misiosnechacz

Clear Risk of Forex Credit Crunch - Poland's Troubles Mount

He's showing black scenario.
1) some companys they,ve got problems with options but it's nothing on masive scale. Most of it is just to secure export deals becaouse from 2004 to mid 2008 all curencies were falling against zloty so they will have to pay more but they will paid for their products in USD, Euro etc. There was quite a few companys that were speculating but it will not influence market as whole thing and definitly won't kill any of the polish Banks (so far there was no bank with loss on their ballance sheet).
2) If it's about mortgages in swiss franks You are right peole will be hit hard but not as hard as You might think. Loans in swiss franks they ve got much lower intrest rate and 2 or 3 years ago goverment forced the law that when they check your credit ability how much you can take it you have to have 20% of more earnings when you take a loan in foregin currency.
3) Housing markets suffer all over the world and Poland is no exception. Hause prices are falling and they will falling for next couple years at least. But EU is pumping huge ammount of money to develop infrastructure and You know what they are sending Euro so weaker zloty actualy helps the whole thing because Poland ve got more zlotys to spend.
4) Companys are laying of people with industries releted with construction, steel etc. But it's happening everywhere. But weak zloty might stimulus export and block the import of goods.
I don't say that Poland is not going to be touched by the crisis but I think that our banks are save and dont think that Poland will fall into recesion. We will see slowdown that is much more severe than polish goverment prediced growth 1%-2% (very realistic scenario).
I don't want to be a fortune teller how WIG20 will look like in 31 december 2009 but if you are going to invest your cash long term eastern europe is the right place to be (poland, czech republic). Their currencies will get stronger in next few years both against Euro and USD with raising stock markets (long term) and bonds on much better rate than in other countries You might earn even more.
disclosure: Polish bonds, long