socrateazz

How Can We Get the Economy Back on Track?

I agree with all but number 6 That is an excuse to justify wealth in businesses which are mostly losing value because their production is not currently toward increasing business wealth as much as trying to hold the wealth coming in. The good economy I believe is the result of pulling wealth out of companies for the last twenty years and moving it through society. The problem is: Most of that source of wealth is gone and will not be back. The attempt of taking wealth from the people will not be accepted as easily. For one thing the middle class has been inudated by income tax creep. Those close to poverty used to pay nothing. Now they are the source of income. Progressivity at work! If the balance of trade does not even out, there will be no help for US citizens for the wealth has been sucked over seas. Government grows to believe it is essential for their country so it inflates until their is little left for the workers. Dark ages revisited. My take....What goes around comes around. And it is coming fast!

Liars, Damn Liars and Averagers: The Wall Street Journal on Stimulus

I believe stimulus can work. But the effect is a later dampening in the economy from taking wealth back out of the economy. On the other side calling The actions of the last year a stimulus is like blowing up a balloon and saying the balloon is lighter because we added hot air. Seems to be true but is it? Stimulus is a short term thing and the Bush tax cuts were a very good example of such. The problems within the economy are systemic and manipulated by people I would call stupider than fools. They are so sure their beliefs are real that they ignore reality in favor of belief which does incidentally seem to be actuality

The Difference Between Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy, and Capital Markets Policy

I do not know why but your statements confused me. The government has been working on incentives to purchase for years. Once implemented any policy using such a method has deminishing returns. For instance reducing interest rate slightly once caused big changes in spending. As that method was used a greater percentage change in interest was needed to get an expected result. Many people already have spent the limit based on their earnings. Others will not respond to that type manipulation. That method has pretty much played out. There are millions of strategies which could cause more or less purchasing in the future. Most of those strategies will have an opposite effect of reducing production. At any rate any strategy which does not increase the buying power of the people and the production power of the producers will contribute to a worsening economy. Has Obama's policies improved the average persons buying power? Have they led to businesses increasing production? Where do we go from here? I think the cuban model is very possible. But I am just a fool anyway! The fool is the person the majority does not want to listen to until reality causes re-evaluation of beliefs

The FDIC Just Doesn't Get the Economic Situation

I think the prepaying is an attempt to keep from raising premiums. There are enough groups working in arrears right now with out the insurance needing to be under water also. I guess we can all drown in debt together. That is what Germany was looking at in the early 1930's See where it went? The military complex brought Germany out of their problems. But once produced there are incentives to use such. Especially when Germany thought all their neighboring countries had evil governments from their viewpoint. Fix europe by force was a strong belief. Of course the belief ones worth is in ones power did not hurt the leaders at that time either.

The Taxman Comes Knocking

So true. But who will have the moneys to pay? Will the wage earners? Not likely! Will the businesses? Highly unlikely? Only those with wealth or collecting wealth now. Ok the foriegners who loan the money. Only in the sense they will not get their wealth back. Only those who have wealth can pay it. I expect they will move their wealth elsewhere before it can be confiscated by the wonderful leaders. I do not really think that is enough. So the future generations will be slaves unto the current brilliant policies! Is that evil? Of course evil is just a view based on others beliefs. And the beliefs will change when forced to! How interesting Obama's change will be! LOL LOL LOL

China: More Trade Tensions

I think Poverty is the result of attitude more than anything else. The greater the expectation others are responsible for what happens to you the more likely you are to be poor because you do not act to improve your status which is one of the most important actions one can take to change that status. The poor usually continue what ever they have been doing which often is little more than nothing. Those moving up usually act and some of their action improves things usually.

The Dollar May Not Be Doomed

My own thinking is The fact that a few have increasing amounts of total assets is not as disturbing as the fact most of those with the increasing assets are less productive for society. Those monies are going increasingly toward less productive uses. The combination of the two is causing havoc with the middle class. Especially the neglected and over taxed. The most productive in society are doing their best within society and then all sides take some forcing those productive to become even more so while the poorest are protected often resulting in a better living for them than the actual worker with even less responsabillity. The fate of the wealthiest often depend upon financial instruments. Ultimately all depends on more creation of total wealth than destruction of total wealth. Where are we going? Toward rewards to use wealth. Punishment when creating wealth. And expectations for more taxes paid withdrawing wealth. I expect we will move toward destruction with the current policies. We will see

The Metamorphosis of a Bear into a Bull

Roses are red violets are blue. I expect to see more violets than roses in the near future. Until and unless the labor situation improves, Stocks may increase in prices, but I think their real values should decline. Of course lack of places to put wealth released by government may prove my expectations wrong. But not really.Helium may make a ballon float in air. What happens when the helium leaves the balloon? Or it pops?

The Dollar: A Strong Buy

who knows the future? I can see a better argument for a short term increase in the dollars value. But long term I expect the fall to continue for the forseeable future. If balance of trade becomes positive toward the US then I would expect a dollar bottoming followed by a sustained value increase. But what will be depends on many things and I am not confident the countries leadership will make changes to what is until reality is understood as reality. I do not expect that in the curent belief based economics I see today. belief can move mountains. But if you are not careful the mountain will crush you and it does not matter if you moved it in the end.

Recession May Be Ending but Unemployment's Set to Rise

I agree with what you say. What worries me is that I think many businesses will have so little monetary backing that they will persist until they go bankrupt. The money was in businesses fifty years ago. Now it seems to be in the hands of non-producers. I really am convinced money has gone to the stock market because there are few other choices. There are enough people who have been waiting to enter the market that there are more afraid to get left behind than afraid the market will fall. Or that their stocks are not worth anything. If you base value on the underlying values relative to other periods of time then you will find the market is very extremely over priced. If you compare within the current market, it appears to be priced OK. I think too much wealth chasing too little value. The inflation is going toward stock values. Will it stay there? I am yet to be convinced. Maybe at the next stock peak I will again give in and get burned by the market going down. Intuitively I know that stocks are not worth much when strategies too withdraw wealth from those businesses become excessive. There is so much out of balance and geting worse today that I can not see a easy way out which is what most people expect. I hope I am more ignorant than I think I am!

The Problem with Free Markets? Look in the Mirror

The problem is not so much a blind spot per se. People see what the imediate effect of certain decisions are and assume the same decisions will produce the same result and thus value those similar future decisions the same. The thing is most first decisions which are effective actually move supply or demand toward a greater balance. The subsequent decisions make further movement toward balance until later overshooting balance. If not stopped soon a serious opposite imbalance will occur. The random walk graphs often illustrate those cycles. If you had serious problems in the near past them a quick reversal is probable. If the past imbalances have been minor as with the recent economy then a serious imbalance could hit hard. People do not react to reality until reality has become obvious. Until the US let Leman sink, there were not any adverse reactions. A little reality allowed to escape and serious things happened.

Economics and Its Discontents

I may be wrong. I think economists overvalue the short term effects of decisions made to correct imbalances. And they undervalue the consequences of future effects of those decisions. Major economic rules changes since 1980 have been few but really has put us where we are now. In the early eighties, Reagan pushed taxes on higher income people down. Because supply of goods was being overwhelmed by excess wealth going into the workers hands. Those workers attempted to spend that wealth causing a demand which pushed up prices. Inflation was the way of the future at that point. Reagan's policies caused a reversal. Some of those policies needed to be reduced in the 1990's because they were pushing too much wealth into the hands of the few. Instead they were pushed even further toward wealth redistribution toward the rich. Much continues today. Financial controls protected the banks from serious idiotcy for years. They kept banks from making decisions which would be good for the banks short term but had elements which could cause serious imbalances within banks. The problem is: Things which look good short term also have hidden consequences long term. I think we are in the beginings of a depression and I think the short term actions taken so far by those in control will have little positive long term effects. What do I know? Time will tell.

The Poverty Rate Is Vastly Understated

What is poverty? A number does not really do it justice. I think that when 95% of your income after taxes goes to needed goods, housing, and services. And you have less than 5% left to do with what you want, you are in poverty. The lower class has less than 25% left over after needs are met for optional expenditures. The middle class has less than 40% left over for optional use. The upper middle class has between 40 and 60% left over. And the rich have greater than 60% of their wealth not needed for living expenses. If that could somehow be quantified, then the real positions of people would be evident. I think we are seeing more rich and more poor and lower middle class in the US. I wish I knew a real fair way to balance that so there are more middle class. But neither side really believes the others views are fair because they really are not.

Inflation May Be the Solution

Right now ...I think news is not moving the market because it is so frequent and so abundant. People who believe news moves the market believe if news does not move the market then the opposite trend is likely. That has worked well for many years. And it seems to work today. So when negative news comes out people wait a few minutes to a few hours and take counter actions. Because if the news was good the actions taken by the big money will all ready be in place causing an over reaction that direction. And profits can be picked up on the counter move. The logic if bad news does not cause a serious drop then an up move is imanent seems to be in play also. Maybe I am just over annalysing. Reason does not always depend upon straightforword thinking. How much do people depend upon belief over reason? Often to a great degree.

JPMorgan Chase: How Much Capital Does a Bank Need?

I might be wrong but I fear the goal of the government is not for those banks to survive but to force them out of business while appearing to try to help. Thus causing people to believe the problem was private banks and not the type of government control. I think current leaders really want a giant government beaurocracy supported by businesses which will be sucked dry by the government vampirism. Proving in their minds that Capitalism is evil. And Communism is fair! A real oxymoron, But to morons that seems real!