Maya_

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Global Markets

The 10 year spy volume data is most interesting. Compare the volumes during this bear with those on the prior one - volume is high, very high this time round. It looks like there has been a generational shift in wealth; possibly from older folks to those younger. I do not think capitulation of this level has ever been evident since the 70's. Maybe, just maybe the buyers are now ready to hold long term. More money chasing reluctant sellers might mean more upside. I would like to see volume return to less surreal levels in a long term context - the VIX has now returned to a more sensible level in the long term basis maybe much lower volumes will soon follow.

Looking to Buy BRIC? The 'ABC's Are Better (Part II)

Wow. Spot on. Personally, I try to invest in Oz & Candada because they can deliver what China & India need. I have always avoided direct investment in China, India & Russia,simply because a safer return can be obtained by investing in their needs rather in the Countries. Unfortunately, BP has significant Russia interests so I guess I have indirectly invested in Russia - am thinking of switching to RDS. Brazil for some reason I have ventured into in a small way through an investment in Vale & I would not mind some Petrobras either - I have worked for and with Brazil in my job for a number of years and recognize that working in Brazil is difficult for a foreign company or foreigner; but Brazilian entities manage to be successful - I particularly like the management at VALE.
Being Indian, I do have some Indian investments but they amount to a very small fraction of my portfolio - I tend to chose from the DJ India Titans, avoid any companies in the Reliance ADAG group and avoid all public sector under takings - after that check valuations, hold your breath, jump. Often the payout justifies the risk!
I will certainly keep my eye open for MNC's with significant Botswana interests for the future.
As far as corruption, governance, transparency, intellectual capital is concerned; problems are widespread in all EM's. But I think about it this way -
- for every Satyam there is an Enron;
- for every Harshad Mehta there is a Bernie Madoff;
- for every corrupt government official there is a subtantial political contribution or lobbying payment (only real difference is that it is disclosed and legal - still does not make it any less a polite form of bribery);
- for every corrupt employee there is a morally bankrupt management (look at management compensation in US and you will see management stealing from shareholders; only difference is that it is disclosed and legal!).
People just tend to change the words for the old actions to give them new legitamacy when social norms change. In India, a maid was called an "Aya"; once that became an impolite word, they were called "Didi" (means elder sister). Now calling a person Didi offends some. Cynical eh!