stocker

Historical Data Disproves 'Trough P/E Multiple on Trough Earnings' Myth

The failure of woo hoo WAMU had more assets on an inflation adjusted basis than every single bank that failed during the great depression. Banks were tiny community companies back them. Now the top 5 banks hold more than 50% of the banking assets in the country. The biggest of them Citi is already a failed enterprise in my view.

On Mar 08 08:57 AM Lok Sang Ho wrote:

> I agree completely people make wrong parallels to the Great Depression.
> Then banks were failing by hundreds every year. How many banks have
> failed so far?

Dennis Gartman: Go Long Infrastructure, Short Everything Else

Another consideration you should consider is that there are 9,000,000 cars sold next year, the lowest number of homes built since the great depression and almost no commercial real estate starts. New cargo ship orders are canceled, and there is a surplus of steel rail cars and cargo containers. Local and state governments around the country cut back as they face huge budget shortfalls partly offsetting the stimulous. Supply far exceeds demand, and steel stocks drop 90%+ from their peak prices as cycicals often do during a severe recession. This would be my worse case scenario. Steel drops another 80%, while the S&P only drops 40%. This would result ina massive loss. Not saying it is going to happen but definately a possability.