Ron the Rocket

Sirius XM Releases 5-Year Guidance: Aggressive or Conservative?

Okay, this is definitely worst case scenario in these numbers. Remember that Mel said 50% of new cars NOW have SAT Radio and 50% of the purchasers of the cars end up signing up to the service. Even at a low number of 12mill cars/year, that's 3 mill subscribers. Of course, we are going to start overlapping...people buying new cars that already subscribe, but this is 3 million not even including retail purchases at Best Buy, etc.

In a year or so, when car sales are back up to 14-16milliion, that will be 3.5 to 4 million/year subscribers right there...minus say a third for people that already subscribe...easily 2.5 million/year from autos alone. So that's 10mill in 4 years...by beginning of 2013, 10mill + additional 500Kyr at BestBuy, etc = 2 mill more...

Mel, I think it's going to be more like 30 Million by early 2013. This doesn't even factor in additional gains by new technology in the next several years, etc.

That's my take on it. I think MEL is being VERY CAUTIOUS...I've owned Sat Radio for about 5 years now...first XM, then SIR...it's not going anywhere. It's fantastic. You can't listen to live CNN on your IPOD...IPOD's suck anyway...i can't even get my ipod music onto my hard drive in my JEEP. SAT RADIO is here to stay...what an amazing service to keep my sanity as the DJ "wanna be comedians" blab on...

Cheers MEL! Cheers SAT RAD!

Ron the Rocket OUT!