socrateazz

Sobering Stat: ARMS Index Indicates Market Is at Peak, Not Bottom

Either bias is speculation today. If you buy you are speculating that things will improve. If you sell, you are speculating the things will get worse. If you just base your decision on real data. Then the decision becomes relative to what? What will change? What has changed? Where have trends gone? And will they continue? In my eyes; Too many businesses have sold their futures for yesterdays bottom line appearances. Good economies have increasingly gone toward more questionable activities The middle class, is disappearing and will contine to dwindle. Hot air may continue to bouy the economy for the near future. But for how long?

The New Bull Market Fallacy

Your analysis seems to be good. Hope can cover up reality for awhile. How long?

Not Buying This Rally

Wise in many ways. You have pointed out many of the problems the nation faces. There is a basic ignorance as to the real cause. Cycles are given as a cause often. I say the cycles are the symptoms caused by the results of the cause. Cycles take place because of actions taken many years previous. Reagan changed a cycle where demand for goods exceeded demand. The change would have best been made ten years earlier. But at the time there appeared to be no crisis involving inflation. Change comes when things go to extremes. The current crisis has two very real causes. The first is the continual negative ballance of trade. This will continue to take wealth from the nation and put it in OPH (other peoples hands). This should have been fixed ten years ago. But other nations were convinced the US dollar was where their wealth would be safest. Most market extremes are caused more by belief than reality. The ballance of trade will correct. It will be drastic though. The other reason seems like two reasons but I think they are so closely related they actually can be concidered one. Greed and power. Not where the average person thinks it is. The greed exists in front of everybody and yet is concidered fairness by many. Power is in the hands of those who use it. Those who use it often abuse it! Ballance has been the key to American government over the years. Today's government needs a major repair job. That does not mean it needs to get bigger. It means it should accomplish its job taking fewer resources. But what is happening is a failure to accomplish much using extreme amounts of wealth. Government does not need laws few understand. A tax system based on arbitrary control and spending for arbitrary reasons will cause extreme KAOS. Government needs to keep their taxes at levels where wealth can be created and partually retained in the private sector. Government spending has exceeded that level recently. A fix will not be effective over the long haul unless government allows businesses enough earning to increase or at least retention of wealth to effectively stay in business. My take: Actual total government needs to drop by 60% from current levels and remain at such a GDP relationship for the future. Goverment is a ravenous creature devouring all it can eat while telling its food (citizens) it is helping them. Government is acting like a rancher. Keep the cattle (people) in the fence. Utilize the meat (labor ) as you desire. Expect more production while taking more from the system. Any draught or exrtreme condition will cause a problem. Taking more while giving less does not help an already serious situation. The government has put a hurricane in the barnyard. What will we have after the storm passes?

PPIP: Already Obsolete

The goal has not been to help the banks as much as make the banks look more solid. That has been achieved for the time being. Will it be enough in the end? Seems like a coverup to me. Today, it seems talk has merit and facts are cheap, how ironic!

Is Geithner's Latest Power Play Good for Bank Shareholders?

The question is: What is their job? Seems few agree... I think GM should have gotten tougher with unions years ago. But...Really what choice did management have? A three year strike would only cause the lost of good talent and major production and sales problems. Not to mention fairness standards skewed to the unions. Management was very much stuck doing what was expected by all the various groups involved. Appeasement and immediate fire fighting has been the way. Was there any choice? I say the unions are not far from killing their own cash cow...So doctor money infusement is the only way to survive. Either that or let the animal die! Should the US give diabetes, heart and lung treatment for a drug addicted autogroup..Or let them pass away and find some young vibrant producers?

Public/Private Taxpayer Pilfer Program: Social Implications of Geithner's Plan

Why would you think any folk that have never produced anything or created anything understand that what they have comes from that production? They honestly believe wealth is formed from getting it from somebody else! Would you expect anything else from Obama? Look at what he has done in his life! Has any of it had to do with creating and selling actual production? Why do you think communism always fails? The leadership always thinks things operate the way they do because others are greedy. They do not realize they gained power because of like thinkers greed. I would not be surprised if the government has been profiting by buying and selling some assets and then making statements which cause prices to move to their favor. I think this asset plan is another opportunity to help their faithful. The joy of Obamanomics is overwheming.

Will the Geithner Plan Work? Let's Hope Not!

Interesting to me most big companies in trouble seem to be headed by what I call socialist leaders. People who seem to think the situation they are in was mostly caused by something outside themselves. And not by the decisions made within the company. Most of those leaders went through education systems that have a very socialist bent. The educators tend to emphasize their social beliefs and minimize reality. To understand, Take an advanced test: Then place the questions in three categories. ! 1)Absolute fact; undeniable truth. 2) areas appearing to be truths but with disputable parts to them. 3) unprovable beliefs which schools try to convince students are absolute truths. If you really are objective and place those test questions in their real categories I think you will find the tests are mostly propaganda. Research looks for truth but education sells propaganda supported by a strange mixture of facts and beliefs.

The Common Refrain, To Our Detriment

I do not understand how people think anything that happens in the US is Capitalistic policy. Capitalistic policy is let the market decide all! Socialistic Policy is control is the best policy. Communistic policy is fair treatment for all based on the leaders beliefs. All government policies are a combination of all of those policies. Government is socialistic in nature. Programs like roads are Communistic in nature. Individuals are Capitalistic in nature. All nations need a balance of all those policies. When any nation moves too communistic or socialistic they are on their way to collapse. Any nation must have real encouragement of capitalism along with rewarding capitalism in order for the nation to flourish. The government has two roles: Supporting comunistic programs and making reasonable socialistic controls over the private sector. Any serious failure in balance will cause problems within the system. That is where we are now. You guess the outcome! What needs to change? Obamanomics will be seen as negative change.

Kovacevich, Lewis and Geithner Speak Out on the Banking Industry

Roosevelt knew as Obama does: Appearance is more important than fact! As long as people think Obama is being proactive Does it really matter if his policy is truely destructive? Hitler was very good at appearing proactive. They looked good in Germany at the time! Now they know they were mostly propaganda based. Be wary of any propaganda based leaders. Global warming believers do not realize they are wrong and will manipulate facts to fit their beliefs. They can not be wrong! After all: The ice ageists from the seventies believed they were right and kept feeding me their propaganda until evidence said the earth was warming. So many lemmings follow those great leaders until fact finally forces change! How Ironic! Over there is a wall to keep you in! That side has nurses to draw your blood! Over there is the hopeless you are supposed to take care of! Now quit trying to build another wall next to that cliff! You must sacrifice your life so more deserving leaders can thrive! The cost of progress. Or is that degress! Oh who cares as long as I have the power!!!!! LOL

The Fed and AIG Still Give the Market Troubles

Big Gorillas are easier to see but harder to kill. King Kong has been established as the size medicine needs to be administered while the monkeys need to fend for themselves. How wise!

A Scenario for a U.S. and Global Recovery, Part 2: Banks

I think financial organizations should not become too big to fail. If they are too big to fail then they should be divided into more companies. Behemoths need to be the exception not the rule. If any one company would seriously pull others down, then that company should be divided when it is healthy.. A model could easily be developed regulators could use to determine when any one company could be a serious problem initiating a company split

Unintended Consequences of Four Government Policies

The Idea of mark to market is actually good in some ways and accounting on a cost basis has many advantages. My thought is do both and average. A small downturn will not mushroom into a great problem as quickly as that which just conciders the market price but still gives some asset value if temporary inflation becomes a problem. Things are the way they are for a reason. Change usually causes other problems. Before making changes one has to really concider why things are the way they are. And what could happen as the result of that particular change. For millinea people have acted from various beliefs without concidering the consequences adequately. Some actions have improved the world. Others have appeared to improve things but instead led to disasters. I fear the current decisions may cause results no sane person wants. We will see! My idea for stimulus: Goal: more folk working, help industries survive, and help keep standard of living within acceptable range. Problem: those with money are not spending! Too many people have too little discretionary monies, and the poor have few choices to improve their lives! My stimlus will not solve any of these problems but it will help. The key is to get some monies out of the hands of those who have it and into the hands of those who need it. I believe You need healthy companys to increase jobs. To make companies healthy one needs incentives. My thought: Why don't we encourage companies to hire and keep employees with a tax incentive like take fed unemployment rate subtract 5% then multiply by hours employees work and multiply that by .10 and allow that result to be a cost deduction on any companies taxes but be counted toward that companies reported income. Many advantages are available under that situation including incentive to keep and hire workers. stronger business balance sheets and allow the strongest earning companies to hire more workers for tax advantages. I would make that permanent though. If government choises to tamper with it. You could guess what would happen to it

Why It's Time to Overhaul the Banking System

You have no real worry about the agriculture industry other than the monies the government spends on mandates like the schools complain of. Did you know most about 86% of the government farm bill help in the farm bill is food stamps and school programs? Probably had no Idea. That is welfare, Is it really wefare for the farmers? I expect most of the US will be shocked when food shortages appear. Will be interesting how a food shortage will affect people! I expect the first reaction will be policies that ultimately cause more shortages. Like action taken to blame big oil for the price increases and attempts to blame the producers who really are taking great risk to produce needed food for little return. Oh well, Wisdom is learned by experience. Beliefs seldom concider the facts. Truth is in actuality not rhetoric of the propagandized.

Psychology of the Bailouts

Blame usually is an excuse to keep folk from realizing their own contributioons to problems. If you can place blame on others then the problem is theirs and not yours. If people spend too much time placing blame, they do not have as much energy to make the changes needed. Solutions are found by concidering the past and looking for ways to overcome the problems seen. Blame gets in the way of solutions.

'The Change We Need' Is in Economic Direction

I may be wrong but I think the basic premises of the fed control of the economy is correct. The Problems I see are mostly in beliefs causing the wrong actions at the wrong time. Many forces have changed peoples perception of what is logical and what is reasonable. Some like the expansion in government has happened for milinea. I believe all goverment believes more ........ is what government is for. To leaders more money means the government can do more. There is a tipping point though. Are we there? Building projects like the piramids of Egypt or the Greek and Roman empires will cause civilizations to persist for awhile. But note they went down hill after they were built. Will it happen today? Kingdoms seemed to work in europe for centuries. Why did they fail? I really believe too much wealth went to supporting the kingdoms taking too much from the actual people of the kingdoms. Kingdoms often started as ways to centralize and help the people and before their demise became selfish, prideful, envious, and greedy bastions for the royalty. Anyhow, If too many resources go to government, expect less resources for the people. Doling money out to the people will help short term. Will it help the future?