Daniel Herkes

Ugly Jobs Report Puts a Dent in V-Shaped Recovery Scenario

Very well said. Thanks for your insight.


On Oct 04 07:29 AM markfl wrote:

> Good article. People get preoccupied witht the notion that employment
> is a lagging indicator. Unemployment is, but a number of stats in
> the monthly report aren't. Your chart shows that a general uptrend
> in the average workweek marks the end of recessions. One reason the
> markets lack direction is that it won't be until December that more
> monthly data come in to show whether 3 mo. trends a actually moving
> forward or retreating.
>
> Data in recoveries is volatile. Even in expansions, the workweek
> bounces around up and down. We therefore react to any postive or
> negative monthly number more strongly than reality mandates. The
> economy could simply be trying to get traction, but it could--and
> there is a risk--be stumbling. The preliminary drop in September
> average work hours was very negative. By the end of the year, revisions
> will show whether June was the bottom. July through Sept. may get
> revised upward, and Q3 GDP may exceed expectations. You never know.
> But, if Q3 is weak there is always that danger that you could get
> a downward revision to 29.9 weekly hours: a new bottom. I could not
> imagine worse news for the economy and the labor market.