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Financial Market Fears Should Continue to Support Gold

If we look at the price of gold from 1800 until 2009 we see that during times of economic crisis gold has doubled in value. For the first 130 years, 1800-1932 gold traded between $19.00 and $27.00. During most of this time it traded in the low $20's. Then in 1933, The Great Depression hit and gold jumped to $34 an oz, an increase of 70%. During the next 40 year period gold traded between $34 and $44. Then in 1972 the price of gold jumped to $70. The crisis of 1980, another volatile period where interest rates soared, gold climbed to $850. After the crisis ended, gold dropped into the $399-$400 range. Gold began to move again as the tech bubble exploded. In 2002 it jumped from $294 to $416 in "03. In 2007 it reached $730 and has continued to climb. The historic path is not a linear progression, it is full of volatility. Price moves have been dramatic when they occur. However, The trend is clear, during periods of economic crisis, the price of gold can increase rapidly and dramatically. Since we are in one of the most extreme periods in history, it is only logical that gold prices will soar as people seek safety and avoid stocks. If we use the past as a guide it is reasonable to believe that in the near future gold will trade for at least $1,200 per oz. Depending on the extent of this economic crisis and with history as a guide, gold could reach $2,000 per oz. If Buffet is right and we experience runaway inflation, gold could go even higher. This will be a rough ride, but the ride will be worth it.

Short Squeeze in Silver - How to Profit

I agree, silver will outperform. Reversion to the mean is a powerful force. I like your choice of stocks. Other silver stocks to consider are Argentix AGXM, Fresnillo FRPF, Hecla HL, Mines Management MGN, and Silver corp SVM.

Jeffrey Saut: Hedging Positions in Unprecedented Times

I am tired of hearing that we are in a "bottoming process." That's Wall Street speak for I have no idea what is going on or when it will end. Frankly, I am really angry that we have been screwed by the rating agencies like Moody's and S&P who rated mortgages triple A when they knew they were junk, left unprotected by the bill that Clinton and Greenspan passed that allowed this rape of America to go on, failed by a government that has wasted three years addressing the housing market, concerned about bailout programs that will keep our children and grandchildren in debt for years to come, and a Senate that adds "pork" to the bail out bill and then call it their finest hour. Saving the automobile companies is crazy. If they don't know how to run a business, they should go away. It's called the law of survival of the fittest, not survival of the incompetents. We are in a "humpty dumpty" type disaster and I question whether all of the king's horses and men can put America back together again. Hopefully, Barrack can get things on track because Bush can't even spell recession. We live in a great country, but we have been led by idiots and incompetents posing as geniuses.

ATP Oil & Gas: Both Value and Momentum

I agree with your analysis. ATP had 2008 earnings per share of $3.43/share and cash flow of $13.17/share. While 2008 was a banner year for most oil and gas companies, the company is well positioned for a turnaround in the market. The company recently reported that proved and probable reserves PV-10(based upon three year strip pricing) were $4.7 billion while long-term debt was $1.2 billion or approximately four times debt.

The stock is cheap now, but with gas at $7.25, which some folks believe is a reasonable target, the company is very undervalued.

Will Gold Reach $5000 an Ounce?

If we were to have runaway inflation in the US (on the order of 20% or higher), then I believe that we will see gold prices go well beyond $2000 per oz. We have only to look at oil's move from $10 per bbl to $140 per bbl to $35 per bbl to see how volatile commodity prices really are. Some of the Juniors saw their stock prices sink 80% or more last year. These same juniors are up more than 80% this year.

The question is not how high gold can go, but what is a sustainable price for gold two or three years from now. The answer will be driven by fundamentals, inflation and emotion. Unfortunately no one can predict inflation and emotion.

Markets Will Hit More Lows Before They Bottom

Someone in the new administration needs to establish criteria as to whic firms/states will be saved. This will be the most difficult decision the President Elect will face. He will be pressured by lobbyists and politicians to save everyone. Unfortunately, the more money the government prints, the worse the outcome might be. Once we reach the tipping point, the dollar will decline in value and commodities will soar. Therefore the government needs to be very conservative in printing more money, or we might face the deepest recession we have ever seen. Remember, there were those who thought the Titanic couldn't sink.