Daniel Herkes

Are We Heading Toward a Market Crash by Jobless Recovery?

Thank you for the balanced perspective and well researched article. Indeed employment is now a current leading economic indicator.

First Stocks, Then the Economy...Is Job Growth Next?

Just wondering because I'm not clear about this. What are the unemployed people going to work at when they do work again?

Our Current Economic Illusions

Nice. I would also point out that the denizens of most totalitarian regimes learn to read between the lines. If they can still read . . .


On Dec 04 04:41 AM User 353732 wrote:

> 2. THe US Regime knows full well that bad or dishonest or tentative
> initial "headline" statistics get broadcast and misrepresented by
> a morally callow and intellectually vapid MSM to promote ideological
> agendas and abuse the public trust. The revised or detailed numbers
> and analysis is generally ignored even though they may ,in fact,
> negate the "headline".
>
> 3. The US Regime knows that Orwellian "newspeak" can, for a season,
> be highly effective( e.g. fewer people lost their jobs is called
> "improving" employment situation; retail sales declined slower than
> a month ago is called "positive trend"; bad economic news is dismissed
> as a "lagging"indicator.
>dissonance.

Should Investors Be Frightened by Rising Unemployment?

The chart also indicates that this set of conditions has never before existed. I went through the recessions of the seventies & eighties. There is no comparison to be found there. The jobs that have been lost this time are not coming back. Might ten percent unemployment not be the new normal? Why do you think all this "free" money isn't finding its way down to the consumer?

Cease-and-Desist and Other FDIC Administrative Orders

I read these as a legal warning to stop the illegal practices, such as not complying with the FDIC guidelines. The next step is seizure and the forced sale of assets and liabilities to a going concern.


On Nov 28 04:45 PM Dialectical Materialist wrote:

> Are these the banks that were closed, or banks that may soon be closed?

Why the Stock Market Should Crash

I agree. The changes in our economy, such as the development of two largely unrelated economies, will produce a lower set of expectations over time. The stock market and the housing market, at least at this time, are not that closely related as they once were.


On Nov 16 05:52 PM Adel Antado wrote:

> Nice article on why real-estate is on the decline, but the article
> does not speak to reasons why the stock-market will suddenly crash.
>
>
> The reality is that high-unemployment has always been good for the
> market since it puts downward pressure upon the cost of labor providing
> cheaper goods and services and higher profits for shareholders.
>
>
> What I see is a slower trend and narrower swings as our economy readjusts
> to tighter money at higher costs, the efficient companies doing much
> better than the market average while the less-efficient ones decline
> or disappear.Isn't that part of the cycle? The remaining companies
> will be more efficient and profitable substaining the market and
> more growth.

Preview: October Employment Report

Thank you for the comprehensive and balanced review and explanation.

Dow 10k: The Higher They Rise, The Harder They Fall

Thank you for the interesting article. The rally is mostly hot air, and the 10 000 mark is without value. I contrast this time to the early eighties when the interest rates were near 15%. Cash was king, and the seeds of destruction caused by the strong dollar were being sown.

Is the Jobs Data a Concern?

Yes. And the new jobs need to be stable. I work with a bunch of nervous people. They have legitimate anxieties about jobs and all that a job entails. Houses, cars, and trips to the mall for Christmas all depend on a stable job.

On Oct 01 11:33 PM Denis Gould wrote:

> The only thing that matters now is creating
> employment.

John McLaughlin: More Clueless Economic Banter

I am afraid that the standard of living has been replaced by the standard of accumulating foreign crap! Don't think for a moment that enslaving our children with 10 trillion dollars of debt is an improvement, it clearly is not. As my unsophisticated father-in-law said, "You get paid interest, you don't pay it."

You consumers "got" this all wrong.


On Apr 16 02:03 PM Cetin Hakimoglu wrote:

> But look how much the standard of living has risen for Americans
> since the 40's.

Ray Dalio: A Long and Painful Depression - Barron's Interview

The economy is in such turmoil that the eventual bottom is still not in sight. We are in a hiatus caused by the new administration trying to grapple with a dynamic changing situation. They may not be able to correct anything in the long run with the stimulus package, but that will not prevent them from trying. I suspect folks want them to just do something!

Even after the direction of the plan becomes apparent, the effect on the economy will not be clear. The disbursal of funds will take a year or so to make their way to main street. The distressed consumers live there, not on Wall street. I do hope the plan works, but this looks suspiciously like a depression right now.

2009 Economic Forecasts Ignore Demographic Shift

Good analysis. The baby boomers are beginning to act like old people. That's because old people have better sense when it comes to discretionary purchases, and are unwilling to leverage. I wonder what the mindset of the young will be like after they have a taste of this sort of setback? Will they resemble the dollar stretching, penny pinching generation of the depression?