LE

The Hun's Top 12 Value Buys

I 2nd the refiners idea. The refiners are shutting down plants, scheduling major turnarounds, nothing new going up (with the exception, I think, of Marathon's Garyville), and rationalizing where they can (WNR's shutting down one plant and boosting utilization at a neighboring plant). Basic microeconomics at play: suppliers, faced with low prices, are willing to produce less. At the same time that the economy is improving, production will be tapering off, voila higher prices. Meanwhile, new capacity overseas will feed increasing overseas demand (Chinese buying more cars now than in US, what will they fill them with?). Perhaps we won't see the same profits as 2006-2008, but today's crackspreads cannot persist either. IMO the refiners are undervalued.
Disc: Long 500 SUN at $7, 20,000 WNR at $5.46avg

The Hun's Top 12 Value Buys

Conn's is a bargain now; even if they had to write off half their receivables and interests in securitizations (which would be extreme), they would still be at a significant discount to book. I believe the AG lawsuit is just a "clean up your act" sort of warning, and Conn's will just get a slap on the wrist. The AG doesn't want to put them out of business, and put all those people out of work. This is an overreaction, and there is a *huge* short position to boot.
Disc: long 14,500 sh @ $7.26avg

Complete List of Brazilian ADRs

AFAIK Sadia (SDA) is no longer traded.

Manitowoc Offers Investors Growth at a Discount

I answered my own question of Mar 7 and bought (a lot) around 2.75, and then sold around Aug 24 for 7.10 (can't complain). I was happy to see it then go down to low 6's, but then was dismayed when it shot up to 9 last week. I keep track of my "lost gains from too-early sales" and its one of my worst decisions after APWR and ASH. So, why did I sell?
1. I was troubled somewhat that the company's balance sheet has 600M negative equity after removing goodwill (but leaving intangibles), while market cap got to 1B. I like to buy stocks that trade at a discount to tangible book.
2. Some (not a lot) of concern about debt levels.
3. A feeling that they sold a whole LOT of cranes in 2005-2008, and that many of those cranes are idle, so that when the economy picks up, it will be the idle cranes put back to work, and not a lot of sales of new. On the food-service side, a feeling that a lot of restaurants will have gone out of business and produce a steady supply of cheap used food-service equipment.

But what I am focusing on now is what kind of earnings can this company expect in 2011? Investors will probably start to formulate those expectations over the next 2Q, so by mid-2010 MTW's price will likely build in expectations for 2011. If $2+ EPS is be reasonably expected for 2011, then this is probably a $20 stock by mid-2010.

Comments or opinions?

Disclosure: no MTW position at present


On Mar 07 06:47 AM LE wrote:

> so is MTW a good buy, now that it's at 2.50?

There Are No Good Choices for the Fed

What do you think is the primary impetus (or impetuses) for the 2nd dip of the double dip that you think we face?

Manitowoc Offers Investors Growth at a Discount

so is MTW a good buy, now that it's at 2.50?

Is Norilsk Really Selling Its SWC Stake?

To the author: as much as I find your posts interesting to read (and only time will tell whether they were prescient), the sheer volume of your postings makes one wonder what your real motivation is.