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p_medica

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  • Hewlett-Packard: Short The Short Squeeze [View article]
    Unbelievable, you based your entire premise on a single indicator? Return on Assets and its correlation with the price of the stock. Wow, what are they teaching these days in quantitative finance class? If I understand you correctly, HP is a short squeeze until you see what? An upturn in the ROA or is it a Stabalization of the ROA Rate of Change? You can loose big money taking this nearsided advice.
    Jun 17 11:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid names with hefty PC, server, or printer exposure, says Goldman, lowering its 2013 PC shipment forecast to -6.8% from -3.8% and - pointing at DELL's earnings - warning pockets of price aggression at OEMs could spread. Making the list are sell-rated: HPQ, LXK, and QLGC. H-P reports after the bell. [View news story]
    Michael, you were correct: Goldman was on the other side of this trade. Boy, that new Dodd/Frank bill is really holding the Investment Banks accountable for these Shenanigans!
    May 23 12:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • H-P (HPQ) is depending more than ever on receivables sales, transactions in which it sells customer invoices to third parties for an up-front fee. The WSJ's Rolfe Winkler notes receivables sales totaled $4.3B in FY12, or more than half of H-P's free cash flow for the year. The transactions both have the effect of skewing cash flow figures, and of sacrificing some cash flow in exchange for eliminating customer payment risk. H-P has responded by claiming the impact of receivables sales on FY12 cash flow was negligible. [View news story]
    You are seeing the effects of the Autonomy acquisition revenues which were not clearly ID'd by the acountants responsible for valuing the 11B acquisition.
    Jan 4 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard: Distressed Investing 101 [View article]
    The cash flow information is telling. With the Autonomy impairment write-down, the company is still carrying 34B of Goodwill on the Balance Sheet and with a stock price of 12.5, is underwater from a book value standpoint. In fact, book value with Cash included is ~ 30B, hence HP could not write off all the Goodwill in a single year even if it wanted. With Bond refinancing of ~20B on the horizon (early 2013 - look for the corporate paper rates to go up currently running at ~ 4.8% but my estimate is close to but not to exceed 6%), Meg is going to need all the free cash flow she can find to continue writing off Goodwill and PAY ON THE Debt (forget paying it down). Finally, proxy statements will be going out soon as the annual meeting is scheduled for early January. Look for the major shareowners to vote NO on current board member recommendations! I am a major shareowner and in any business, you have to clean house on occasion as the board members tend to pontificate and head nod without due diligent much too frequently.
    Nov 21 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The PC industry could lose 50M-100M units in annual sales by 2015 thanks largely to the impact of mobile devices, argues Barclays in a depressing report. Barclays, which is cutting estimates for Dell (DELL) and H-P (HPQ), forecasts PC sales will fall another 4% next year to 338M, and total just 311.5M in 2015. On the other hand, it expects tablet sales to reach 182M next year and 300M in 2016. Longbow is also downbeat, claiming checks indicate notebook orders are being cancelled; ultrabook demand is soft, and Intel and AMD are cutting prices. [View news story]
    Impact Productivity?? Hell, the #1 use for Smart Phones and Tablets is video viewing and game playing (more hours consumed on these devices than any other use). How is this productive! I wish these so called Market Analysts would look closely at the "use" catagories prior to pontificating.
    Nov 13 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dysfunctional Tech Giant You Must Avoid Now [View article]
    HPQ needs Board Member Activism to hold the idiots that voted yes on the aforementioned acquisitions accountable. The rank and file executive responsible for Business Units have done a reasonable job of managing to cost constraints set forth by the CEO and Senior Presidents. Organic growth of new product and/or services was put on the shelf as the growth strategy (echoed in Barron’s by none other then Mark Hurd) was an 80% acquisition, 15% operational improvement and 5% organic scheme. The HP employees have been sitting around on their hands as part of the 5% while the Board, CEO and Financial Underwriters have walked away with largesse bonuses from the resulting acquisitions. And the so called “synergy” that was touted as justification for the acquisition price never materialized. In fact; more than 90% of these acquisitions (Compaq was marginally successful if the Carly and Cappellas payoffs are removed) failed to or even remotely approached generating their cost of capital. It would seem the HP’s Board Members and CEO need a HBS corporate finance refresher on merger and acquisitions or held accountable for their lack of knowledge.
    Oct 24 12:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP: Once-In-A-Lifetime Opportunity Or Value Trap? [View article]
    So, Analytic value of HP is between $20 and $30 per share. HP is currently trading at 14.50 so there looks to be plenty of upside. what is your time horizon?
    Oct 11 10:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should HP Break Itself Apart? Examining UBS's Call For A Radical Restructuring [View article]
    Agree with jhser: Not only are these analysts fickle on "to spilt or not to split", they need to go back to MBA school and review debt structuring practices. GAAP rules restrict corporate divisions from swapping long-term debt between operating divisions that report segragated performance. It is not only unlikely, its rediculous to suggest HP would pool its 20B of long-term debt into PPS groups operations and "let them deal with it." Besides, Uncle Sam bailed out the Autos and the Banks - let spread the wealth Obama!!
    Oct 9 12:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett Packard: What Happens When A Good Business And Bad Management Collide [View article]
    What a bunch of whiners. Come on - get on your knees and look for that S/N! What are you thinking Roger - Should the serial number be placed on the front pannel of your unit in big, bold florescent colors! I bet most of the customers have the ability to lift the product up, but you should consider getting on a weigth training program so you can curl more than a 16oz Coors.
    Sep 18 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GM is hiring 10K IT workers as part of its plans to in-source much of its tech work. H-P (HPQ), whose EDS unit signed a $2B outsourcing deal with GM in '07, appears to be one of the big losers. H-P recently announced a leadership change and $8B goodwill write-down for its services unit, which will be hit hard by the company's layoffs. [View news story]
    Another brilliant maneuver by an HP CEO for self-gratification and recompense purposes. Great Job Marky – hope the bed rest with Jody Shilling was well worth the effort and the SEC hauls your ass down to the courtroom to make your life miserable.
    Sep 7 07:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • H-P (HPQ) has hired Microsoft (MSFT) North American chief Robert Youngjohns to be the new head of its Autonomy enterprise search/analytics software unit. Like Autonomy itself, Youngjohns hails from the U.K. He arrives shortly after H-P kicked out Autonomy founder/ex-CEO Mike Lynch in response to a stunning license revenue drop, and as H-P struggles to overhaul Autonomy's sales infrastructure in the midst of widespread defections. H-P bought Autonomy for over $10B last year. [View news story]
    Thanks Leo, you piece of c@#p for paying 22x revenue for a company one of your buddies owned and taking what we had left in the treasury and spending it! What a great growth strategy that was!! 58B of Goodwill on the balance sheet was just tooooo good!
    Sep 7 04:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Silver Making Breakout Move As Fed Prepares QE3 [View article]
    Jeb, your exuberance is overwhelming however your rational for higher prices of precious metals is somewhat void of history and logic. First, only in time of crisis (of epic proportions) or large scale natural disaster has the Fed stimulated by lowering short term rates (overnight lending) or initiated a QE program within a 6 month window of an election day. Secondly, even if the Fed succumb to political pressures, loosing and simulating in mid-September will have little to no impact on the unemployment rate by Nov. 4! In fact, there is only 1 more Dept. of Commerce unemployment report release between now and Election Day and most of the measures in the report are currently being gathered now. Finally, QE programs do not happen all at once, QE1 was a 6 month program and QE2 was 10 months, stretched to 14 months by the Fed. I doubt you will see the Fed stimulate before Nov.
    Sep 7 04:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP To Mark Hurd: Please Come Back, All Is Forgiven [View article]
    I believe there is a need to remind the group of readers that it was under Hurd's watch that pre-texting testimony occurred. That the Standard's of Business Conduct was mandated for all employees based on this testimony and was violated by the "King" himself. Also, your being kind when stating Hurd "economized talent", its more like cannibalized talent. R&D spending during Hurd's watch declined by 60% as a function of Income and also in total dollars. The fact that 50% of the company's revenue and income is now drawn from commodity based products (Printers and Computers) is a result of his near-term sided business philosophy and the earlier author is correct: Hurd's business sense is operationally based, his growth stategies for the company (which were well documented in the Forbes article circa 2007) was segated into 65% acquisition, 25% operational efficiency & and a big 10% grass roots (internally). Currently, the HP treasury has little cash left, HP debt has been downgraded by Moody's and the rash of acquisitions: 3Com, Palm, Foritify, Stratavia, Arc Sight, 3 Par - are failing returning the cost of capital or generate income growth.
    Jun 27 02:15 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HP Is About To Begin An Upward Trend [View article]
    EBITDA is changing as are the land values over the last 3 years due to incentive changes for the CEO. Hurd's Compensation was based on Return on Assets. The less Assets he had on the balance sheet the better. So he executed special order 9 to sell as many parcels of company land as possible. Further, when Leo came in, he decided to grow thru acquisition (Atonomy for 10.2B). Plenty of Good Will was placed on the balance sheet and will take 3 to 5 years to write off. The land value was leveraged against for purchases as the company treasury as little cash left on hand. Most of the parcels on the books are not in prime locations - Mark held on to the parcels that were cheaply valued.
    Jun 21 06:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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