Probably the stock market will be a better place than having your money in dollars, that much I can believe. In dollar terms it's likely to go up during inflation... but real wealth is going down unless you can find a place to put your money where it wont erode. That's getting more and more difficult. Commodities possibly the best choice... gold, maybe but maybe not. Dollars, bonds and stocks... not likely.
Coppock Curve Is About to Give a Bullish Signal [View article]
How about that previous signal. It was false! Who is to say that this wiggle isnt false as well?
For every chart or technical indicator that shows bull market, I can find one or more that say bear. All technical indicators are based on historical data. If any of them actually did predict the future reliably, we'd all be fabuously rich.
U.S. Dollar: The Trade of the Decade [View article]
The government is going to inflate their way out of this mess or die trying. Take that to the Central Bank. The only situation that I can see that causes a strong dollar is if it turns out all the other G7 nations are in far worse condition.
The reason the dollar has declined for the past 20 years is our debt load has been increasing during that time. How's the debt load been in the past few months?
Having to pay back all our national debts with deflated dollars is toxic and will be avoided at all costs regardless of what talking government heads say about a strong dollar policy.
The Deflation Debate: Why This Time Is Different [View article]
The problem with using China's population is MOST people there dont have any money. More now than there used to be, yes, but you can't say that the entire population is strong hands.
They do hold an awful lot of dollars that they need to get rid of. Expect them to come shopping here like the Japanese did a few decades back.
However, I do agree that the next seed of economic power might sprout in Asia. Give it a few to 10 years.
What We Don't Know about the Markets [View article]
"I just can't see stocks returning more than bond yields for the foreseeable future." -- really? Warren would disagree with you, or rather, he has disagreed. Take a look at why Mr Buffet is buying select stocks. It's not that he expects stocks to go on a tear from here, but that compared to bonds, they will outperform. In an inflationary environment stocks outperform.
Maybe you're right, but what we DO know is the government is printing money. That money most likely will cause inflation once the velocity of money picks up. The FED interest rate is nominally negative now. How exactly is that a bond friendly environment?
Personally I think bonds are the worst investment class going forward (3-5 years). Cash is next worst.
Coming Inflation To Boost Stocks, Gold [View article]
One thing I dont understand. If all the currencies of the world are being printed at the same rate as the dollar, then who is going to bid up the price of everything? I believe we are facing inflation, but to have inflation your currency needs to lose value against other currencies. In your article, you say that's going to be a small part of the devaluation. I think that's going to be the MAJOR part of the devaluation. The question is what currency will be strong. China perhaps. Time will tell.
Dow 6500 in 6 Months or Less? [View article]
Coppock Curve Is About to Give a Bullish Signal [View article]
For every chart or technical indicator that shows bull market, I can find one or more that say bear. All technical indicators are based on historical data. If any of them actually did predict the future reliably, we'd all be fabuously rich.
U.S. Records Huge Current Account Deficit [View article]
U.S. Dollar: The Trade of the Decade [View article]
The reason the dollar has declined for the past 20 years is our debt load has been increasing during that time. How's the debt load been in the past few months?
Having to pay back all our national debts with deflated dollars is toxic and will be avoided at all costs regardless of what talking government heads say about a strong dollar policy.
Last Thursday Was the Bottom - It's Time to Get Back in [View article]
Geesh, what's that saying about bottom pickers having smelly fingers?
The Deflation Debate: Why This Time Is Different [View article]
They do hold an awful lot of dollars that they need to get rid of. Expect them to come shopping here like the Japanese did a few decades back.
However, I do agree that the next seed of economic power might sprout in Asia. Give it a few to 10 years.
What We Don't Know about the Markets [View article]
Maybe you're right, but what we DO know is the government is printing money. That money most likely will cause inflation once the velocity of money picks up. The FED interest rate is nominally negative now. How exactly is that a bond friendly environment?
Personally I think bonds are the worst investment class going forward (3-5 years). Cash is next worst.
Time will tell. Good luck!
Coming Inflation To Boost Stocks, Gold [View article]