joshuaodonnell

Barron's Calls a Bottom

Im calling DOW 4500. Dont believe me? Watch what happens. Will bounce around a little here and there, but ultimately we are going lower. What have we done in the past?

We rallied on the ban on short selling, then the market tanked. We rallied on the stimulus, then the market tanked. Well, they will probably announce they are ending mark to market...what will happen? will rally, then the stock market will get CRUSHED and will get as low as 4500 on the DOW. Dont believe me? Watch what happens.

Believe whatever you want. Im just taking this into a historical perspective...Also everything booyahead(Cramer) has said has just been wrong. Every bottom call he's made has been WRONG. and continues to be wrong. Yet, some politicains take his que. Its amazing..................

How Will This Depression Differ from Previous Ones?

I think the best thing to do is just look at history itself. Look at the facts. Everything we say here is all theoretical, well most of it. We are seeing very similar patterns in the stock market of the 30's as we are today, w/ one huge exception:

When the great crash occured they lost 89% of stock value in one day. We haven't even come close to that. Its a much more gradual decline. Will the market go lower? History, say's it will. But, none of us know, because you don't know whats going to happen until it happens. But based on probability and overall statsistics, we are going much lower, (in my opinion). There are already many DOW companies that are trading at depressionary levels... Citigroup, AIG, BAC, WFC,...most of the financials, and some other non-financials as well.

In terms of deflaton: It will probably get much worse. The average cost of things is still high though. We will continue to see home devaluization as foreclosures continue to rise throughout the country. So, until this is solved, you can't have any type of full recovery whatsoever. I believe it is the basis of our entire economy... which, now most of the govt. owns anyway............

Problem Banks in 2008 Are Nowhere Close to 1990-91

The "problem" banks aren't the problem. The debt is the problem. Because the debt will create more and more problem banks... Thats the real problem...

lots and lots of problems....... That never really seem to have a solution. The real problem is the government. The government is creating more and more debt by borrowing "problem money" for the future. This puts huge strains on big and smaller regional banks. When you have a company like Lehman Brothers that was most of the time leveraged 60:1, you have a real problem. They defaulted on everything, and then collapsed. That is basically what happened to the government.

One Scary Unemployment Chart

ah, this is nothing. We can easily see 25% unemployment...if the auto industry fails, will easily go into double digits.... and will certaintly go up higher if the Obama stimulus does not work..which the republicans really do believe wont work...

Why is it that the republicans are completely againist this? what happens if it does work? that will make the republicans look really bad. but, if it doesn't work, Obama is finished, because there is now way they will put another trillion dollars on the table, which congress can vote on. Wont happen

Jobless Claims as Percent of Payrolls Aren't as Bad as in Previous Recessions

Ah, this is all an opinion. It doesn't matter whats going on now, it only matters what is going to happen. We will easily see 10% unemployment, even if the stimulus works. There is way too much momentum on the downside with small businesses collapsing and firing workers. Also, the banking system, being as insolvent as it is, is continuing to worsen the problem..

Bottom line: Until we can get a bottom in the housing market, the economy will continue to worsen, but since the severity of the credit problems, I believe we will still see massive layoffs, even after the housing bottom(which some people think will occur in June/July 09. The unemployment and auto industry will be an ongoing problem throughout all of 2009, no matter what happens to the housing market..

2008: Ten Unforgettable Days

Crazy year finally comes to an end..... Now we get to look forward to(instead of 2 wars, 3). Unemployment continuing to worsen, banks still not lending and widespread famine across the globe.

A depression is still on the table as long as unemployment continues to worsen.

The most memorable experience of 2008: (besides an American olymipic athlete winning more gold medals than anyone in history) would have to be the government sell out of taxpayers..... the TARP, and the autobailout that the taxpayers are paying for. It just proves to us that our own government could care less what happens to the taxpayer in America

thats pretty much it.
I love SA.com!

Preventing the Depression of 2009

No matter what happens, they need to get a grab on unemployment. If we continue losing jobs at the rate we are, then we will go into a depression, no matter what the government or the market does. If unemployment gets worse, the economy will get worse over the longer term. Dont complicate things!! Its really simple: NO JOBS= NO SPENDING= NO BUSINESSES= nothing.... bread lines....like 29'. Once we get jobs going, we get businesses going, then we can start paying back the trillions of dollars of debt. yey!

The market is not the real economy!! The real economy is jobs, health care, homes, etc.... Companies are not stocks. Stocks are not companies. People need to really understand this fully before talking..

Preventing the Depression of 2009

No matter what happens, they need to get a grab on unemployment. If we continue losing jobs at the rate we are, then we will go into a depression, no matter what the government or the market does. If unemployment gets worse, the economy will get worse over the longer term. Dont complicate things!! Its really simple: NO JOBS= NO SPENDING= NO BUSINESSES= nothing.... bread lines....like 29'. Once we get jobs going, we get businesses going, then we can start paying back the trillions of dollars of debt. yey!

The market is not the real economy!! The real economy is jobs, health care, homes, etc.... Companies are not stocks. Stocks are not companies. People need to really understand this fully before talking..