taxes, It was built in 1928....and costed 28 000 $.

Where are we going ?

Strong inflation could be only way to get out this mess. But anyway it goes it will be painfull.

Gilbert .:

It's a Great Time to Be an Inflationista

Yes Bowman 711,

I agree that the Canadian curency went down to .63 cents, like it droppes to .78 in two weeks. Why ? mainly as an important resources exporting country, our dollars goes down if the demands in such importing sectors are down.

At 63 cents some years ago, oil was cheap, gold was 300 an ounce and so on. On the other hand; low canadian dollar meant it was easier to export manufacturing goods. Manufacturing sector is in recession since 2006..

Let's remind us when the conservatives runned by Mulroney, with Michael Wilson as finance minister, they spent billions and billions for the only goal to maintain the currency. The national debt was about 240 B. and ended at 650 B.

I am tired of those politicians talking about cuts, cuts, cuts, strict economics, and at the end of it, the case is simply but surely worse.

And, unfortunatly, it is cruely true for those conservatives politicians.

anyway, I fear right now with all those monney printed, we going to crush currencies, wich could erase some of the debt, but create a LOT of inflation. Maybe some major currencies could be history within months. The US dollar could one of them.

Good election night to you all.

Ciao

Gilbert .:



On Nov 04 12:34 PM bowman711 wrote:

> I would remind Gilbert of Terrebonne, Québec that it was durning
> the Canadian Liberal Party's tenure that the Canadian dollar dropped
> to a low of 62-cents when compared to the U.S. dollar. What the Liberals
> were saying, in essence, was that Canadian business couldn't compete
> with American business in productivity and effeciency so they had
> to bring the Canadian dollar down to make it SEEM Canda's products
> were cheaper.