Nikhil's Comments

10 Reasons the Equity Rally Is Over

Tue, 08 Dec 2009 18:16:28 -0500

Pathetic comment

On Dec 08 10:10 AM maverta wrote:

> rosenberg is always bearish. you would be too if you were fat and
> stupid looking like he is. imagine waking up to that face everyday.

Natural Gas Has Spiked 60% Since Labor Day. Why?

Mon, 14 Sep 2009 13:21:39 -0400

Great article, objectively looks at the market and avoids emotional analysis which so many people tend to do , due to their positions.

New ETFs to Be Launched for Platinum and Palladium

Wed, 03 Jun 2009 23:57:29 -0400

But why silver ? Its got significant (close to 50% as i recall) industrial demand too, which has been waning. Its just 'poor man's gold' notion which has been pushing it up. Also I dont think there are enough players convinced and gutsy enuf to short the precious metals space (considering where the dollar is headed), specially the cheapest precious metal silver.
But why do you think silver is better, would you play long silver/short gold (or any other precious metal) ?

On Apr 13 10:58 AM JH24 wrote:

> Sorry...I disagree Mappla...
>
> Platinum is tied incredibly to the auto sectors around the world
> and until those come back around, it will make small moves up and
> big moves back down...
>
> With the incredible amount of inflation coming down the road, the
> REAL metal to hold is Silver.
>
> Gold will move, Platinum will move, but Palladium will move more
> than both % wise.
>
> Silver will beat them all....
>
> Count on it.

Benefit from Ultra ETFs' Tracking Error

Tue, 02 Jun 2009 15:12:00 -0400

SSO suffers from the same slippage as SDS, work the maths and you would see the same underperformance.

Oil's Contango - Will the Music Stop?

Tue, 26 May 2009 16:15:32 -0400

Nice article, is there any way to play the contango too ? I mean some instruments which mirrors the difference btw say, the first and the thrid month future on a rolling basis ?

Gold/Silver Ratio Is High, But It's Been Higher

Thu, 08 Jan 2009 16:14:59 -0500

"deleveraging is process where higher prices are opprtunity for the funds and inverstors" ??? can you explain this

On Jan 08 06:18 AM Rakesh Varasia(Sr.Research Analyst) wrote:

> Ya but you miss one point which is very important and matter to discuss
> , why gold to short and why silver to long............. so my answer
> is simple is DELEVERAGING PROCESS ........ DO you know guys what
> is impact of deleveraging on gold and silver ..........deleveraging
> is process where higher prices are opprtunity for the funds and inverstors(Those
> people who bought at US$690 to US$600 level. now what is meaning
> of this the reason is simple that the people who forgot to book profit
> at higer prices and if prices are under their value can make profit
> at higer prices.... but they wont book profit in silver since silver
> is silver poor, rich everyone has reason to smile on silver.......
>
>
>
> So long term i see Silver between US$14 to US$17 , in Rs.terms it
> can touch at Rs.21200/Rs/24000/Rs.2... are my targetsssssssss..........
> so guys see you at that prices.

Why Would Anyone Buy T-Bills at 0%?

Wed, 10 Dec 2008 18:28:48 -0500

guns gold and canned food.. interesting. I like the one in the middle the most

On Dec 10 01:11 PM Socialism cannot compete! wrote:

> Note the big rise in commodities and gold of late? We're looking
> at the "big investors" readying for "The Plunge of All Plunges" perhaps?
> Pulling everything outta stocks and into gold & Treasuries? Personally...I'm
> stocking up on guns, gold, & canned goods! Civil unrest ahead
> when it all comes down...and there are both economic and political
> events on the near horizon that will trigger it all. Scary but exciting
> -- real freedom may finally be on the horizon again.

Why Would Anyone Buy T-Bills at 0%?

Wed, 10 Dec 2008 18:27:40 -0500

a good question indeed, i think gold is a good answer. i am not a gold bug and have started looking at it recently. but this is precisely the reason why people hide in gold, where do they find a store of value. if others think the same they would come to gold later so some like to move in early - and there is a self fulfillinf prohecy. other substitutes: foreign currencies: banks can fail anywhere, and all major countries are facing downward pressrure, treasuries are ruled out, money market funds are suffering, real estate: i dare not touch, food: (perishable: i cant eat that fast; non-perishable, i doubt a pension fund manager would like 10 tonnes of sugar in his office), commodities - yes a good place , especially if you buy the long term story , in the short term one can def bleed there, what else.. nothing much .. do feel free to add to the list.

On Dec 10 11:42 AM Smarty_Pants wrote:

> Q: "Why Would Anyone Buy T-Bills at 0%?"
>
> A: Because you can't fit $100 Million under your mattress.
>
> OK, kidding aside, that's a very good question. The very good follow-up
> question would be "Where else can they put it?"
>
> Before anyone blurts out 'cash' please remember that any huge amount
> of money is difficult to convert to currency and if placed in a money
> market fund is probably going to be parked in commercial paper or
> right back into those treasuries.
>
> What's the short list of safe places to park large amounts of money
> these days where the real return isn't negative or where the risk
> isn't "too high"?
>
> It's a real head scratcher.

Is It Time to Buy Gold?

Fri, 05 Dec 2008 15:32:03 -0500

Gold is considered a hedge against inflation primarily since it did well in the 1970s inflationary time and since it didn't do well in disinflationary (mind you not deflationary) 1980s people extrapolate that gold would not do well in deflationary times. I read a very interesting paper which talks about golds behaviour in deflationary times (there have been 7 of those since 1800s). The one in 1818 is not documented well, so omitting it, in the rest of the deflationary times gold mostly (5 out of 6 times) outperformed paper currency (irrespective of whether we were in a fixed or floating rate exchange regime). The critical factor in determining golds performance is the credit quality of the issuer of the paper currency, if that deteriorates people tend to choose gold as a hoarding vehicle over paper currency.

Am not a gold bug, in fact have started studying the market recently but tell me something, even if inflation doesn't show up sometime soon, all the measures that the gov is taking to tackle the deflation are directly/indirectly going to cause the devaluation of the dollar (even the gov would like a gradual devaluation since that would work against deflation) and hence will be good for gold. Hence I think the conventional wisdom that gold would do well 'only' in an inflationary environment is flawed, a deflationary environment has been really good for gold.

Is It Time to Buy Gold?

Fri, 05 Dec 2008 15:28:15 -0500

CLH, could you please go back to 1930s and see what happend to the dollar, it was devalued against gold to tackle deflation.

On Dec 05 08:27 AM CLH wrote:

> The best article I have read on "should I buy gold". We are in the
> worst deflation since 1930s and the dollar is soaring, however most
> think gold will save them. Dumb dumb. Keep your money in dollars
> not gold.

The American Crisis and the Case for an Inflationary Depression

Wed, 03 Dec 2008 10:35:59 -0500

i think you should read thru this.. www.federalreserve.gov...

there would be deflationary pressures in the short term but with a fiat currency system it can be taken care of easily.. and chances are one could overdo the fight against deflation..

On Dec 03 08:42 AM CLH wrote:

> You are delusionary. There is no possible way to make a deflation
> into inflation by magic. Print money? Not possible because no one
> will borrow it.
>
> This is a deflation (like Japan had) which is caused by the elimination
> of debt which causes the disappearance of money.

The American Crisis and the Case for an Inflationary Depression

Wed, 03 Dec 2008 09:51:22 -0500

nice article.. though dow at 3300 is too extreme for my apetite.. not that its impossible.. i tried accessing your fund www.gothamfund.org/.. doesnt work ?

Defining Government Expenditure vs. Investment

Tue, 02 Dec 2008 16:04:06 -0500

nice article

Gold: The Next Reserve Currency Player

Sun, 30 Nov 2008 23:45:58 -0500

Why is GLD an end game scam ? And why do you think gold stocks will outperform gold? I agree they are supposed to be a leveraged play to gold but compare GDM (gold miners index) vs GLD (gold etf) on google finance or bloomberg and you willl see gold has clearily outperformed the stocks.

On Nov 30 09:37 AM relmor wrote:

> Dont buy the GLD. Its an end game scam. When a rush of investors
> ever demand there gold, they will be in for quite a surprise. Also
> could crash any day because of that. Physical gold cant crash. Gold
> stocks will outperform gold for a while anyway, as the charts are
> dipicting.

Merger Arbitrage: Sound Strategy for a Bear Market

Sat, 29 Nov 2008 13:36:00 -0500

What adv does GDL offer over an investor selecting merger arb names on his own and also choosing diff levels of agression for diff deals ? Interesting thing you pointed out, I didnt know about GDL earlier..

On Nov 27 08:19 AM bsharvy wrote:

> You can also play merger arbitrage through GDL. But, I'm not sure
> how much opportunity there is when there's no credit in the world.

Gold In Backwardation? Not So Fast ..

Fri, 28 Nov 2008 10:30:28 -0500

Prof Lewis talks about gold being in backwardation whereas this article by hardassetinvestor very cleary discerns that not being the case. Where do see gold being in backwardation ?

I agree dollar weakness could imply (as it has historically) positve movement of gold prices, but when will the dollar start weakening is anybody's guess. So far all the arguments about flight to safety seem to be holding up and $ has been rising steadliy since July (see DXY index ) And infact in the short term most of the financial analysts expect this trend to continue (I am not saying they will be correct) and that makes timing an entry in gold tougher.

On Nov 26 11:29 PM User 307894 wrote:

> Pay attention to professor Lewis at minyanville.com/
>
> Read this article on Gold potentially hitting 1200 this year and
> 4000 to 5000 next year. These guys have been damn accurate on predicting
> these last two years.
>
> www.minyanville.com/ar...
>
>
> Buy Gold NOW!!!!!!!!

Gold In Backwardation? Not So Fast ..

Fri, 28 Nov 2008 09:56:27 -0500

Shouldnt the net rate one earns by borrowing and selling it be LIBOR - GOFO = 1.4 - (-0.08) = 1.48 and not 1.32 as you calculated, (assuming I invest the cash proceeds from selling gold, and get Libor on that cash deposit)? Please confirm

And I infer that there are also two opposing forces on gold prices:
1. Low gold forward rates putting downward pressure: Implying that there are institutions willing to lend gold and there is easy availability.
2. Historical -ve fwd rates implying a possible upmove: though I dont think this is a strong point, since there can be lots of external factors affecting gold price. In sep 99 gold didnt rally. It went from 300 to 325 in the short term (oct 99) but ended the year at 288. Secondly in Mar 01 again there was an immediate rally and infact gold moved up more when Spx moved down in those recessionary days.

Hence I dont whether to read this as a +ve or -ve for the gold prices? Though I might lean towards -ve pressure on the prices in the short term since I think the first point mentioned above is more logical.

Nucor Corporation: Dividend Stock Analysis

Thu, 20 Nov 2008 10:09:15 -0500

never say neverr again, FCX , a darling of many was at 127 and is now trading at 18 bucks, US steel is down from 196 to 24. In this environment its not just about how well you run the company when the demand dries up you have to cut production and wait and nobody saw the metal price crashing the way they did, everyone is catching up on cutting production, so < 20 is a possibility you cant rule out. Adn agreed its diversified, in times of panic everythin falls and correlation tends to 1 in all asset classes, so diversification benefits are reduced. Can you give facts , numbers why you think it cant go under 20.

On Nov 03 09:51 PM Tbeau2 wrote:

> Nucor is the most diversified and best ran steel company i the US.
> You will never see it fall under $20. Your knowledge of The steel
> industry is obviously very poor.