RTF 360

Where's the Outrage at the Banks?

Where's the Outrage at the Banks?
Surely you jest Mr. Brown.

The Fall of the Republic --- The Presidency of Barack H. Obama
www.youtube.com/watch?...

Is a Crash Impending?

Had you been the greatest bear trader in America and gotten short PERFECTLY at 9,630 in the CBOT DOW Jones futures last week friday and went home short DESPITE the higher high on the week and the higher weekly close, all you have in the trade is 200 points and the inability to go through the slow moving average or take out 9,100.
As we have been saying since St. Patrick's Day; "All the surprises are on the upside"
While everyone else is getting a tan and drinking beer because "the market is like watching paint dry" , I'm glued to the screen. This is exciting for a technical trader.

Prediction , Karl Denninger will get capitulate on his amageddon scenario and get long at 10,000 on the DOW

Sector ETF strength: Semis– IGW +2.5%. Transports– IYT +2.4%. Homebuilders– XHB +2.2%. Nasdaq– QQQQ +2%. Industrials– XLI +2%. Sector ETF weakness: Agriculture– DBA -2.3%. Heating Oil– UHN -1.6%. Gasoline– UGA -0.6%. Commodities– DBC -0.5%.

Had you been the greatest bear trader in America and gotten short perfect at 9,630 last week and went home short DESPITE the higher high on the week and the higher weekly close, all you have in the trade is 200 points and the inability to go through the slow moving average or take out 9,100.

As we have been saying since St. Patrick's Day; "All the surprises are on the upside"
While everyone else is getting a tan and drinking beer because "the market is like watching paint dry" , I'm glued to the screen. This is exciting for a technical trader.

The CFTC Is Needlessly Breaking Good Products

" Capo dei capi: The leader of all leaders or boss of bosses. The most powerful Mafia boss to whom all others defer."

Can't tell the players without a program;

www.brucewiseman.net/i...

Bruce is a genius

Obama to Reduce Budget Deficit on 'Fewer' than Expected Bank Failures

Tyler, you are clearly a genius and a national treasure.

That being said; you'd better give up the ghost on the DOW going down. It will close the week above the Fibonacci .382 retracement thus announcing to the bears that their toast.

I only hope to have a whole bunch of red thumbs down so the volitiility to the up side is big.

The Market Bubble Is About to Pop

Quinn, you are way, way too smart to hang that out there with just a stinkin' url to explain yourself.

BTW ; How 'bout that DOW Quinn ?

Time to do an article Quinn ; "How to make Fascism Work For Me While I Wait for the Civil War."


www.cmegroup.com/tradi...

you'll notice the stand made at 9,363 on the CBOT DOW future in the last 2 hours confirming my Fibonacci calculations.
They got the stops above 9,360 before closing.
Bears got religion this afternoon.

www.cmegroup.com/popup...($5)&type=p

Sent: Saturday, August 08, 2009 11:18 AM
Subject: For your thoughtful consideration

Fibonacci retracements are an important big picture benchmark for market observers who use technical analysis.{IN ALL MARKETS}
The DOW future at the CBOT made an all time high of 14,060
the low of the bear market move was 6,460.
the total number of points lost from the top Thursday October 11,2007 was 7,600.

A .382% Fibonacci retracement of the total bear market would be 2,903 points.
6,460 plus 2,903 points is 9,363 on the CBOT DOW future.


My technical work has the tradable resistance between 9,700 & 10,000.
Market participants are and will continue to be acutely aware of Fridays high and may stage a bear raid from there. Know how they will be thinking.
Those same follower of Fibonacci retracements will be forced to capitulate and call for a 50% or for Fibonacci purists, a .618% retracement , should the .382% retracement at 9,363 fail to hold as resistance

10,260 is the 50% retracement {6,460 + 3,800}
11,156 is the .618 % retracement {6,460 + 4,696}

On Aug 12 03:07 PM James Quinn wrote:

> Fat drunk and stupid is no way to go through life, son.
>
> theburningplatform.com...

The Market Bubble Is About to Pop

It's not a "bubble".
Dr. Leeb deals in the abstract and theoretical and obviously hasn't a clue to the practical.

Every company in America is licking their chops for Obama Care thus releasing themselves from paying health care premium payments.

Clearly most of the readers of this blog just don't "get it" because they never had to carry the crucifix of paying for an entire company's health care obligation year in and year out.

Every dime of money that is not paid into health care is free money...unforseen profit...bottom line bonanza.
It will pump up profitibility, stock prices , stock options prices , CEO pay and above all be a greased skid to Fascism.
Rebutt that boys with cold hard facts ...not theory or ideological rhetoric.
The DJIN will print 12,000 because NONE of you calculated for this.
Not even the Obama Bankster Oligarchy.

www.liveleak.com/view?... this "must watch video" it is great and beyond rebuttal ;
"Washington does not have the Constitutional or moral authority to outlaw private markets"

Dow Theory Sees Bull Market Signal

Reparations don't have to come with 40 acres and a mule.
21st Century reparations can just keep giving and giving via nationalized health care.

When Obama takes all the Boomer health care benefits and gives them to his supporters it will not only be "eugenics" it will be good strategic politics. He doesn't want the Boomer vote , he wants the Boomers dead and off Social Security and health care.

There is a reason the stock market is going up.
When those corporations don't have to pay for health care because it was nationalized , all the money goes straight to the bottom line as pure {& completely unforeseen}profit .

Yale's Shiller Still Glum on the Economy, Housing

A turn in housing ? William C. Wheaton, Professor of Economics, MIT.....Schiller is obliged to rebutt Wheaton's arguement.


This column argues that fundamentals on the supply side of the housing market imply that US housing prices are about to bottom out. They should resume rising soon.

Is it possible we are at the bottom of the first dip in the "W" type recovery? An intriguing article was recently written by MIT's William Wheaton, who argues that net new household formation will soon create significant demand by using up existing inventory in the housing market. That demand may be sufficient to stabilize prices and stimulate new construction. It's a matter of demographics.

From VOX, William C. Wheaton:



During the last decade, net new household formation averaged approximately 1.4 million per year. Last year, the Census reported that the US added only 544,000 new households – during severe contractions the young stay at home, singles “double up”, and household formation (normally) slows. Even with declining demographics, however, most analysts foresee new household growth resuming to a level of at least 1 million by 2010 and beyond. If we conservatively add 200,000 demolitions per year, the US economy will “need” at least 1.25 million new units yearly in the near future. With today’s currently depressed construction, this generates a yearly deficit of 750,000 units.

At that rate, the current excess inventory of units for sale or rent will be back below normal by 2011. Prices historically have a strong relationship with sales “duration” – the ratio of inventory-to-sales. Hence under reasonable conditions, in two years we will have to increase construction considerably and prices will have to justify the cost of that construction.

24 Trillion Reasons to Buy Gold

zerohedge.blogspot.com...

The $23.7 Trillion Backstop Heist




"dear taxpayer, (you) are being robbed by the Too Big To Fails and the Reserve Banking System. Much more info contained in this report, which attempts to grasp just how pervasive the involuntary taxpayer support of Wall Street is, including a great overview of the Federal Reserve Banking System

look for a 1 to 3.9 reverse "split" on the dollar.
Stocks and real estate are the safe haven.
Tell the transfer agent/ registrar you want physical possession of the stock certificate

Is the U.S. Dollar the Fed's Next Weapon?

zerohedge.blogspot.com/



look for a 1 to 3.9 reverse "split" on the dollar.
Stocks and real estate are the safe haven.
Tell the transfer agent/ registrar you want physical possession of the stock certificate

Goldman's Success: Put Down Those Pitchforks

Ryan Avent does not have the credentials to opine on this .

Tavakoli on the other hand "wrote the book"

For your inspection;
www.cnn.com/2009/POLIT...

Goldman Sachs: Blame the Monster, Or Its Creators?

The "trade " was set up and is known as the "Greenspan Put".

Rubin set up Citi bank by ordering Thomas G. Maheres to write credit default swaps untill the pens went dry.
Ever hear Maheres name again? He was at one time slated to be Chairman of Citi ?
Cassano at AIG and Neal at MLPF&S jumped on the Rubin band wagon only to find out at the end of their careers that they to had been set up by the GSA Banksters.

Greenspan went to John Paulson & Co to cash in his chips.
Rubin got pad through GSA
The politicians who empowered the CDS raid on the system have numbered foreign bank accounts that were paid with the $780 billion TARP that made good on the GE,AIG, Citi, Bear, Lehman etc CDS that they bought.

www.prnewswire.co.uk/c......

In "their" world there are only the takers and the taken.
It is indefensible when the "taken" fall back on ideology to excuse the crime that Max Keiser so succinctly and articulately described.

zerohedge.blogspot.com...

Why Does Goldman Sachs Need a Fed Exemption for VaR Calculations?

www.cnn.com:80/2009/PO...

for Janet Tavakoli the woman who litteraly "wrote the book" on structured investment vehicles and OTC swaps to turn on Goldman Sachs is earth shattering news in the world of high finance.
Please read and share widely; she has busted these Banksters for what they are ; thieves and thugs.

Goldman Sachs does't have "earnings" they have booty & loot.

Goldman Sachs Political Capital Ratio Is Inadequate

What Wall Street Owes You (Commentary)

CNN – July 15, 2009

By Janet Tavakoli



Goldman Sachs Group Inc. announced record earnings Tuesday of $3.44 billion for the second quarter of 2009.



Goldman's stock price leapt 77 percent for the first half of 2009, and closed Tuesday at $149.66 a share.



Without an ongoing series of front- and backdoor bailouts financed by U.S. taxpayers, most of Goldman's record profits would not have been possible.



In April 2009, Goldman Sachs' CEO, Lloyd Blankfein, who received record salary and bonus compensation of $68.5 million in 2007, said that bonus decisions made before the credit crisis looked "self-serving and greedy in hindsight." Now, they look self-serving and greedy with foresight.



Goldman set aside $11.4 billion for employee compensation and benefits, up 33 percent from last year. That's enough to pay each employee more than $390,000, just for the first six months of this year.



In June, Goldman bought back its preferred shares, repaying $10 billion it received from the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program, or TARP, and setting it free of limits on executive compensation and dividends.



But pay is not the key issue. U.S. taxpayers deserve a large cut of the profits, not the chump change -- less than a half-billion dollars -- they got from preferred shares in the company and the relatively small amount they could get from warrants in its stock.



U.S. taxpayers should insist that a large part of Goldman's revenues and profits belong to the American public. TARP money was just part of a series of bailouts and concessions that allowed Goldman to prosper at the expense of a flawed regulatory system.



In March 2008, Goldman, a primary dealer in Treasury securities, was among the beneficiaries of a massive backdoor bailout by the Federal Reserve Bank. At the time, Henry Paulson, former CEO of Goldman Sachs, was treasury secretary.



In an unprecedented move, the Fed created a Term Securities Lending Facility, or TSLF, that allowed primary dealers like Goldman to give non-government-guaranteed "triple-A" rated assets to the Fed in exchange for loans. The trouble was that everyone knew the triple-A assets were not the safe securities they were advertised to be. Many were backed by mortgage loans that were failing at super speed.



The bailout of American International Group, or AIG, ballooned from $85 billion in September 2008 to $182.5 billion. Of that money, $90 billion was funneled as collateral payments to banks that traded with AIG. American taxpayers may never see a dime of their bailout money again, but Goldman saw plenty.



Goldman may be the largest indirect beneficiary of AIG's bailout, receiving $12.9 billion in collateral, including securities lending transactions, from AIG after the government bailed out the insurance company.



The key question is whether Goldman asked AIG to insure products that were as dodgy as the doomed deal from Goldman Sachs Alternative Mortgage Products exposed by Fortune's Allan Sloan in his October 16, 2007, Loeb Award-winning article: "Junk Mortgages Under the Microscope."



If the federal government had not intervened and if AIG had gone into bankruptcy, Goldman probably would not have received its $12.9 billion from AIG. U.S. taxpayers and the American economy are owed some of the bailout money passed directly through AIG to Goldman.



Wall Street firms also reaped trading windfalls when AIG needed to close out its derivative transactions. This was the most lucrative windfall business in the history of the derivatives markets. When AIG left money on the table, it was U.S. taxpayer money.



Goldman Sachs was granted bank holding company status in the fall of 2008. It already had the temporary ability to borrow from the Fed through the TSLF, which would have expired in January 2009. Now it has permanent access to lending from the Fed.



Goldman can now compete with the largest U.S. banks and borrow money at interest rates pushed as close to zero as possible by the Fed. Goldman gets a further benefit: favorable accounting rule changes. In addition, Goldman issued $30 billion of debt with a valuable government guarantee that remains outstanding.



Meanwhile, the American public faces a rising unemployment rate, falling housing prices, rising unemployment, higher local taxes and a dismal economic outlook.



Interested men with reputations and fortunes at stake rode roughshod over public interest. The American public is owed part of the profits Goldman was able to make because of the largesse of our Congress.



Wall Street's "financial meth labs," including Goldman's, massively pumped out bad bonds and credit derivatives that have melted down savings accounts, pension funds, the municipal bond market and the American economy. Risky assets, leverage and fraud led to acute distress in the global financial markets.



The biggest crime on the American economy may go unpunished with no consequences to the perpetrators. The biggest crime was not predatory lending, but predatory securitizations, packages of loans that did not deserve the ratings or prices at the time they were sold. They ballooned what should have been a relatively small problem into a global crisis.



Wall Street owes the American public for its key role in bringing the global economy -- and in particular, the U.S. economy -- to its knees. Goldman is not alone in owing the American public. It is not the worst of all of the Wall Street firms. But among all of Wall Street's offenders, it is the most well-connected, and Goldman was the firm that cleaned up the most as the result of government bailouts.



The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Janet Tavakoli.



Janet Tavakoli is the president of Tavakoli Structured Finance, a Chicago-based firm that provides consulting to financial institutions and institutional investors. Ms. Tavakoli has more than 20 years of experience in senior investment banking positions, trading, structuring and marketing structured financial products. She is a former adjunct associate professor of derivatives at the University of Chicago's Graduate School of Business. Author of: Credit Derivatives & Synthetic Structures (1998, 2001), Collateralized Debt Obligations & Structured Finance (2003), Structured Finance & Collateralized Debt Obligations (John Wiley & Sons, September 2008), and

Dear Mr. Buffett: What An Investor Learns 1,269 Miles From Wall Street (Wiley, 2009).





Janet Tavakoli

President

Tavakoli Structured Finance, Inc.

360 E. Randolph St., Suite 3007

Chicago, Illinois 60601 USA

[phone]

e-mail: jt@tavakolistructuredf...

web site: tavakolistructuredfina...