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marketquant

marketquant
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  • Record Speculation On Crude [View article]
    I'd think that the 'radicals' funding the 'complete-radicals' would try to make a buck to pay for their mischief. They'd certainly not put on a position through commercial accounts! They'd open some spec account in London or Hong Kong and trade there.
    Aug 6 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Record Speculation On Crude [View article]
    The terrorist stuff that's been mentioned on the news over this weekend. Shutting the embassies down and so forth.
    Aug 5 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Record Speculation On Crude [View article]
    I wonder if the "speculators" are the same folks that are responsible for the "chatter" being heard by our intelligence groups?!?!
    Aug 5 04:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 'Real' Goods On The Latest Durable Goods Data [View article]
    You should read Gene Epstein's "Economic Beat" column in Barron's this week.
    Jul 29 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Record Speculation On Crude [View article]
    The 4 prior peaks on your chart show:
    1) the price went UP for a while, before a big correction
    2) the price went sideways for a little while, before a big correction
    3) the price was already halfway down into a correction, and did not go much further down
    4) the price chopped sideways and a little lower, without any significant correction

    Those priors do not seem to make a coherent case for a trade.

    I'd guess that most traders would have taken a loss on #1 (i.e. given up), made money on #2, and netted very little on both #3 and #4.
    Jul 25 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Gasoline Update: Biggest Increases Since Early February [View article]
    Is that gasoline going up at more than 8% annually (compounded)? for over 13 years??? That would be doubling about every 9 years.

    The "transportation fuel" part of CPI would move from ~5.5% to ~11% with another doubling, no?

    Efficiency cannot offset that level of movement. Something will break before the next doubling.
    Jul 16 11:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Oil Has Proven Resilient [View article]
    > BlackRock iShares Global Energy ETF (IXC).

    How about you guys creating an oil/natgas energy ETF that is weighted by reserve life?
    Jul 8 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Interest Squeeze Warning: VMware Insider Trading Signals Upward Price Potential [View article]
    Look, VMW has 22.3 million more shares issued than 3 years ago, even as EMC has bought 14 million over that time.
    Jun 7 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Interest Squeeze Warning: VMware Insider Trading Signals Upward Price Potential [View article]
    Statements quoted directly from EMC's two most recent SEC filed 10-K reports:

    "Additionally, in 2012, 2011 and 2010, cash used to purchase 3.4 million, 4.6 million and 6.0 million shares of VMware common stock was $290.3, $400.0 and $399.2, respectively."

    "In 2012, 2011 and 2010, VMware spent $467.5, $526.2 and $338.5 to repurchase 5.1 million, 6.0 million and 4.9 million shares of its common stock, respectively."

    ...BUT ALSO...

    "EMC’s interest in VMware was approximately 80% at both December 31, 2012 and 2011."

    "EMC’s interest in VMware was approximately 80% at both December 31, 2011 and 2010."

    So while EMC and VMWare are buying, "somebody" must be selling because the stock is down at a 3 year low.
    Jun 6 10:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    You can just turn on the ads for the websites that you regularly use, and leave all the one-time/seldom sites turned off -- just to reduce the constant tracking. Humans have a innate aversion to being watched.
    May 28 09:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    Oh yeah, off topic: if you are still messing with browsers, and use Chrome now, then definitely get the AdBlock app from Google's Chrome web store. It's like a speed boost for you whole computer.

    It will shock you how much websites are stuffed with garbage, and once eliminated, will load a lot faster.
    May 28 07:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency: Time To Abandon Ship? [View article]
    Weren't there some complaints last quarter that NLY wasn't leveraged enough to support their dividend? -- with the general whining being that they'd have to cut it. But with this MBS selloff, now NLY can look to lever the better yields at some point.
    May 28 03:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    > Earnings are harder and harder to quantify clearly.

    Further on that point, a blurb in today's WSJ says that 2012 free cash flow by the 1,000 largest public companies was DOWN 14% from 2011, to $565B.

    Free cash flow margin was about 5% in 2012, versus about 6% in 2011 -- while the S&P500 was up 14% in 2012.

    It just goes to show again that the market is all about supply and demand for stocks, and not really about valuations at all.
    May 28 09:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is The Bubble? [View article]
    > Using $100 as an estimate for 2013 earnings for the whole S&P500

    As I recall, S&P once said that actual S&P500 earnings are typically about 1/3 lower than reported 'operating earnings', due to "one-time adjustments" -- essentially there is a continuous stream of "one-time adjustments" for the market as a whole -- which, if that was the correct figure, amounts to a fairly significant earnings adjustment that investors need to make.
    May 27 08:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Natural Gas: Last Month's Rally Review And Near-Term Outlook [View article]
    Gigem77,
    What do you think of the notion that lots of gas can go into storage because there is a large demand for it (i.e. a grab for cheap gas for later deliver)? -- while the short-term traders may interpret the very same data as a relative lack of demand for it.
    May 23 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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