Pau

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

A basic summary for anyone paying attention. Where is the insight, David? Nothing here, really.

Ken Heebner's First Quarter 2009 Moves

While CGMFX has one of the best 10-year annualized returns among Large Growth funds at more that 18%, many are surprised to learn that CGMFX dollar-weighted returns have been HORRIFIC at -15% annualized for 10-years! That is, the *average* investor in CGMFX has been crushed by chasing 'supposed' performance.

Robert Prechter Has Gone Bearish

Prechter's long-term track record is horrific. He need to sail off into the sunset on that ridiculous wave of his.
tiny.cc/Prechter

Buy and Hold Is Alive and Well

Nick ~ Your 'research' here suffers badly from survivorship bias. During the period you selected, there were more than 200 (!) deletions from the S&P 500 -- with roughly a third of these not satisfying the share price, liquidity, market capitalization, company fundamentals or other index criteria. A Monte Carlo study of 35 randomly selected stocks from 1989 S&P 500 components would produce a staggeringly huge distribution of possible returns. Of course, it would also often result in holding far fewer than 35 stocks at the end of the period, adding additional risk...

Chart of the Day - Inflation Adjusted Dow

This chart is quite meaningless as it excludes dividends ~ which accounted for a large part of the gains for many of the charted years...

Is Gold on a Deflationary Death Watch?

Guarino is a fraud:
www.cftc.gov/newsroom/...

Sentiment Overview: Bears Take the Lead

Nice sentiment overview.
What is your source for the follow info?:

"current recommended allocation by the average Wall St. strategist. Right now they’ve peaked at a suggestion of 38.9% of client portfolios to (US long term) bonds, which is the highest in 12+ years"

Is the S&P 500 Now Cheap?

Consider Morningstar's methodology:
"Morningstar calculates average price ratios for indexes and investment portfolios using the harmonic weighted average. This method compares the total market value of the portfolio to the portfolio’s share of the underlying stocks’ earnings (or book value, cash flow, sales or dividends). Morningstar prefers the harmonic method to an arithmetic weighted average, because outliers can easily skew the results of the arithmetic method."

Why Jeremy Siegel's S&P Earnings Analysis Is Wrong

Consider Morningstar's methodology:
"Morningstar calculates average price ratios for indexes and investment portfolios using the harmonic weighted average. This method compares the total market value of the portfolio to the portfolio’s share of the underlying stocks’ earnings (or book value, cash flow, sales or dividends). Morningstar prefers the harmonic method to an arithmetic weighted average, because outliers can easily skew the results of the arithmetic method."

Measuring the True Value Added by Hedge Funds: It May Be Worse than You Think

'Dollar-weighted returns.' Good research/data is here:
www.mccombs.utexas.edu...
The conclusion: "dollar-weighted investor returns are about 4 percent
lower than [hedge] fund returns."

Hedge Funds: What Happens When the Chickens Come Home to Roost?

Several hedge outfits got ahead of the ongoing liquidation trades -- which, of course, provides a floor...