socrateazz

How Low Can Crude Oil and Gas Go?

guess I said that wrong 66%

How Low Can Crude Oil and Gas Go?

I know momentum is down on many commodities. people expect trends to continue. I could see oil as low as $40 a barrel to as high as $150 per barrel in the next year. I am no expert on the subject. But if a small % change in demand can cause a 300% reduction in price then there is more of an effect caused by perception than actuallity.

Deflation, Monetary Velocity, and Why Gold's a Buy

sensable and logical. The short term gold may not be predictable. The table has been set for gold to soar with either outcome. I think it will be a falling dollar from a weakening faith in the dollar that will cause gold to soar along with most commodities. I suspect Obama will try to stop the commodity inflation and will cause shortages not seen since WWII.

The Truth About Bailouts

I agreed almost 100% with what he said until that last statement of accepting a lower standard now for a higher one in the future. We have gone through a period which probably will be concidered unequaled for a millinea as a utopian life. Even at that. People had things to complain about. The future will probably bring hardships concidered conquered in the past. There will be times of great wonders ahead. There also will be a society moving toward Socialism which will morph into a feudal society. In case you do not know it Socialism was undoubtedly the original intent of European communities. Serfdom or slavery (both are similar) is the likely result of the direction The US is heading. What goes around comes around. Contrary to most beliefs, most slavery was a situation where the slave helped the owner and the owner helped the slave. The punish to force labor was an exception not a rule. Serfism is the same

Why It's Not Different This Time: Facts for Comfort

most things are usually the same. Some things are often different. The key is to tell the difference between the sames and the differenences and the effects each will have! I do not know all. I think the things most concentrate on are often wrong. whether it be global warming or how financial markets will perform. The fact more folk can change their mind to the other view makes the less popular view more probable. Especially when the opposing view sticks to it's own view dispite it being cramed down their throats

The Gnomes of Zurich Will Have Their Revenge

I expect the US will go to the building boom to save the economy idea. I think all great economies eventually chose that idea. I believe Egypt did it with great tombs. I think the Roman empire did it. I think Germany did it last century! Unfortunately the the using of wealth to build will not really improve the economy in the end. It will put off the ultimate problems. Wealth creation needs to exceed wealth use and expiration in the end.

Surprising Call for Return to the Gold Standard

I may be wrong but it seems to me controls for control sake is ignorant and only really works as an excuse for what ever happens. In my eyes the US problem is really based on a trade deficit which is out of balance. The belief in the almighty dollar has caused the trade deficit to ballon past where it should have turned around. More problems will result. A second cause is something that always seems to happen in all societies probably for centuries. Production is being overwhelmed by other wants. The wealth created by production is moving too much into government and social uses. Soon, many of the producers will fail. Then shortages will result and increase. Those short items will result in a greater return to those who produce them. Those who make money on those goods will be branded as greedy forcing them to give up their production. then greater shortages will result. Redistribution of wealth is the only real way to interfere with this abyss. unfortunately people who use those cures over use them to detriment because they think the policy will continue to help because it has in the recent past. Reganomics was the right thing during the 1980's because the demand by the middle class for that produced had become excessive. There was a need to put wealth in the hands who did not spend it. The expansion of Reganomics in the 1990's actually caused a lot of the problems today. Too much wealth is now in the hands of those who do not spend it. The spending of wealth on goods causes more to be created. Spending wealth on government and redistribution of wealth through capital movement does not really produce wealth. Appearance is not really fact. Production =wealth creation. Government and social programs =wealth utilization. There needs to be an opproximate balance. The sign of a healthy economy is a large middle class. The middle class has been declining for twenty years in the US. The wealthy has been increasing markedly. And most of those with wealth have not made it by production as much as wealth redistribution. to those already wealthy. Warren Buffet would be one who comes to mind. A good economic balance needs to be created. Will it be? Obama's plan will help. The effectiveness will depend on how much wealth comes from the wealth producers, and how much comes from wealth accumulators. The quickest fix would be a one time wealth tax of 5% for anybody who owns more than 5 million in wealth. But government will probably abuse its use if it is used once and works.

Precious Metals Will Depose Cash from Its Temporary Throne

storms are brewing in the finacial markets. The gales have produced a few waves and troughs. I think the real storm is coming! Unfortunately I think the actions seen so far have mostly added steam to the storm! I see folks finding safe harbor or riding the waves. I see little effort in actually weakening the storm. to weaken the storm one must weaken the cause. What caused the current financial situation? Is it the same things which made life soo good for so long? was it the laziness of many? Was it ignorance of those who think they know? was it greed of those with wealth? was it greed of those who wanted the wealth? was it ignorance of truth? Was it ignorance in beliefs? Was it power abuse? Was it abuse of force? was it special intererest abuse? was it general interest abuse? I could go on A small part ofan ovious problem has been recieving enormous thought while most of the problem is ignored with little concideration of the reasons which can not be blamed on somebody else.

Banks and Consumers Are the Problem, Not Bad Assets

I think those with cash will not significantly invest in companies they think will be hurt by the coming administration. There could be some kind of rally. But the number of middle class ( those with free spending money) has droped greatly in the last 15 years. And when a country has a great middle class then the economy booms if the goods produced exceeds the goods bought. If there is greater demand than goods produced then inflationary problems exist. the greatest countries have a good balance between the two. Policies which move wealth to the few will cause more problems like we see now

The End of the Economy As We Know It?

Quite a few good questions. I am inclined to believe few people realize the serfs of the middle ages were socialistic communities. The problem came about in later years when the leaders (royalty) took greater shares of that produced causing little incentive to produce. Slavery comes from socialism and socialism requires others to produce for the good of the many. Know the difference between the carrot (Capitalism) and the stick (Socialism) Wealth is the reward for production under Capitalism. Shortage and want is the reward for Socialist. For of the two the real greed is from those who want equal goods while giving less effort because they deserve it I went off track. The problem I see is too many socially acceptable decisions and not enough capitalistic decisions. The means will cause the next crisis, Change is coming and few will like the coming results. When The crisis becomes the next opportunity then the economy will again improve.

The Chickens of Irresponsibility Come Home to Roost Under Obama's Reign

I wonder if you think multinationals could bring that money they have earned in from over seas. countries will act like the banks did if they try. And would they want to? I think if you really looked into the last 20 years of financials, you would find that most production companies have moved from finacially well off to the brink of failure. The wealth has been redistributed form the producer to the money movers. Producers have little leeway now. They need to either earn money or fail. The failures will cause shortages that will allow those who survive to continue with more earnings. But the people will have less to spend because more company failures will take place. I think history will repeat itself in that the economy will become more like the dark ages than we have seen in 200 years. The pheasants of the dark ages went into fifedoms out of need. The kings showed them relative safety. What happened was those in charge started to expect more while giving less. Socialism is where we are heading. I expect a dark ages type pheasantry is where we may be if things continue on ther current path

The Deflation Debate: Why This Time Is Different

I thinkl the problem we see today is too much wealth in the hands of the few. The middle class is the key to spreading and spending wealth Reagan was very right about the fix of too much wealth in the hands of those who purchase causing inflation. Today too much wealth is in the hands of those who do not spend. Another problem is the foriegn deficit...as long as foriegners think the dollar is safe all will be well....I think we are in the last year of that situation. Once the belief shifts adequately watch the dollar follow the course of the stock market more or less

A Capitalist Reformation

Interesting statements: Seems to me most of what you wrote about is socialism called capitalism. Capitalism is trading goods or services for money which is used to purchase goods and services. I do this . You Buy that. we are both happy. Capitalism has been decreasing over the years because fairness has intervened...I say some socialism is good. The socialism has actually become an infection of the greedy calling others greedy.

Navigating OBAMArkets

For appearnance sake... The lower the stocks go before January 20, the better his administration will look after he enters office. If it falls 50% more and then raises 100% he will look like a genius and yet the price will have changed not at all. I wonder how the statistics would look if the statistics came from the day after the democrat was elected? Naw that would give unfair evidence of what really happens