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gca1

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  • High-Risk Small Cap Biotech Keryx Pharma Has Become Overvalued [View article]
    No one seems to be concerned that the price to sales ratio is 196. PSR is an important metric in determining a company's valuation and that is extremely high even for a biotech stock. I am not concerned about the insider sales, but I am concerned about the PSR. This is why stops are important. No position in KERX
    Apr 2 07:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Biotech Sell Off Is Largely Indiscriminate And The Best Stocks Are Not Over-Valued [View article]
    As back-up to your point about the importance of the price/sales ratio, the book, "What Works on Wall Street," which provides and in-depth analysis of the market noted on page 118, "Low price-to-sales ratios beat the market more than any other value ratio and do so more consistently. Low PSR stocks from both the All Stocks and Large Stocks groups beat the universes in every decade."

    Therefore, I believe your analysis and conclusion that price to sales is important and that many biotech stocks are not in a bubble price mode is accurate. Thanks for your analysis. I am long biotech, especially firms with revenues, increasing earnings and low P/S ratios.
    Apr 1 09:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On National Western Life [View article]
    I have owned NWLI for some time. It's a terrific investment regardless of what is happening in the market.
    Mar 26 07:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cantel Medical: Segment Strength Is Driving The Stock [View article]
    Looks interesting, certainly worth further investigation. Thanks for the article.
    Mar 19 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Thermo Fisher A Decent Long-Term Opportunity [View article]
    This is a terrific growth company with an outstanding track record and analysts' support.
    Mar 15 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • By All Criteria That Matter To Me, Coloplast Is The Ideal Stock [View article]
    Good article and sound strategy. I also like the links you provided. Have you considered TMO for your portfolio? Interesting company with terrific track record.
    Mar 15 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • New Stocks Make Most Attractive/Dangerous Lists For March [View article]
    This seems like more hype for their service than a meaningful SA article. Perhaps the SA editors should be more diligent in their editing.
    Mar 15 09:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cimatron - Entering The 3-D Printing Software Market With Record Growth And Trailing P/E Of 16 [View article]
    Take a look at PTC, also a 3D software provider. 3D software is the place to be, the 3D companies are way overvalued. In this environment, software is a better investment. It's like selling picks, pans and shovels to the gold miners in 1849. The guys that made the most money were not mining for gold.
    Mar 13 09:24 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs That Can Outperform The S&P 500 [View article]
    10 bp on a $10,000 investment is $10, while 65 bp on a $10,000 is $65. When you compare the absolute returns, the $55 difference in fees is nothing. Over the past two years FPX is up 69% while VO is up 40%. 29% on $10,000 is $2900.00. FPX looks like a much more profitable investment. While fees are important, performance is far more valuable.
    Mar 13 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Can't Replace Steve Jobs - But It Must Try [View article]
    In my opinion, Tim Cook is enduring the same challenges that Jeff Immelt faced when he took over for Jack Welch. Jack was a terrific CEO who dramatically improved GE's returns. Prior to Jack, GE was referred to as a GNP company, simply matching US economic growth. Jack turned GE into a growth company and the street fell in love with Jack. He was charismatic and became a real icon of American business. The stock price soared while Jack was CEO and as a result GE was considerably over valued when Jack retired. While Immelt is a terrific manager (just like Cook, handpicked by the CEO), GE's stock price came down through no fault of Jeff Immelt. Over time, Jeff has delivered solid returns for GE, although not as spectacular as Jack. It's important to note that Jack stared from a lower base.

    The identical situation exists at Apple. Tim took over from a CEO that the "street" loved. Steve Jobs brought APPL from the brink of bankruptcy to one of the most successful companies in US history. Earnings growth and the stock price reached incredible heights. We can only speculate what APPL would look like today if Steve was still alive. Like Jeff Immelt, Tim inherited a company with a rich market valuation, and followed an iconic CEO. He has done an excellent job of managing the company and improving the returns. Cook is a far better manager, although not the innovator that Steve Jobs was. Many of Steve's key people have remained at APPL, a tribute to Cook and his management style.

    Will Tim Cook launch new products that will dramatically move the stock price of APPL? It's impossible to say, but I am a big believer that terrific managers deliver outstanding performance over time, and I think Tim qualifies.
    Mar 12 09:30 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celgene, Jazz, And Risk-Reward In The Biotech Industry [View article]
    Thanks for sharing. Interesting that of your top 12 biotech's, the Baker Brothers (the best managers in biotech in my opinion) own 6. In my opinion, their ownership speaks to the validity of your analysis.
    Mar 11 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Emerging Market To Buy [View article]
    Do you have an ETF that you recommend?
    Mar 10 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ETFs That Can Outperform The S&P 500 [View article]
    Take a look at GURU and FPX. They also outperform the S&P.
    Mar 10 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • DelMar Pharmaceuticals: Following The Former CEO Of Celgene On His Fight Against Brain Cancer [View article]
    The risks you mention in your article include the following:
    -illiquidity-this is merely a challenge of getting the news out to investors. Quite frankly having the former CEO of Celgene on board and someone who has managed and sold two companies for substantial sums should attract people who understand the importance of outstanding management. They seem to do a less than outstanding job in the PR area, although the corporate presentation is good.
    -One drug-this is always a risk, but if it also means that they are totally focused on this product. More products would mean more spending and I would rather see them focus on what appears to be a superior product than dilute their efforts and spending over products that aren't as attractive.
    -Financing-If the former CEO of Celgene can't raise money, I would be amazed. If the test results continue to be positive, money should not be a problem.
    -Competition-this is the only risks that concerns me. The good news is that DMPI has a real head start on others and the test results are impressive. If I was a large well financed competitor, I would seriously consider an acquisition of DMPI.

    I think DMPI is very attractive from a risk reward standpoint. This is the kind of stock that could be a ten bagger almost overnight. It won't be easy, but they have a real shot. I am also a big fan of Zacks when it comes to biotech. If they like DMPI and think it can triple, I am in. LONG and strong DMPI
    Mar 8 08:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Quarterly Valuation Of Norfolk Southern [View article]
    Thanks for the analysis. I wish I owned 20 more stocks just like NSC.
    Mar 7 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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