realist2

Lithium-Ion Batteries for Hybrid Vehicles?

Chancer may wish to may wish to address the following obstacle I have heard about to gasoline use in vehicle engines:

The total world's known resources of oil in the first generation of automobile use was insufficient for wide spread use in making the numerous quantity of gasoline vehicles worldwide today and oil is nonrenewable with overall long term production declining. Most vehicle manufacturers will opt for energy carrier alternatives to gasoline that are cheaper and more plentiful, such as lithium and many, many other battery chemistries under development, biodiesel, non-food crop ethanol, lpg (propane), compressed natural gas, etc. etc. Electric drive is the end game. Deal with it.

Also, supply and demand interact and unlike oil, an energy source, lithium, an energy carrier, is not consumed forever when used. nor turned into unuasable pollution. Think through the interactions to realize that the end result is increased production and lower prices.

On Jul 12 04:39 PM Chancer wrote:

> With all due respect to the author, it is reasonable to consider
> that he may have a vested interest in promoting the use of Bolivia's
> lithium resources. I can imagine Bolivians in and out of govenment
> right now are collecting funds (or fees) from speculators (suckers)
> wanting to be first for Bolivia's new riches: lithium. In La Paz
> in 1980, the DEA head told me that the Bolivian national pastime
> was separating the gringo from his money.
>
> The author may wish to address the following obstacles I have heard
> about) to lithium use in vehicle batteries:
>
> 1- The total world's known resources of lithium are insufficient
> for wide spread use in making the numerous quantitiy of electric/hybrid
> vehicles worldwide. Most vehicle manufacturers will opt for alternatives
> to lithium that are cheaper and more plentiful.

Lithium-Ion Batteries for Hybrid Vehicles?

To be fair, I already do V2G with my electric vehicle during peak times, so my electric vehicle has REDUCED the risk the brownouts relative to the demand on the grid without electric vehicles.

Since I've purchased my highway capable electric motorcycle, my monthly electric usage has gone down, not up, as I now spend more time after work playing with my vehicle than I did at home blasting the air conditioner/heating, using the computer, plasma TV, etc., etc.

Tdot appears deeply uninformed about how plug ins are now playing out in the real world has done a wonderful job spreading FUD, old and misinformation and setting up straw men.

Try the 2007 NRCD/EPRI study that shows that the 2007 grid could handle an instant switch over to more than 75% electric vehicles. There are more recent studies with similar results. Do the basic research, please.


On Jul 12 03:07 PM Tdot wrote:
To be fair, the national grid is already strained to the limit on some days, particularly during summer afternoons and evenings, as home air conditioners are operating at "full blast", beating down the heat from the stove, home theater, computer, etc., never mind the heat from the sun and humidity. Add a few more kW to charge your car, along with thousands of your "neighbors", and an urban region like Detroit or Chicago could really "go brown" fast during a peak. It already happens now - brownouts and rolling blackouts - before plug-in electric cars. It can only get worse after, unless more Gigawatt-class power plants are built and networked-in at the same time.

Lithium-Ion Batteries for Hybrid Vehicles?

Considering all the lithium powered pedal assist bicycles and full electric bicycles, scooters and motorycles in China all over the place, and often the dominant form of non-walking transportation, the MIIT rule is completely meaningless. Perhaps they could get out the labs once in a while and smell reality. The future looks a lot like the recent past because it is the recent past, as news always lags behind reality.

Lithium-Ion Batteries for Hybrid Vehicles?

I use a $10 timer so that mine automatically charges off peak in the middle of the night while I sleep (try that with a gasser). You obviously don't own or use an electric vehiucle.

On Jul 12 12:00 PM Longinvestor wrote:

> Get ready for the 6 p.m. brownout as everybody gets home and plugs
> in their PHEV.

Obama Proposes Higher Fuel Standards

Thanks for agreeing that electric vehicles are pretty good, then, especially in my case. Plus mine offers superior off the line torque and acceleration.

I'm absolutely not an expert in US energy, nor in projecting future trends, but some small, light thoughts:

1. Slightly faster current growth rate in solar/wind generation than in current electric vehicle adoption rate means it's very viable (US DOE EIA, EPA), although there's no reason to completely exclude hydroelectric, biomass, geothermal and other renewable energy sources or other non-oil energy sources such natural gas or coal in the mix, for that matter. Electric vehicles can use any and or all of those or whatever other energy sources come along in whatever mix personal preference or society or economics or envrionmental limits allow.

2. They'll use the amount determined by the intersection of supply and demand at any time, I suspect. Right now there's more supply than demand, so demand will likely continue to chase increasing supply for some time. Carbon trading and other market mechanisms, such as subscriptions, (now and forthcoming) mean that consumers can sign up for whatever energy source/pricing they want/can get, regardless of the overall mix that's out there now. Supply will then change over time, through free market economics, to match any changes to demand based on that trading.

3. USGS, MMS and FERC reports suggest zero land area required at present due to massive offshore wind opportunities, near where most people in the US live (within 100 miles of Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, Great (and other) Lakes). Nontheless, additional onland wind farms, constructed by consumer and industry preference and demand, do not "use up" land and are are fully compatible with cattle grazing, crop and marginal non-crop (for biofuel), watershed and ecosystem functions, nature and hunting preserves, recreation areas and a host of other simultaneous economic land uses (and non-uses) in less densely populated areas.

Anyway, check out EPRI, NRCD, US DOE EIA, IEA, AWEA, NABCEP, DOC MMS and FERC, EPA and even EDTA (the latter, considering that they are an advocacy group, are realists in that they acknowledge that US electric generation is currently dominated by domestic coal, natural gas, and renewable hydro electric, in that order) etc. for detailed data and studies, expertise and far better information on general US energy generation and conjectured trends than I can offer.

I will respond to no more general questions outside my area of personal knowledge, but may continue to refute future false general claims.

On May 21 10:22 PM SteadfastMason wrote:

>That is pretty good, then. How viable is solar/wind generation as >the primary energy source for electricity to recharge cars across >the USA? How much land area (for solar) or how many windmills >are required to supply and distribute that amount of electricity?

Obama Proposes Higher Fuel Standards

@ SteadfastMason

Not in my case.

My electric vehicle, my daily driver commuter, is 100% wind powered from a commercial, nearby wind farm, thanks to a subscription plan from my regional power company, at prices less than coal in most states, at both my residence and work place. Ok, I do my V2G with grid tied residential and small commercial solar systems, and I've charged at them a few times too, so maybe 99% wind, 1% solar.

Thus, all my fuel dollars stay in the domestic economy instead of going overseas to fund volatile parts of the world, as yours do when you drive a full gasser.

Li-ion Batteries: A Speculative Field of Dreams

My lithium power pack performs better in my electric vehicle than advertised in all weather conditions, year round. Rather that suggesting artificial restrictions to real world performance results, why don't you just look at the real world performance already available over the last decade for those products where lithium use is ubiquitous? After all, folks have been hauling their cell phones and laptops around in the rain and snow, dropping them, driving their radio controlled electric vehicles through puddles, etc., etc. for years. If you really want to understand the performance and life cycle of the current generation of li-on in an electric vehicle, I strongly urge you to buy one and use it (or have a younger relative do it for you), as I do. Nothing, certainly not asssumption riddled predictions and ridiculous restrictions on what counts as product or enough results, substitutes for real world, personal experience.

The product already works - that's not in question. The only question is how fast the adoption and broad market penetration will occur and when/how substitution to other energy carriers and changing carrier mixes will occur. Keep in mind that autos took over 100 years for first tier market saturation and that we still have about 9 million horses in the US. 3% total market adoption for plug in electric vehicles (including hybrids) within the first ten years with a classic growth curve seems reasonable to me, with or without the government, probably with mostly lithium and with other energy carriers. Lithuim is not perfect and will not be the best choice forever, but for now it certainly is good enough for the widespread, increasing use that it enjoys.

If you think that 3% is not enough to count as a reasonable fleet, than by your argument, there are no hybrid cars on the road at all, which is a ridiculous conclusion.

Li-ion Batteries: A Speculative Field of Dreams

@ Mayascribe

I didn't mention brand name, because 1) there are many commercial electric motorcycles (and cars) currently in the market and I don't intend to play favorites, although I know which one I like the best for now (the one I own) and 2) I want people to do their own basic reserach and find our for themselves that there are quite a few choices, already on the markets and on the roads. You can easily ifgure out which one I own from the specification hints I've given and by doing a few seconds of on-line research.

@ Paul

Please see above. Despite your claims, there are in fact already many commercially produced electric vehicles on the road, many using lithium, and more every day. Please get up to speed with reality before you make sweeping pronouncements. Electric drive is obviously the end game, with unusually rapid adoption rates already occuring - the consumer doesn't and won't care what the fuel sources (such as LNG) for electricity (100% wind power in my case, thanks to a subscription plan through my regional power utility company) any range extender or energy carriers (such a lithium on high energy density or lead on low cost) are, so long as it works with electric drive.

Li-ion Batteries: A Speculative Field of Dreams

@ DHH

I never said we should or should not have gov't test lithium. I'm merely repeatedly pointing out that consumers and businesses have already been testing it in real world applications for decades. If gov't and investors want to jump on our bandwagon well after the fact, that's their option. John Petersen seems to say that we should slow down, test everything heavily, and worry about lithium supply before adopting lithium batteries. I'm saying, sorry, it's too late. We already adopted them, have been using them for decades and will keep stuffing 'em in our vehicles too if we want to.

You can give my post a thumbs down if you want, but you can't change reality and history or stuff the lithium battery genie back in the bottle.

Li-ion Batteries: A Speculative Field of Dreams

@ John Adam

Just seeing whether anyone would have a cogent, balanced response, such as "Unlike lead paint, lead batteries are more contained and have over a century of responsible, ubiquitous use in automobiles, with limited numbers of birth defects and child poisoning from car batteries." Just showing you how its done.

@ Bones

Your gas guzzler also has a battery - really, go look under the hood, or see if the engine turns over when you turn your old fashioned ignition key. So watch out for those UFOs in your gas guzzler - you are just as vulnerable.

Li-ion Batteries: A Speculative Field of Dreams

Since you all are all hepped up on hawking lead, why don't you get it into the market (and into watersheds) the old fashioned way - putting it in paint and spreading that onto baby toys and nursery walls?

Li-ion Batteries: A Speculative Field of Dreams

@ John Adam

Automakers have my permission to follow your advice, if they want to, for what that counts (nothing). Anything for them to make long term profits, win back domestic market share, increase sales and win the hearts and minds of consumers, which apparently decades of selling full size SUVs with huge towing capacity while CAFE standard were stagnant did not, and selling too many oversize, poor handling pickups to declining construction and manufacturing sectors also did not.

Li-ion Batteries: A Speculative Field of Dreams

@ nottosmart

No, no one who has done basic research.

Mine is non-toxic, can be eaten, is landfill approved, can be used for low capacity storage by power utilities for many years, as a doorstop, etc. In my case, I already made arrangements to sell mine at a huge profit when I am ready to upgrade, in seconds, to a higher performance one many years from now.

Li-ion Batteries: A Speculative Field of Dreams

The Tesla power pack uses assembly technology from 2003 and earlier while the lithium batteries it contains are similar to millions of millions of those in lithium powered laptops, cell phones, forklifts, low speed and low performance electric vehicles, buses, high performance motorcycles, radio controlled cars, airplanes and boats that have been used in everyday, outside conditions throughout this decade with good results for lithium performance and life, barring those that are poorly assembled and the obsolete older, more volatile chemistries. The real challenges are in overall production costs of vehicles, of which the power pack is only a part. So we really need to hear from industrial scaling specialists interacting with the cell manufacturers and raw material suppliers. Let's be frank - a good, professional commercial buyer and supply chain manager is worth his/her weight in gold. Just ask VW.

Li-ion Batteries: A Speculative Field of Dreams

@ John Petersen

As Battman pointed out so eloquently, if consumers only considered fuel price, they would just all walk everywhere. I suggest that you redo your calculations with a more sophisticated and realistic representation of consumer demand and behavior, as lithium is not just substituting a fuel type (which would be a more appropriate analysis for say, another liquid fuel like ethanol, such as putting 10% in retail gas (what, we already do that?)). Once again, traditional oil and natural gas analyses are completely inadequate to this task. Electric drive performance is fundamentally superior to gasser performance, regardless of the energy carrier used, and consumers increasingly recognize this, as well as value its social benefits to them presonally (less air and water pollution, less expensive oil wars, ...). I'm not the only one. There is currently an 80% mismatch between automobile supply and consumer demand, as documented by private rental agencies.

Let's hear what the marketing and consumer demand gurus have to say on this...

We also already determined that your calculations are an upper bound and that gasoline prices are volatile. It it was 4 before, it'll be 4 again when the global recession ends, so yes, viable immediately for strategic postioning.