Jim Bob Jones

What's the Fair Value for the Dow Jones Industrial Average?

So, let's all hold long term and give Wall street another chance to drain our piggy? I do'nt think so! Trade short term , follow the trend and protect your wealth unlike the so called knowledgeable banks and brokers.


On Nov 01 07:01 AM apppro wrote:

> What happened this week is just another and perhaps best/final case
> into why we must stop this short-term option trader/traitor mentality
> & trading. I’ll be the first to admit that maybe the DOW and
> S&P have as some have complained, “Gone too far in too short
> a period of time!” Without going back to my original argument that
> they’re basing that moronic statement on a level we should have NEVER
> been at in the 1st place, let’s just say that maybe the markets have
> gone a little higher then maybe their actual worth is based on. As
> to whether the DOW or other indices are fairly valued, I give your
> opinion above worth noting.
>
> For me I take a far longer view. We’ve taken out all the added fluff
> that they say was added with all that leverage since 2004, and actually
> we’re even back to 1999 levels. Fair? Doesn’t sound fair to me, but
> that’s what we allowed to be done.
>
> Just look at this past week’s chart of JPM Chase.
>
> finance.yahoo.com/echa...;range=5d;indicator=vo...
>
>
> Monday and Tuesday were ok and non-events on no news. On Wednesday
> the entire market sold off at the open and never recovered. The news
> again was really a non-event, but some media pundits & traders/traitors
> brought back that ‘double deep’ crappola and fear spread throughout.
> Thursday reality set back in when GREAT GDP and just ok employment
> #’s came out.. the markets recovered, but those traders/traitors
> couldn’t let it go. CNBS had a parade of naysayer pundits on the
> show Friday morning and when basically so-so spending and income
> numbers came out at 8:30 am (These numbers were exactly as expected
> and should have been a non-event.) the short-term option traders/traitors
> had worked everybody up into a sell-off mode and things never looked
> back. 250 points down on the DOW and major levels breached. It was
> a pure disgrace. They tried to blame it on the dollar, on the consumer,
> on anything they could grab a hold of; but when it comes down to
> it, the sell-off was a well orchestrated, end-of-the-month options
> traders/traitors manipulated disaster.
>
> You may ask, “Why should I care? I’m not in the market or I own mutual
> funds, why should this matter to me?” It matters because you may
> be one of those lucky people who still has a job, or one of those
> still trying to find one... all these swings and angst are not healthy.
> They make everyone so full of fear and uncertainty that no one can
> muster up the desire to spend, invest, invent, inspire, etc. And
> don’t make the mistake of thinking that CEO’s of big companies are
> any different. I told you before, you keep bashing someone over the
> head over and over; sooner or later they will break! This is especially
> true of small businesses, the major driver of employment in the U.S.
> Would YOU spend thousands or go into debt to start a new business
> if every 5-minutes someone else is telling you that everything will
> crash in the next 10-minutes? I don’t think so!
>
> Whether you’re a Republican or Democratic, whether you’re a capitalist
> or socialist, whether you’re a ying or a yang; we MUST ALL start
> to agree upon ONE THING and that is this short-term mentality and
> trading MUST END!
>
> STOP THE INSANITY NOW!
>
> Revised Tax Rules:
>
> 1. Capital gains under <6 months - 55% tax on capital gains
> 2. Capital gains 6 > 12 months - 45% tax on capital gains
> 3. Capital gains 1 > 2 years - 35% tax on capital gains
> 4. Capital gains 2 > 5 years - 18% tax on capital gains
> 5. Capital gains 5+ years - 5% tax on capital gains
> 6. Most critical of all — Institute a capital gains tax of 55% on
> ALL short sales not directly tied to a long buy by a licensed hedge
> fund. I'm tired of paying for the pure shorts 3rd vacation home.

Three Investment Themes: Retail, Energy and Materials

I believe we'll have DOW 6000 in 15 days. Just because we have an Obama pick for treasury means little at this time. The traders ran it up Friday evening but they will run it down again Monday. No real fundamentals have changed on the upside so I see no good reason to play untill the ball bounces. Take your pick, gold or mattress. My money says gold.