Daniel Herkes

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

The dollar purchases are interesting. I suppose the bet is on that the commodity prices have reached the asset bubble phase. That make the dollar look pretty good. Jeez, what a choice! The up/down flat-line market thrashes on. The squid feeds on CDS's, and the hapless investor (me) cannot get a trade in edgewise. My money is not at all valuable, and the commodities and equities, are valued in said currency.

Preview: October Employment Report

Thank you for the comprehensive and balanced review and explanation.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Up and down. But the end result will be a flat market. Are there earnings, except Cash for Fords? The unemployment rate is is still around 10 percent. The trading appears to be machines hedging pennies.

What Happens If Roubini Is Right?

Thanks for the interesting perspective. Dr. Roubini has been pretty quiet for a few weeks pending the directions of the US dollar and markets apparent direction. I would tend to agree that the asset bubble caused by the quantitive easing is in danger of bursting. How soon depends on how many of the debt instruments our creditor decide to purchase, and the perception that unemployment is a huge factor in the recovery. He has now spoken!

Unemployment Has Become a Leading Indicator

I agree. At this time unemployment is not a lagging indicator. The last time this was the case, was - when? 1932?

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I expected a small rally myself, until the housing numbers came! I'd have to read all of these charts differently to draw another conclusion. If Mr. Fry just puts the information out there, I'm willing to make my own mistakes. I make plenty of mistakes. . . As per another article this morning, employment is defiantly a leading indicator - now.

Tuesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

The cat had one heck of a bounce this time.

'John Maynard Keynes and International Relations: Economic Paths to War and Peace,' by Donald Markwell

Good review. Thanks for the guide to an interesting read.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

I think all those dead loans are starting to be a problem. How long can any bank hide bad assets? Here in N. Illinois, and this is subject to locale, people stand around at the gas pumps, in grocery store lines - wherever - and talk about the "economy." Again, subjectively, people are worried and skeptical. The trust is going fast.

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

If not collapse, then a weak slow growing economy with a lot of slack. The 800 unemployment gorilla sits in the room. How about those contributions? Wow.


On Oct 21 05:51 AM Rantor wrote:

> Why is no one talking about the fact that the profits at many of
> these companies is on a lot less total revenue. CAT down 44% year
> on year! That is not good news and speaks to the bigger trend in
> the economy, collapse.

Elizabeth Warren: 'Big Banks Always Get What They Want'

Thank you for information. I thought this was foreseeable. But many people are just too busy trying to get by. It is not as though the banks are really all that forthcoming with the details of their relationship with the government.

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

Thank you for the summary. You have an objective perspective as far as I can tell. When this bubble pops the other half of the W will emerge. It is just a matter of when.

Dow 10k: The Higher They Rise, The Harder They Fall

Thank you for the interesting article. The rally is mostly hot air, and the 10 000 mark is without value. I contrast this time to the early eighties when the interest rates were near 15%. Cash was king, and the seeds of destruction caused by the strong dollar were being sown.

Bearish on Banks - Why Now Is the Time to Sell

Thank you for the analysis. I found much to think about in your writing today.

Ugly Jobs Report Puts a Dent in V-Shaped Recovery Scenario

Very well said. Thanks for your insight.


On Oct 04 07:29 AM markfl wrote:

> Good article. People get preoccupied witht the notion that employment
> is a lagging indicator. Unemployment is, but a number of stats in
> the monthly report aren't. Your chart shows that a general uptrend
> in the average workweek marks the end of recessions. One reason the
> markets lack direction is that it won't be until December that more
> monthly data come in to show whether 3 mo. trends a actually moving
> forward or retreating.
>
> Data in recoveries is volatile. Even in expansions, the workweek
> bounces around up and down. We therefore react to any postive or
> negative monthly number more strongly than reality mandates. The
> economy could simply be trying to get traction, but it could--and
> there is a risk--be stumbling. The preliminary drop in September
> average work hours was very negative. By the end of the year, revisions
> will show whether June was the bottom. July through Sept. may get
> revised upward, and Q3 GDP may exceed expectations. You never know.
> But, if Q3 is weak there is always that danger that you could get
> a downward revision to 29.9 weekly hours: a new bottom. I could not
> imagine worse news for the economy and the labor market.