DVW

From the Sept. issue of Marc Faber's The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report: "The future will be a total disaster, with a collapse of our capitalistic system as we know it today, wars, massive government debt defaults and the impoverishment of large segments of Western society."

You'll get your pony, but you'll have to EAT him.

Derivatives: Financial Armageddon, Round Two?

I think it's easy to prove that derivatives can be bad. All derivatives can be bad with over used leverage. (Ok, so maybe it's the leverage that is bad, but derivatives ARE leveraged instruments)

How so? Uncovered calls/puts , or too many futures contracts vs margin balance as examples of simple derivatives that can go bad. Either can cause you to owe lots of money you dont have and both are simple to price and have tangible value, unlike these mortgage securities that are still unpriced.

Ok, so maybe the real issue is mispricing of risk... anything can be dangerous in that regard. The question is, who is currently mispricing risk on their derivative positions and at what level?

Feeding the Ducks on Wall Street (HuffPo)

I agree. But, the market will keep going up until it has a reason to go down. Sounds simple, but that's the catch. If nothing explodes, implodes or gets measurably worse, it will keep going up.

I sure dont want to be holding the bag when the music stops.

Four Major Developments Gold Investors Should Watch

Almost NOBODY thinks it's possible that gold can go down in value.

Hmmmmmm.

Almost nobody thought tech stocks could go down.
Almost nobody thought Oil would fall like a stone.
Almost nobody thought houses could depreciate wildly.
and
Who would have thought that tulip bulbs were worthless?

I'm just saying... good luck if you own it and be careful.
I'll be waiting to short it... eventually.

Four Major Developments Gold Investors Should Watch

It is a mania! That much I agree with.

I can turn on the radio and hear several different commercials trying to sell the public gold, and I see guys out on the street corner to holding up "buy gold" signs. Any gold post on this site attracts tons of bullish comments. It's a certain mania and they make dangerous investments.

Interesting-- the China story. They cant buy enough of our treasuries at rotten rates of return. Why cant China get enough low rent dollars despite bad mouthing the buck in public to run it down further? Hummm. Obviously they're expecting a RISE in the dollar and they want in cheaper, otherwise they're screwed.

If they thought they might get screwed on the dollar, wouldnt the government be hoarding gold instead of passing it out to the citizens?

It doesnt add up.

Unless some country decides to go back on the gold standard, gold really has no practical value except for jewelry or a trading vehicle.

Be careful with gold!

The City of Dallas accounts for another 400 iPhone (AAPL) sales, sending the phones to CEOs in high-cost-of-living areas to try to draw their firms to the Texas metroplex.

Good luck to DFW. I lived there for a long time. Nice business environment, but the place is hot, flat, crowded and generally uninteresting. It would take more than a free i-phone for me to move back.

Look Who's Betting on Inflation

I guess I'm looking at the wrong stuff. Everywhere I look, people are expecting inflation, and even hyper inflation. I dont think the deflation is done because banks are done imploding! In other words, I think you're still early.

Why the Bulls Are Skating on Thin Ice

Don't forget that in the tech boom years, stocks of worthless companies flew thru the roof. Why not now? To expect the market to be rational and properly valued is, in my opinion, an error. The market does what it does, prices are bid up or down beyond the real valuations all the time. Afterall, that's how you make money trading.

If the logic bothers you, then stay out. If you have a strong stomach buy the rally and keep your finger on the trigger, or wait for a true shortable moment validated by price, not assumptions. Shorting this market on the way up based on valuation has obviously been the wrong thing to do so far.

Tons of liquidity are being tossed into the world economy. Some is going to stocks so it's only natural that they'd rise. That's ALL that's happening now. No smoke, no mirrors, money always finds a home. When the liquidity stops, or is destroyed, the markets will fall.

Central banks are afraid to raise rates right now because they know it would crash the markets. They're right. It's a game of chicken. Let's see who blinks first.

Craving Chocolate

It's actually at the top of the trend line. I wouldnt do a thing with CCZ9 till it shows what it's going to do at that trend line. It's been bouncing consistently in a channel for months. It's been an easy play so far.

Kids go back to school tomorrow, as parents breathe a collective sigh of relief. Here's what President Obama plans to tell them.

If you're worried about the kids, then do something worthwhile like lobby to have no child left behind reversed! That law has done immense damage to our kids, so why no protest on that? Spend your time changing things that actually matter.

I have enough control in the education of my children that no politician's errant remarks are going to damage them.

Mike Rozeff's 11 points are baseless. He doesnt back up any of his points with logic. It's just personal opinion and rambling.

Yes, what is the fuss? Other presidents have addressed the kids, so have governors, senators, mayors and countless politicians at the local level. Our kids idolize sports figures that have absolutely no redeeming value. So?

I am no fan of Obama but I really dont feel threatened at all for him to tell my kids to stay in school. I dont drink the Kool-aid but choose to think for myself and develop my own opinions, not regurgitate others designed for me.

This grass roots objection is just more partisan tomfoolery designed to distract us from the two party system raping our country, which has been going on since Roosevelt. Just as with the contrived stock market rally, you're being played my friend.

Kids go back to school tomorrow, as parents breathe a collective sigh of relief. Here's what President Obama plans to tell them.

Looks ok to me. I dont understand the fuss.

Better than "just say NO" and "a thousand points of light".

ProShares' New Short Treasury ETF Arrives Right on Time

"This ETF is meant to track the index at -100% for no longer than a single day."

Ok, but all those reasons you give are LONG TERM trends. Just look at the UNG if you need proof that these derivative ETFs over the long term just plain suck. Personally, I think it's better to trade the ZN futures or short TLT directly.

A Sucker's Rally for the Dollar

Not sure who the suckers are in this trade yet but I wouldnt bet with the masses. Right now, one good scare and everyone is going to run from risk and smack dab into dollars. With all the USD shorts, it could be one hell of a pop. I'd wait for that before I went short dollars. But, that's just me, I'm typically a contrarian.

Yeah, yeah, I know the buck isnt worth anything, but neither are bank stocks and you've seen how they've run.

A Sucker's Rally for the Dollar

Yep, 97% of dollar traders agree with you. That is the dollar only sees 3% bullish opinions right now. Who is left to short it further?

You're probably right in the long term, but in the near term, I wouldn't short Uncle Buck. Shorting everything BUT the dollar seems statistically better here.

Equities Not a Bargain

If you learn to trade along with the trend up OR down, then you wont care if it's really selling for what it's worth or even worthless. None of the internet stocks were worth anything in late 1990's, but that didnt stop them from going up much higher than anyone thought before they went to zero! Trading is the ONLY way to make money in this environment and will be for some time. Buy and hold and fundamental analysis is far too risky to bet your future on.