Popeye1250

Six Signs Economy Is Turning the Corner

We shouldn't be "bailing out" any banks, insurance cos or brokerages.. All this does is to keep wealthy people wealthy!
The govt. is supposed to protect "depositors" not banks.
When I start hiring again I'll be hiring a lot less people with "degrees" and more people with "common sense."
Look at what "the smart people" with "degrees" have done to our financial systems and somehow they want society as a whole to think that they're still,... "smart."
Also, we have a separation of church and state in this country.
We need to have a separation of business and state as well, it's long overdue! Those on the "left" do have a point when they say that it's "capitalism for the people and govt. socialism for big business."
All the "lobbyists" on "K" street or anywhere else should be outlawed! They can sit down at their kitchen table and write a letter to their congressman or senators just like me or anyone else!
I can't remember the last time I played golf with my congressman or senators, can you?
And we need to get o-u-t of these *outsourcing* deals disguised as "free-trade" deals. Look at the disaster called "NAFTA!" It was and is a COLLOSAL mistake!
*Our government* exists to take care of The People, not to ensure the success of business.
Perhaps we need to educate all "the smart people" with "degrees" about exactly what it is that "Capitalism" means.
We need to get "big business" O-U-T of our government!
President Eisenhower was right!

Is the U.S. Ready to Shop Again?

I'm ready to spend a bunch but not on cheap plastic junk that's made in China.
I buy "American". It can be done!
Also, we need to end these "outsourcing" deals or many of these trade deals that enable them.
People who make $40-$60 an hour buy houses, cars, furniture, hire lawyers, stockbrokers and accountants etc.
People who make $15 an hour don't buy much of anything beyond subsistance.
We have too many people making $15 an hour in the U.S.

Don't Let Bulk Shippers Sink Your Portfolio... For Now

Shipbroker, both FRO and NAT run Suezmax ships.
ALL of NAT's ships are Suezmax. About 50% I think of FRO's ships are Suezmax. Go into their sites and look at "The Fleet"
Other than that a good post!
Boy, there was a lot of negativity back in Nov of 2008!
Things seem to be picking up now in the last few days of May albeit slowly.



On 2008 Nov 11 07:38 PM Shipbroker wrote:

> In the eyes of a professional, anyone who talks about "Shippers"
> do not know what they are talking about. Folks who own ships are
> shipowners. Shippers are the people who ship cargo on the ship.<br/>
>
> The BDI is a wonderful thing but it is only a record. It is not something
> that professionals hang their hat on. Rather they are amused at how
> investor types have fallen in love with newly found index. It is
> meaningless, it only tells me what the competition got for his wares
> yesterday and how much I should ask for today.
>
> The things that matter in shipping are the volumes of cargo being
> shipped, the distance the cargo has to go (Ton/Mile) and how many
> ships are available to do this.
>
> In the mid 90's it was common knowledge in the business that there
> would be a shortage of ships, especially bulk carriers, because the
> fleet was old. According to the BDI, the sages were right, because
> the BDI went to absurb levels.
>
> Although we are at this moment in a period of lower than normal cargo
> amounts, this is not important. Tomorrow is another day. What pros
> are looking at is the age of the fleet and the addition of new ships
> coming in. There is great fear that there will be too many ships.
>
>
> Now mind you, as much as shipowners like to tell you they are experts
> at transporting cargo, they are really just as much, if not more,
> investors. Ships being the object. Right now they are adding and
> subttracting number of ships in the future and speculating wildly
> how large the fleet will end up being.
>
> As for cargo being shipped, one must remember that the world's ports
> and mines etc are running close to full capacity. So any major increase
> in cargo is not expected. What is expected is that trade will pick
> up because the credit crunch is temporary, the world is developing
> and the appetite for goods is still there, so this will get back
> to normal in less than a year.
>
> If in the next 4 years, every ship over 20-22 years of age gets scrapped,
> the fleet's carrying capacity will remain the same when the last
> ship currently on order is delivered in the summer of 2012.
>
> 18-22 years is normally considered the life span of a ship because
> after that, the investment in repairs/maintenance will not be worth
> it. That of course is a function of how much can be earned in the
> market. So, high BDI, more old ships, low BDI less old ships.
>
> Although, I have started myself picking out shipping stocks because
> there are great opportunities. But only carefully. Picks are based
> on my knowledge of the companies and how strong they really are.
> Do not let 3rd quarters fool you. Wait for the 4th quarter results
> to roll in, then see what happens.
>
> My shipping portfolio includes SSW and RCKMF because of their business
> plan. It includes TK and TNK but not FRO and NAT, because FRO and
> NAT are in the VLCC sector, whereas TK and TNK are in the much more
> stable Suezmax and Aframax sectors of the tank market.
>
> On the bulker side I am waiting for 4Q results. DRYS is out. Mr.
> Economou unloaded a Caper from his own company, Cardiff, to DRYS
> and thus onloaded a white elephant on his stock holders. - SB is
> a candidate because of their long terms contracts but only after
> I see 4Q freight marklet development and how their contract partners
> are faring.
>
> SEA (Mutual Fund) is fairly well balanced in the various sectors
> and it couid very well be agood time to buy them.
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>

Time to Get Long Black Gold? How Option Spreads Can Pay Off

Pardon me, with this "additional" 3.5 million shares that NAT put out on the market yesterday I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the shares go to the $18-$20 level as opposed to $22-$23 per share.
Dilution is dilution.

Are Shippers’ High Dividend Yields Sustainable?

NAT has no debt but they keep diluting the shares with new stock issues like they did yesterday with an additional 3.5 million shares!
Everytime they do this the stock falls back to $22-$24 per share from the mid 30's like it was yesterday.
If history is any guide it'll be down 2-3 points today (wed) and it'll do the slow slide to "$22" per share again in a month or two.
Yes, it's nice to have no debt but the share price gets diluted twice a year it seems.
I won't be a buyer until the stock falls back down into the low 20's "again."

Time to Get Long Black Gold? How Option Spreads Can Pay Off

Here we go again!
Everytime NAT puts out more shares to the public like they did yesterday at 3.5 million shares the shares get diluted and the stock price falls back down to $22-$23 per share in a month or so just like clockwork.
I'm selling my shares today (wed.) and waiting for a month or two to buy back in.
This is what, the third time they've done it in a year and a half I believe.
If the shares keep getting diluted like this twice a year how much is the *true value* of the shares? Certainly not $30 per share.

U.S. Economy Cannot Truly Recover If Policies Turn Protectionist

What's "protectionist" about using American labor and materials?
All the European countries do it! Most countries do it!
Would it be "protectionist" when China does it?
We simply cannot have govt. policies that give away the store all the time!
Most of those programs are geared to "help" "developing countries", read, third world countries in the hopes that they'll develop into "markets" someday. That kind of thinking has been going on for 40 years now and guess what, those countries are still "developing!"
The U.S. govt needs to be concerned about our country first and foremost!
Look at all those H1b visas, *everyone* knows that they're just a way for cos. to get *cheap* foreign labor! They're all applied for and taken in the first 24 hours!
We need to end those kind of things.
What if we had 500,000 lawyers comming into the U.S. from China and India each year and the "billable hour" rates started plunging?
How long do you think that would last?
But it's "ok" to do it to I.T. people and others?
Certain people tell us that we need to "compete" in this "global economy", fine, the first thing we do is *end* every single "foreign aid" program!
You don't "help" your competition in Capitalism!
Just when have we *ever* competed against other countries?
Favorable trade deals, "foreign aid", loans, immigration, that's "competition???
If we were truly "competing" in this "global economy" we'd be pounding those third world countries right back into the stone age!
You're not talking about "Capitalism" you're talking about "global socialism."

How Immigration Can Help Fix the Economy

Gee, some common sense for a change!
And I'd venture to guess that 90% of the American People agree with you!
Obama had better "change" things!
We broke the senate phone system and we can show up at our senator's and congressmen's offices with pitchforks and torches!
Our immigration laws haven't been enforced for the last 16 years under Bush and Clinton!
Since when did enforcing our immigration laws become "optional" to those idiots in Washington


On Jan 12 12:15 PM a. palmer jr. wrote:

> I have a better idea...how about hunting down all the illegal immigrants
> and visa overstayers and send them back. That will lower costs of
> hospitals, free up some law enforcement because crime will be down,
> school systems won't have to pay for their education, books, lunches,
> etc. A guarded fence will definitely help keep them from sneaking
> back in for more free goodies. Legal immigration should, only be
> not encouraged, but limited to about 1/4 of what the current amount
> is. This will ease the wearing out of our infrastructure, less crowding
> on highways, towns, etc. By the USA playing nursemaid to the rest
> of the world we have put ourselves in a world of debt. Foreign aid
> and foreign travel by every congressman who needs a vacation should
> be nearly abolished. This will take care of about 30 percent of our
> wasteful spending; we can work on the rest at our leisure.

DHT Maritime: Best Nautical Investment Since the Nina, Pinta and Santa Maria

I agree.
I think you nailed it down pretty well and I like the "worse case scenario" too instead of a rosy scenario.
I bought a thousand shares today and I'll be buying a few thousand more next week of DHT.
I also own NAT and I can't understand why they would come out with an offering of 3 M shares next week at $32.50 per share when the share price (*WAS*) $36.75 approx.
What's wrong with offering those shares "at the market?"
*Everytime they (NAT) do that the stock price retreats down to $22 - $25 or so!!!*
They're just diluting the shares!
So, I'll be a seller of NAT next week and wait for a month or two till it bottoms out *again.*
And I agree with your assesment of DHT, they're in a very good position to profit nicely under your model which is not overly optimistic at all.
Hey, if it does nothing it's nice to sit back and collect a 20% yield.
Not too many banks will pay you that these days!
Thanks for your work!
Regards, Tom Porter popeye1250@yahoo

A Fresh Look at Shipping Company Stocks

One thing I've noticed is that with gas prices down so much people are beginning to drive a lot more!
Two months or so ago when gas was around $4.00 per gallon I was out on a thurs night and it was like a ghost town out there!
So, it looks like gasoline usage that was down 11% last May is headed up again which is good for spot shipping rates.
Also, a cold winter which has already started up North.
I'm torn, in this bear market I'd *love* to see both FRO and NAT which I own go down to $10 per share and really pile on some shares at that price!
But, unfortunately (for me) that probably won't happen, people need gas and oil reccession or no.
With the high yields of these stocks why go anywhere else?
Oh, the CEO of NAT will be interviewed on CNBC friday morning, Nov 7th between 0930-1000.