LE

Manitowoc Offers Investors Growth at a Discount

I answered my own question of Mar 7 and bought (a lot) around 2.75, and then sold around Aug 24 for 7.10 (can't complain). I was happy to see it then go down to low 6's, but then was dismayed when it shot up to 9 last week. I keep track of my "lost gains from too-early sales" and its one of my worst decisions after APWR and ASH. So, why did I sell?
1. I was troubled somewhat that the company's balance sheet has 600M negative equity after removing goodwill (but leaving intangibles), while market cap got to 1B. I like to buy stocks that trade at a discount to tangible book.
2. Some (not a lot) of concern about debt levels.
3. A feeling that they sold a whole LOT of cranes in 2005-2008, and that many of those cranes are idle, so that when the economy picks up, it will be the idle cranes put back to work, and not a lot of sales of new. On the food-service side, a feeling that a lot of restaurants will have gone out of business and produce a steady supply of cheap used food-service equipment.

But what I am focusing on now is what kind of earnings can this company expect in 2011? Investors will probably start to formulate those expectations over the next 2Q, so by mid-2010 MTW's price will likely build in expectations for 2011. If $2+ EPS is be reasonably expected for 2011, then this is probably a $20 stock by mid-2010.

Comments or opinions?

Disclosure: no MTW position at present


On Mar 07 06:47 AM LE wrote:

> so is MTW a good buy, now that it's at 2.50?

Manitowoc Offers Investors Growth at a Discount

so is MTW a good buy, now that it's at 2.50?