market ace

Closing Update for Tuesday, Sept. 22: Watching Commodities and the FOMC

It is nice to report that the market is up, commodities are up and even housing prices are up, but when it is mostly the result of a fast falling dollar a little more worry should be in order here.

Just maybe our decent into a banana republic should not be seen through such rose colored glasses. The value of a country's currency is like the value of its "stock" and the US $FRN is dropping like a rock and has been for months now.

Soon most Americans and especially retirees will be paying a terrible price for this exciting ride to nowhere in the markets. Anyone not holding inflation hedges at this point will be hurt badly.The only thing that counts is the remaining purchasing power of our remaining assets as that is the only true measure of wealth. Even if the DOW hits 25,000 it does not necessarily mean anything good has happened, especially if the dollar has sunk another 50% and Bernanke has pritnted trillions more of them to force it to get there.

Just keep dividing your total net asset value by the price of gold to tell if your are truly winning or losing in this crazy new world we live in now.

Why E*Trade Is a Must Buy

In my opinion, this is the worst company on the planet! I opened accounts with them and it took weeks to deposit my checks to their bank accounts, they double charged me on trades involving tens of thousands of dollars and giant fights ensued to get my money back. They cheated me out of the free trades they advertised and offered me 3 free trades in lieu of this advertisied benefit. They also posted dividends and interest months after I closed the accounts. They even advertise getting a thousand new accounts a day. I would love to see them prove that one.

In my opinion they are crooks and should lose every customer before long. In about six weeks with them I had about 100+ e-mails and phone calls concerning problems and 3 major SEC complaints were required to finally get all of my money back.

Anyone investing in this company or trusting them with their money is crazy!!!

Today in Commodities: Waiting for a Catalyst

Interesting that you are looking for a big correction in gold and silver when in looks like the shorts are about to be hung out to dry in a major squeeze

Gold: What Professional Futures Traders Think

The only thing left that glitters is gold!

SInce 2001 Gold is up 297% and S&P down 7%. You chose which you want to bet on. The value of the dollar is down 95% since the FED took over in 1913 and down 15% since March 2009. See any problem here?

Gold is money and always has been. If you look at what an ounce of gold purchased 100 years ago and what it purchases today you will see a very consistent purchasing power pattern. That is the function of real money. The Zimbabwe dollar was on par with the US $ in 1980, but became a clear example of what an untamed printing press can do for a currency.

As the smoke from the over worked Bernanke printing presses starts to reach the nostrils of too many people they will all see the fallacy of fiat money and it will again collapse. The Chinese are seeing it clearly and will be a much bigger force in the gold market than the big US bank gold price manipulators. When the Chinese tell their people to buy gold and silver do you think they will let the price go down and look stupid?

On the other hand do not get overly excited by gold going to $10,000 an ounce or more as that just means prices of everything have also escalated 10 times. However, if you are holding gold or silver instead of $FR notes you may have a lot of reasons to celebrate.

Trash Is King: Beware Being Late to the Party

This dose of reality is badly needed and should be heeded - but

What is an investor to do for the longer term? I agree with the ride the current market and use trailing stops and I have and am doing that, but there is also a false side of the coin that may keep the whole house of cards afloat for longer than people think and then their losses in the stock market will be even more terrible, but not near as bad as what their gov't is doing under their very noses.

The falling dollar will soon crush Americans and especially retirees. In the meantime it makes US stocks and commodities look cheap to foreigners, will falsely boost corporate earnings for international companies and cause many to flee cash driving markets even higher. All of this will prop up markets and make it look like everything is wonderful even while the US dollar is dying and every US citizen will pay a big price in the end as false values are created but purchasing power actually drops.

While protecting ones self from the stock market one must also be taking great care to protect against massive "inflation" from dollar deflation. The rest of the world has lost all faith and trust in the US and will take it out on the currency. The dollar may be getting some boost now from being the new darling of the carry trade, but that too cannot last. There are also foreign forces that would like to kill the dollar and they just may get their chance as the reckless US Gov't and FED defy all logic with their current economic policies.

Beware of a crashing stock market, but more afraid of what a major devaluation of the US dollar, which could happen over night, will do.

Dollar Declines Set to Continue

It is becoming clear that the dollar is dead. Massive deficits and printing dollars to buy our own debt is a kiss of death in itself. More importantly we have lost all faith and trust from the rest of the world.

The dollar is now the currency of choice for the carry trade, because of the FED's stupid zero interest rates, and that is about all that is propping up the dollar now. When you see countries like Canada issuing bonds in US currency it is not because they think it will be increasing in value in the future.

The perceived increase in market values and commodities is mostly caused by a falling dollar. US stocks again look cheap to foreign investors and international compaies can report good earnings so everything looks womderful on the surface, but when the dollar is losing purchasing power at its current rate the citizens of this country will eventually be crushed.

When you see the change in attitude in China just in the past 30 days it is startling. They now laugh at your AMEX card and taking US currency, that they were glad to take last month, is not happening any longer. That alone is a very scary sign.

I'm not sure what economy Mr. Bernanke thinks is out of a recession when 1 in 8 mortgages are delinquent or in foreclosure and the number is headed for 1 in 5. Hopefully he will issue a playbook so we will be able to recognize the recovery from the recession over the next ten years or so.

The value of a currency is nothing but trust and perception of the country issuing it and we have screwed the rest of the world with our crooked banking and ridiculous mortgages for way too long. They have learned a valuable lesson and we will now pay the price as our curreny loses value every day..

The Recovery Will Likely Feel Like a Recession - Or Even a Depression

Amen brother - you have said it much better than the preacher that pretends to lead this country and the chior of liars that surround him in his quest for change.

Maybe we need to go back to presidents that get high on drugs instead of trillion dollar welfare packages - mostly for banks no less.

It is becoming evident that recovery now means preserving the banana republic status we are creating for ourselves without too much else bad happening in the meantime.

30-Year Bond Sends Encouraging Signal

How can you possibly try and compare these markets to the free markets of the past? With artificial manipulation of interest rates to the down side and central banks buying their own debt to push rates down, how can you think any of your analysis has any meaning in the real world?

Are you naive enough to really believe that foreign central banks are really lining up to buy US Treasury bills, when in reality they are dumping them and buying things of real value every chance they get? I'm sure it has never occured to you to you that the FED is behind the scenes buying all of these treasuries themselves even though it has been shown and proven by numerous writers. Can't you see the artificial money being pumped to the supposed registered dealers that are using the money to goose the stock market?

Just keep believeing everything is wonderful until reality sets in and you will learn a valuable lesson about govt's and intervention.

The Coming Consequences of Banking Fraud

Anyone that does not see the truth in this article has their head way up a place it does not belong. This describes modern "markets" to a tee. Anyone that wants to play in this game better have deep pockets and love losing money in the end.

Interestingly after blasting my brokerage firm about the sham of the current US stock markets and my unwillingness to play except for stragic buys with close stops, they actually responded stating that they had advisors I could contact to help with planning to "unwind" from the US markets. This seems like very valuable advice.

Jobless in August

We are caught in a giant downward spiral here with no easy answers in sight and false gov't reporting only dragging out the agony. Obviously until demand for goods and services picks up, employment cannot pick up, which is the only ultimate lift for demand to pick up. Consequently, the only way to spur demand is through lower prices and that cause other downward spiral problems.

Having the gov't try and spend and borrow our way out of this depression without focusing on job creation, but focusing on wasteful spending is certainly no answer. Saving big banks so they can lend to people and businesses that can not afford any more debt and are smart enough to avoid more debt is not going to save anyone except Wall Street fat cats and their outrageous bonuses.

There are numerous ways that the gov't could direct investment to new technologies and industry instead of dead car companies. We have natural gas coming out out ears yet no effort is being made to convert to using it for transportation and electric production - instead we get "cap and trade" and unending imported oil? The benefits from a modern computerized healthcare system would cost $120 bbl. Why is it being ignored and money wasted on un-needed airports and other pet congressional projects. In our town alone they are building an aqua facility, boxing facility and a space port. All of which the polls show no one wants???

I also note that stim money to fix streets being spent uselessly and causing detours and traffic jams that prevent people from getting to small strip malls forcing many small businesses over the edge and they are closing. This is probably a net loss to every community and just more good intentioned gov't waste.

SImply put there will be no economic recoery without decent jobs being created and it is not happening.

We need some leadership in this country if we are to move ahead - not some idiots like the czar for green jobs that is more concerned about his whacko ideas than jobs..

Hunkering Down for a Big Correction

You are probably right that a small correetion with a year end rebound may be in order as all of the stim and bailout money hits the economy and wasteful gov't spending spurs the GDP, but in the long run this can never be sustained.

There are just too many negative factors out there that can still cause total panic and collapse in a heartbeat. Less worse can only sustain a market so long and real growth has to enter to show any type of "recovery", but this too will take a very long time and never a return to the 'good old days".

I think right now most traders and investors are on a hair pin trigger with one foot out the exit door as seen on Monsay when just a rumor of a major bank failure sent the market tumbling. The gov't now restricting speculative commodities trading will also have very negative effects in the short term and in case you have not noticed a lot of investors are fleeing to gold again, which is a clear sign of major worry.

Anyone not using stops in this market is crazy.

Sure It’s Legal … But Is It Right?

The fundamental common denominator in each of these problems is immorality. Creating money out of thin air is counterfeiting and theft, no matter who does it. Bonds that can never be paid are promises that cannot be kept, and are dishonest. Lying to the people for self-glorification, and to divert attention away from actions that were negligent and destructive is immoral. A government that robs from the poor and gives to the rich is corrupt. A government that casually throws its workers to the wolves while catering to the wealthy is morally lost. And a Congress that decides, in direct rejection of the United States Constitution, that there will be two classes of citizens in America, the commoners and the elite, the serfs and the nobles, is derelict in its duty and a disgrace to its high office.

There is accumulating evidence that the Washington – Wall Street moral hazard experiment has gone disastrously wrong, and that just like any other accidental discharge of a deadly virus, the moral hazard virus is now loose and swiftly propagating throughout society. By so blatantly colluding with Wall Street, Washington has lost all moral authority, and the people now have only one place to turn: themselves. An ethic of, “If they can do it, so can I,” is spreading, as people realize that fabric of American society has been shredded and replaced by a free-for-all mentality whereby everyone must fend for oneself in order to survive.

Homeowners evicted by foreclosure trash their homes in rage on the way out the door, with an estimated 50% of such dwellings damaged. Looters and squatters destroy many of the rest, stealing copper pipes, wiring, granite counter tops and anything else of value. Dozens of Internet sites such as “youwalkaway.com” provide calculators to help homeowners decide whether or not to “strategically” default on their mortgages. Shoplifting costs retail businesses $35+ million per day, as 27 million shoplifters go on the hunt. Drug addicts who have become shoplifters say that the activity is equally as addicting as drugs, leading to a continuing cycle of theft. [3] Insurance fraud is a systemic financial risk, with 25% of fires caused by arson or suspected arson, making this the greatest cause of property damage in the United States. Even before this financial crisis, which has bankrupted millions, 10% of respondents said it was acceptable to submit a false insurance claims. [4] Medicare fraud exceeds $60 billion per year. Phony automobile and other bodily injury claims cost billions annually, and are difficult to control since it is impossible for a court to tell someone they are not in pain. [5] Each day, 175,000 phony checks are presented as payment. The cost of check fraud is estimated to exceed $50 billion annually. And on and on it goes.

It seems like a terrible way for the public to get even with gov't and Wall Street and it will destroy us all in the end, but how do you stop such moral decay?

Due for a Correction? Market Is Already Priced for Grim Future

I know people want to believe this nightmare is ending, but it is obviously just beginning. Just because the FED throws money at the big Wall Street firms and they again push speculative bubbles in their same greedy manner to prop up failing manipulated markets, should not give anyone reason for much optimism or beleif that such optimism can be sustained.

How can anyone say a share of stock is worth anything, let alone multiples of hundreds of times a companies real earnings. Most stocks do not even pay any dividends, or pathetic dividends at best, so they provide no real value. The only value they have is just like the chips used in vegas where you can bet with them and the odds are stacked aginst you. Sometimes people actually think these pieces of paper, (like FR$) have value and create wealth, but that is just a myth and it all comes down to trust and artificial values that can disappear in a heartbeat.

To even imagine an economic "recovery" that even begins to resemble the "good old days" of a few years ago takes a lot of imgination and keeping ones eyes tightly closed to prevent seeing any reality all around them. Personal, corporate and certainly gov't debts far exceed what could ever be repaid and economist somehow keep pinning hopes on creating more debt to boost a dead economy.

Some will play the markets and win, but there will always be far more losers than winners and "believing": in these markets again takes more guts than brains.

Sobering Stat: ARMS Index Indicates Market Is at Peak, Not Bottom

All of the above comments have merit and the markets are sloppy gambling halls driven by excess greed and FED money, which will all come tumbling down when reality really sinks in - BUT also rememeber tc cover your backside.

Is all of this money pouring into stocks and commodities (think especially oil here) because da boyz know the dollar is sinking like a rocjk could be seriously devalued very soon and they do not want to be caught holding US dollars.

Just a thought, when markets act so irrationally and it may nor all be because of media hype about green shoots.

Spending: The Exhausted Consumer

There is only one answer - bigger Wall Street bonsus so that can spend more.