Tschurin

Tschurin
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  • More on Tiffany's Q2 report: Comparable store sales rose 22% for the quarter. Segment sales: Americas $438M (+25% Y/Y), Asia-Pacific $173M (+55% Y/Y), Japan $143M (+21% Y/Y), Europe $101M (+32% Y/Y). Sees high-teens gain in worldwide net FY11 sales due to improving strength in the Americas, Asia-Pacific and Japan.  (PR)   [View news story]
    The question is, of course, what would the same-store sales be after adjusting for the rise in the price of gold and silver?
    Aug 26, 2011. 07:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wells Capital's Jim Paulsen would not exactly welcome QE3: "We have created a very bad precedent… The financial markets whine and policy officials jump. The Fed has become the Pavlov’s dog of the stock market, and this is a horrible precedent for policy makers."   [View news story]
    All this attention to what Bernanke will or won't say tomorrow is making me nauseous. The idolatry reminds me of all the attention that used to be paid to Greenspan [remember CNBC focussing on how thick his attache case was as he arrived for each FOMC meeting]. The real question is, with everyone telling Bernanke how important and smart he is, what moronic mistake will he make that will impact us all. I think we already partly know the answer.
    Aug 25, 2011. 05:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Guess (GES): Q2 revenues were better than expected on strong sales internationally, but down 9.1% Y/Y, largely due to a settlement charge. The company lowers H2 and current quarter guidance below analysts' estimates due to a weakening global outlook. Shares -4.5% AH.   [View news story]
    Dear Ed:
    "Q2 revenues were better than expected on strong sales internationally, but down 9.1% Y/Y" implies that revenue was down. It was net earnings that were down, due to the settlement charge; revenue was up.
    Aug 24, 2011. 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Moody's cuts Japan's credit rating to Aa3 from Aa2, citing "large budget deficits and the build-up in Japanese government debt since the 2009 global recession."   [View news story]
    The SEC should get right on it and investigate Moody's for having the audacity to actually downgrade a country that had persistent deficits and a large build-up of government debt. First the United States, then Japan...pretty soon a ratings agency will be speaking the truth about any country.
    Aug 23, 2011. 09:31 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: The smell of QE3 must be in the air, as stocks were unshaken by everything from an East Coast earthquake to more weak economic data (I, II) to BofA's continuing slide. The Bernanke bar is being set very high, but what can he say or do at this point? Meanwhile, all 10 S&P sectors rose, Treasurys fell after a big auction, and gold slipped off record highs. NYSE gainers led losers five to one.   [View news story]
    Two possible reasons for the market's rise today:
    1] articles yesterday that hedge funds had heavily shorted the S&P 500.
    2] Betting against the consensus that Bernanke won't have much to offer in Friday's speech. Taking the bet that Bernanke instead will make a surprise announcement that would juice the markets makes sense, given the Fed chairman's propensity so far to want to play the hero.
    Aug 23, 2011. 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A pair of institutional shareholders call for breaking up McGraw-Hill (MHP) - splitting education, information and media businesses off from Standard & Poor's ratings, which they say needs a "well-known independent oversight figure" to help improve relations with regulators and the public amid U.S. downgrade fallout. MHP was exploring an education spinoff; shares +0.9% AH. (SEC filing)   [View news story]
    So let me get this straight. S&P, which got in trouble because it showed itself to be independent of political pressure, is in need of a "well-known independent oversight figure"? What S&P in fact needs is a political flak catcher to take some of the pressure off so it can do it's job as it sees fit.
    Aug 22, 2011. 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The President today had a phone chat with Warren Buffett about the state of the economy and measures to spur investment and growth. The details of the conversation are unknown, but Buffett and his partner Charlie Munger were major advocates then and now of the 2008/09 financial bailouts.   [View news story]
    I should have added housing to the list of Buffett's old fashioned businesses.
    Aug 22, 2011. 04:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The President today had a phone chat with Warren Buffett about the state of the economy and measures to spur investment and growth. The details of the conversation are unknown, but Buffett and his partner Charlie Munger were major advocates then and now of the 2008/09 financial bailouts.   [View news story]
    One of the reasons for the slowing economy may be that the technological innovations of last century have diminished. Buffett is knowing for investing in old fashioned businesses [insurance, newspapers, railroads] that have a moat around them, and staying away from newer technology businesses that he "can't understand." It's clear why he would want the government to throw trillions at propping up the economy for his old fashioned businesses. I'm not sure that he should be the last word on what we as a nation need.
    Aug 22, 2011. 03:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Quote of the day: "If it's not a recession, it sure feels like one. And if it feels like one, it doesn’t matter if you can prove it with statistics or not,” Natixis Global's John Hailer says.   [View news story]
    “Violent fires soon burn out themselves; Small showers last long, but sudden storms are short.” William Shakespeare, money manager, Stratford-upon-Avon
    Aug 19, 2011. 12:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cleveland Fed chief Sandra Pianalto counters the opinions aired this week by dissenting Fed members, asserting a combination of weak GDP growth and low inflation justified keeping rates near zero until mid-2013. Pianalto expects just 2% GDP growth this year, followed by 3% growth in 2012 and 2013.   [View news story]
    Woops, Tony. Thanks for the compliment. I had pulled my comment "I guess the Fed now has a third mandate: GDP targetting." Figured it was time to stop posting to the forum and time to get back to losing, I mean making, my clients some money ;-)
    Aug 19, 2011. 10:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • In 2008 we experienced the failure of Lehman, AIG and the GSEs. Today we are witnessing sovereign nations on the brink of failure. In 2008 there was the palpable fear of bank runs. Today, it's a potential for currency runs. In 2008 there were government bailouts. Today there are central bank bailouts. But... this time everything's different, right?   [View news story]
    From tomorrow's Wall Street Journal "...analysts say European banks aren't likely to face the funding crunch witnessed in the 2008 and that such fears are largely overblown. For one thing, they have deeper pools of liquidity that they have been required to hold after the previous financial crisis, and banks can tap the European Central Bank's liquidity facility if needed. "We think the markets will focus on the negative rather than the fact that for the most part, globally, given the central bank borrowing facilities, good borrowers will have no trouble funding," said analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods in a note published Thursday. "
    Aug 18, 2011. 10:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In 2008 we experienced the failure of Lehman, AIG and the GSEs. Today we are witnessing sovereign nations on the brink of failure. In 2008 there was the palpable fear of bank runs. Today, it's a potential for currency runs. In 2008 there were government bailouts. Today there are central bank bailouts. But... this time everything's different, right?   [View news story]
    I claim no expertise on French banking financials. But so far there has been mostly just vague rumors by anonymous sources. Let's compare that to the Lehman situation, per Wikipedia: "In 2008, Lehman faced an unprecedented loss due to the continuing subprime mortgage crisis. Lehman's loss was apparently a result of having held on to large positions in subprime and other lower-rated mortgage tranches when securitizing the underlying mortgages. Whether Lehman did this because it was simply unable to sell the lower-rated bonds, or made a conscious decision to hold them, is unclear. In any event, huge losses accrued in lower-rated mortgage-backed securities throughout 2008. In the second fiscal quarter, Lehman reported losses of $2.8 billion and was forced to sell off $6 billion in assets.[6] In the first half of 2008 alone, Lehman stock lost 73% of its value as the credit market continued to tighten.[6] In August 2008, Lehman reported that it intended to release 6% of its work force, 1,500 people, just ahead of its third-quarter-reporting deadline in September."
    Aug 18, 2011. 09:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • In 2008 we experienced the failure of Lehman, AIG and the GSEs. Today we are witnessing sovereign nations on the brink of failure. In 2008 there was the palpable fear of bank runs. Today, it's a potential for currency runs. In 2008 there were government bailouts. Today there are central bank bailouts. But... this time everything's different, right?   [View news story]
    In August of 2008, 3-month LIBOR was 280 basis points; today it's only about 30 basis points.
    Aug 18, 2011. 09:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P, which said earlier this month that state and local governments could retain AAA ratings even after it cut the U.S. to AA+, now says reductions in federal spending could lead to downgrades of municipal bonds. Ratings changes would come based on “differing levels of reliance on federal funding, and varying management capabilities."   [View news story]
    S&P's statement sounds perfectly rational; that must mean it's time for the SEC to announce another witch hunt at the ratings agencies ;-)
    Aug 18, 2011. 05:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is 2011 a repeat of 2008? The general view is that it isn't. But just as the collapse of Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers featured a crisis of confidence that froze up lending, the current turmoil has a lot to do with solvency fears for European banks - fears made worse by news of a Euro bank borrowing $500M from the ECB.   [View news story]
    I'm no expert, but so far, LIBOR is no where near where it was in 2008. There's been talk that LIBOR may no longer reflect market sentiment as well it did...but still.
    And FYI...Economist just published a helpful article on the financial condition of Frendh Banks...www.economist.com/node...
    Aug 18, 2011. 02:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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