DVW's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/291680/comments http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/33140?source=feed#comment-690688 690688 Fri, 25 Sep 2009 10:14:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/162856-derivatives-financial-armageddon-round-two?source=feed#comment-687849 687849
How so? Uncovered calls/puts , or too many futures contracts vs margin balance as examples of simple derivatives that can go bad. Either can cause you to owe lots of money you dont have and both are simple to price and have tangible value, unlike these mortgage securities that are still unpriced.

Ok, so maybe the real issue is mispricing of risk... anything can be dangerous in that regard. The question is, who is currently mispricing risk on their derivative positions and at what level?]]> Wed, 23 Sep 2009 13:20:09 -0400
How so? Uncovered calls/puts , or too many futures contracts vs margin balance as examples of simple derivatives that can go bad. Either can cause you to owe lots of money you dont have and both are simple to price and have tangible value, unlike these mortgage securities that are still unpriced.

Ok, so maybe the real issue is mispricing of risk... anything can be dangerous in that regard. The question is, who is currently mispricing risk on their derivative positions and at what level?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161909-feeding-the-ducks-on-wall-street-huffpo?source=feed#comment-680750 680750
I sure dont want to be holding the bag when the music stops.]]> Thu, 17 Sep 2009 11:38:29 -0400
I sure dont want to be holding the bag when the music stops.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161487-four-major-developments-gold-investors-should-watch?source=feed#comment-678060 678060
Hmmmmmm.

Almost nobody thought tech stocks could go down.
Almost nobody thought Oil would fall like a stone.
Almost nobody thought houses could depreciate wildly.
and
Who would have thought that tulip bulbs were worthless?

I'm just saying... good luck if you own it and be careful.
I'll be waiting to short it... eventually.]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 15:53:15 -0400
Hmmmmmm.

Almost nobody thought tech stocks could go down.
Almost nobody thought Oil would fall like a stone.
Almost nobody thought houses could depreciate wildly.
and
Who would have thought that tulip bulbs were worthless?

I'm just saying... good luck if you own it and be careful.
I'll be waiting to short it... eventually.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/161487-four-major-developments-gold-investors-should-watch?source=feed#comment-677400 677400
I can turn on the radio and hear several different commercials trying to sell the public gold, and I see guys out on the street corner to holding up "buy gold" signs. Any gold post on this site attracts tons of bullish comments. It's a certain mania and they make dangerous investments.

Interesting-- the China story. They cant buy enough of our treasuries at rotten rates of return. Why cant China get enough low rent dollars despite bad mouthing the buck in public to run it down further? Hummm. Obviously they're expecting a RISE in the dollar and they want in cheaper, otherwise they're screwed.

If they thought they might get screwed on the dollar, wouldnt the government be hoarding gold instead of passing it out to the citizens?

It doesnt add up.

Unless some country decides to go back on the gold standard, gold really has no practical value except for jewelry or a trading vehicle.

Be careful with gold!]]> Tue, 15 Sep 2009 11:01:02 -0400
I can turn on the radio and hear several different commercials trying to sell the public gold, and I see guys out on the street corner to holding up "buy gold" signs. Any gold post on this site attracts tons of bullish comments. It's a certain mania and they make dangerous investments.

Interesting-- the China story. They cant buy enough of our treasuries at rotten rates of return. Why cant China get enough low rent dollars despite bad mouthing the buck in public to run it down further? Hummm. Obviously they're expecting a RISE in the dollar and they want in cheaper, otherwise they're screwed.

If they thought they might get screwed on the dollar, wouldnt the government be hoarding gold instead of passing it out to the citizens?

It doesnt add up.

Unless some country decides to go back on the gold standard, gold really has no practical value except for jewelry or a trading vehicle.

Be careful with gold!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/32465?source=feed#comment-676677 676677 Mon, 14 Sep 2009 18:58:11 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/161241-look-who-s-betting-on-inflation?source=feed#comment-675111 675111 Sun, 13 Sep 2009 19:15:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/160914-why-the-bulls-are-skating-on-thin-ice?source=feed#comment-671773 671773
If the logic bothers you, then stay out. If you have a strong stomach buy the rally and keep your finger on the trigger, or wait for a true shortable moment validated by price, not assumptions. Shorting this market on the way up based on valuation has obviously been the wrong thing to do so far.

Tons of liquidity are being tossed into the world economy. Some is going to stocks so it's only natural that they'd rise. That's ALL that's happening now. No smoke, no mirrors, money always finds a home. When the liquidity stops, or is destroyed, the markets will fall.

Central banks are afraid to raise rates right now because they know it would crash the markets. They're right. It's a game of chicken. Let's see who blinks first.]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 09:00:37 -0400
If the logic bothers you, then stay out. If you have a strong stomach buy the rally and keep your finger on the trigger, or wait for a true shortable moment validated by price, not assumptions. Shorting this market on the way up based on valuation has obviously been the wrong thing to do so far.

Tons of liquidity are being tossed into the world economy. Some is going to stocks so it's only natural that they'd rise. That's ALL that's happening now. No smoke, no mirrors, money always finds a home. When the liquidity stops, or is destroyed, the markets will fall.

Central banks are afraid to raise rates right now because they know it would crash the markets. They're right. It's a game of chicken. Let's see who blinks first.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160872-craving-chocolate?source=feed#comment-671249 671249 Thu, 10 Sep 2009 20:23:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/32022?source=feed#comment-665623 665623
I have enough control in the education of my children that no politician's errant remarks are going to damage them.

Mike Rozeff's 11 points are baseless. He doesnt back up any of his points with logic. It's just personal opinion and rambling.

Yes, what is the fuss? Other presidents have addressed the kids, so have governors, senators, mayors and countless politicians at the local level. Our kids idolize sports figures that have absolutely no redeeming value. So?

I am no fan of Obama but I really dont feel threatened at all for him to tell my kids to stay in school. I dont drink the Kool-aid but choose to think for myself and develop my own opinions, not regurgitate others designed for me.

This grass roots objection is just more partisan tomfoolery designed to distract us from the two party system raping our country, which has been going on since Roosevelt. Just as with the contrived stock market rally, you're being played my friend.]]> Mon, 07 Sep 2009 20:36:40 -0400
I have enough control in the education of my children that no politician's errant remarks are going to damage them.

Mike Rozeff's 11 points are baseless. He doesnt back up any of his points with logic. It's just personal opinion and rambling.

Yes, what is the fuss? Other presidents have addressed the kids, so have governors, senators, mayors and countless politicians at the local level. Our kids idolize sports figures that have absolutely no redeeming value. So?

I am no fan of Obama but I really dont feel threatened at all for him to tell my kids to stay in school. I dont drink the Kool-aid but choose to think for myself and develop my own opinions, not regurgitate others designed for me.

This grass roots objection is just more partisan tomfoolery designed to distract us from the two party system raping our country, which has been going on since Roosevelt. Just as with the contrived stock market rally, you're being played my friend.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/32022?source=feed#comment-665517 665517
Better than "just say NO" and "a thousand points of light".]]> Mon, 07 Sep 2009 17:55:18 -0400
Better than "just say NO" and "a thousand points of light".]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157499-proshares-new-short-treasury-etf-arrives-right-on-time?source=feed#comment-639727 639727
Ok, but all those reasons you give are LONG TERM trends. Just look at the UNG if you need proof that these derivative ETFs over the long term just plain suck. Personally, I think it's better to trade the ZN futures or short TLT directly.]]> Fri, 21 Aug 2009 10:56:50 -0400
Ok, but all those reasons you give are LONG TERM trends. Just look at the UNG if you need proof that these derivative ETFs over the long term just plain suck. Personally, I think it's better to trade the ZN futures or short TLT directly.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155819-a-sucker-s-rally-for-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-629683 629683
Yeah, yeah, I know the buck isnt worth anything, but neither are bank stocks and you've seen how they've run. ]]> Fri, 14 Aug 2009 09:48:13 -0400
Yeah, yeah, I know the buck isnt worth anything, but neither are bank stocks and you've seen how they've run. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/155819-a-sucker-s-rally-for-the-dollar?source=feed#comment-627897 627897
You're probably right in the long term, but in the near term, I wouldn't short Uncle Buck. Shorting everything BUT the dollar seems statistically better here.]]> Thu, 13 Aug 2009 08:47:28 -0400
You're probably right in the long term, but in the near term, I wouldn't short Uncle Buck. Shorting everything BUT the dollar seems statistically better here.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/151281-equities-not-a-bargain?source=feed#comment-602942 602942 Sun, 26 Jul 2009 19:27:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/139832-dow-6500-in-6-months-or-less?source=feed#comment-519337 519337 Wed, 27 May 2009 09:15:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/139747-downward-correction-could-be-in-store-for-the-markets?source=feed#comment-519330 519330 Wed, 27 May 2009 09:11:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/24234?source=feed#comment-503792 503792 Thu, 14 May 2009 12:17:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/136519-coppock-curve-is-about-to-give-a-bullish-signal?source=feed#comment-495913 495913
For every chart or technical indicator that shows bull market, I can find one or more that say bear. All technical indicators are based on historical data. If any of them actually did predict the future reliably, we'd all be fabuously rich.]]> Fri, 08 May 2009 14:54:31 -0400
For every chart or technical indicator that shows bull market, I can find one or more that say bear. All technical indicators are based on historical data. If any of them actually did predict the future reliably, we'd all be fabuously rich.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/116732-touchdown-when-do-financial-stocks-hit-zero?source=feed#comment-367982 367982 Tue, 27 Jan 2009 16:07:54 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/115255-the-bull-run-begins-this-week?source=feed#comment-361112 361112 Tue, 20 Jan 2009 14:38:53 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113044-transitioning-from-bonds-to-gold?source=feed#comment-345592 345592 Sun, 04 Jan 2009 14:00:32 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/113044-transitioning-from-bonds-to-gold?source=feed#comment-345254 345254 Sun, 04 Jan 2009 09:46:36 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/14377?source=feed#comment-343214 343214 Thu, 01 Jan 2009 08:50:43 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112200-why-does-cramer-have-a-beef-with-leveraged-etfs?source=feed#comment-337346 337346 Wed, 24 Dec 2008 07:48:59 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/112105-t-bills-bubble-bubble-toil-and-trouble?source=feed#comment-337002 337002 Tue, 23 Dec 2008 16:38:53 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111617-the-forces-of-deflation-are-stronger-than-people-realize?source=feed#comment-333898 333898
As a side note, perhaps it's an elaborate scam by our dear Unkle to get mortgage rates down by implying that they will be a buyer of bonds which tricks market participants into bubbling up the prices so they dont have to stick it on their balance sheet. Of course that would mean they have forethought.

Have they actually bought any T-bills yet? Can they buy the T-bills that Asia refuses to buy? ]]> Fri, 19 Dec 2008 10:39:28 -0500
As a side note, perhaps it's an elaborate scam by our dear Unkle to get mortgage rates down by implying that they will be a buyer of bonds which tricks market participants into bubbling up the prices so they dont have to stick it on their balance sheet. Of course that would mean they have forethought.

Have they actually bought any T-bills yet? Can they buy the T-bills that Asia refuses to buy? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111336-u-s-records-huge-current-account-deficit?source=feed#comment-332915 332915 Thu, 18 Dec 2008 09:11:51 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111398-u-s-dollar-the-trade-of-the-decade?source=feed#comment-332853 332853
The reason the dollar has declined for the past 20 years is our debt load has been increasing during that time. How's the debt load been in the past few months?

Having to pay back all our national debts with deflated dollars is toxic and will be avoided at all costs regardless of what talking government heads say about a strong dollar policy.]]> Thu, 18 Dec 2008 08:33:11 -0500
The reason the dollar has declined for the past 20 years is our debt load has been increasing during that time. How's the debt load been in the past few months?

Having to pay back all our national debts with deflated dollars is toxic and will be avoided at all costs regardless of what talking government heads say about a strong dollar policy.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108544-highest-yielding-stocks-going-ex-dividend-in-december?source=feed#comment-319209 319209 Tue, 02 Dec 2008 16:33:55 -0500