daniel3582

Surprise! No bank failures Friday night. Tally for the year holds at 98.

Great news! Look for a 150 point rally on the Dow Monday....

Ten Reasons for an Imminent Stock Market Crash

Amen, brother. I do believe we are soon entering a corrective wave down... and many will jump short. But this correction is going to low 90's only. Once again, shorts will underestimate the power of the bull. We are up again until December-January at the earliest!! That will end a TD D-Wave 8 part sequence sequence on weekly bars that began in late 2007 and has been hitting its targets like clockwork.

SPX 584 by next fall.


On Sep 30 03:24 AM Alan Young wrote:

> I have been reading articles almost indistinguishable from this one
> since the second or third week of March. That hasn't been very useful,
> and it isn't useful now.

Despite Dedicated ETFs, No Reliable Way to Play Natural Gas

The only way to play natural gas through UNG is to call the bottom to the month, and buy then. Case in point:

Oil is currently trading at $70/barrel. USO is at $35/share. Compare that to January of this year: $40 barrel. The only way you would have participated in the doubling of oil price is if you had bought in at the exact bottom when USO briefly dropped to $22/ share in March.

Those who bought USO at the beginning of the recovery period... November, December, January... they have gotten completely shafted, and they were only a few months early. Imagine what will happen to you if you start accumulating natural gas by buying UNG, and we don't move off of the bottom for another three months? Six months? A year?

Conclusion: if you don't possess the skill to time a market to the month or the week, then go to Vegas. At least you get free drinks while you lose your money.

How to Trade Natural Gas, Crude Oil and Gold ETF Funds

Here's a tip on how to trade commodity ETFs... don't. The people making the most profits on these ETFs are commodities futures traders... who are taking your money. Also, the ETF administrators... who are taking your money.

Get a brokerage that allows you to buy the futures outright.

5 Reasons to Avoid the Gold Rush

I love the "cover my butt if I'm wrong" end of the article... what a joke.

UNG Trading 101

If you absolutely must own natural gas, take a few minutes and sign up for a new account at Think or Swim. You can trade the futures without the UNG premium or the contango effect. TOS is one of many low cost ways to get into the futures market.

Buying something simply because it is low is never a good reason to own something. It seems like that is what many are doing.

Why the Fuss over Natural Gas ETF?

The way to make money in this ETF is the same way to make money in USO... find an intermediate term top, and buy puts only. You not only get to enjoy the profits from the natural weakness, but you get an added boost because of the contango effect. It's like exfoliating your skin with a sand blaster.

The last time oil was at $70 barrel, USO was $60. Now it's $36. The same thing is going to happen to UNG. People buying in now at $9/share are not going to enjoy a profit of $18/share if NG futures double. The people who are going to get the maximum profit are those who buy in at the exact bottom.

This probably goes without saying, but if you are a chartist, do not do your chart magic on UNG. Do it on natural gas futures. That will help you buy in at a profitable point.

How to Trade Using Game Theory

"The ultimate Black Swan, bond implosion"

You are wrong. By its very definition, a Black Swan is something that is so far outside of the realm of possibility, that it doesn't even cross someone's mind as a threat. Obviously, it doesn't take a very big imagination to forsee the bond market imploding. Thus, by your calling it a "possible Black Swan" it forever cannot be one.

Your misuse of the word weakens its meaning.

Recession Is Easing - Check Your Underwear

I was reading elsewhere that "they" were looking for alternate ways to measure GDP, such as a correlation between GDP and light fixtures seen in satellite imaging.

I'm sure we can find a way to measure GDP using underwear purchases...

Closing Update for Wednesday, September 2: Slide Stretches to Day 4

I have been following the overnight action in crude futures... Further weakness, as well as continued weakness on the e-Mini SP500 contract. If crude continues to slide tomorrow, I would be careful.

The probability of registering a DeMark perfection buy on the crude contract tomorrow is almost 100%. It will, unless the contract closes above $69.57 tomorrow. Highly unlikely.

The perfection buy is registered as a result of price being unable to break through the previous TDST price support that was set at the last big rally upward.

Keep in mind, we will have renewed strength at the open... hourly charts are showing a buy as well - however, since we are in a daily bar downtrend I would not use this information for more than a day trade opportunity.

The True Cost of the Home Buyer Tax Credit

In theory, you are correct... however, there are not enough homes being sold to cause anything more than an statistically insignificant rise, especially considering that the credit is (in all reality) fairly small.


On Sep 02 06:55 PM Celcius wrote:

> Has anyone considered the inflationary impact to housing prices with
> the $8,000 incentive? House prices should rise as the incentive artificially
> inflates demand; consequently, putting additional wealth into the
> pocket of the seller. Thus the incentive benefits the seller and
> burdens the tax payer. Once the incentive ends, housing demand should
> decline and cause a reduction in home prices. And potentially put
> these new home owners upside down in their home loans, since they
> purchased the property at an artificially inflated price.
>
> It looks more like a bailout for speculators.

Natural Gas ETF Premium Reaches 20%: Time to Unload?

The question shouldn't be: is it time to unload... the question should be, "What in the world would have ever prompted you to go long?" Fundamentals are terrible. There are also no valid technical buy signals on any time frame, including my specialty, DeMark's signals.

If you really want to go long in NG, open a futures account with Think or Swim. Forget this ETF stuff.

Dell: Signs of Insider Trading

What a childish comment.


On Aug 28 12:39 PM Max Profit wrote:

> Karl...you must have been short on Dell! Don't be so sore at Dell
> for delivering GOOD news for a change just because you were betting
> the other side.
>
> This has happened before with other companies when there had been
> signs that pre-leased news (which was supposed to be bound by a an
> embargo period) had started to leak-out. It becomes the moral responsibility
> of a company to immediately make the news public to eliminate the
> exact funny business that you are blaming Dell for. You should be
> looking for the agencies that broke the embargo!

The eye-popping run-ups of some companies considered essentially bankrupt can only mean one thing: Already, speculation's back. Possibly signaling the end of the up cycle.

Markets do not go down because of smart sellers... they go down because there is a lack of buyers. For big funds and institutional investors, buying decisions are cumulative and thus purchases occur over days and weeks, whereas selling decisions happen (for the most part) much more quickly because it is a single decision at one point in time.

That is why this rally has been so persistent.

Blackberry’s 26 Advantages over iPhone

On Aug 10 05:42 AM Robert Martorana wrote:

>
> Good summary of Blackberry's overlooked advantages. As you noted,
> availability on every carrier leads to lower voice/data services,
> and to unique offerings such as T-Mobile's free WiFi.
>
> In technology, however, success breeds success: The iPhone's popularity
> has generated thousands of free apps, making the software just as
> important as the hardware.
>
> It pays to be a media darling.

Yes, those 60,000 apps make the iPhone better than a BB. I don't know what I would do without Mafia Wars, Vampire Wars, Fart, iDaft, Toobz, Virtual Ski, iBeer, etc. etc. etc.

Quantity is what the iPhone has. Quality is what BB has.

BTW, I am currently an iPhone user. May or may not renew when my contract is up.