sculptor

Friday's Jump: Sucker's Rally

I don't trust the dollar, but its the best currency to trade in lately, I keep in coal, oil, gold, that where wealth can be stored and optioned out for 5% -10%profit per month... I will short treasuries in 09 , Retail? LOL Real Estate? LOL

The only growth I see is in infrastucture plays and alt energy which is a great double play on both energy rising in cost, and new stim infrastructure spending.

Gaza War: Expect a Spike in Oil, Gold

You say "Higher oil prices will be the death knell for the recent modest rally in global stock markets and the impact of higher energy costs "

I partially agree, but certain sectors will do great on higher oil, My coal stocks, my solar, wind, geothermal, are flying high. The secret to the economy is energy. High energy is a "cost" to drag consumer spending, yes, but it "spurs" other spending. The psyche of the economy will never be the same after $147bbl oil, and learning about peak oil issues,

I think that to suceed in the comming decade, we should forget about dollar valuation, and only consider energy valuation, oil as currency also electricity(coal)....t... about it, it where food comes from( i calorie food - 10 calories fossle fuel), where metals and materials come from(energy the rent ore rom the earth and smelt), how goods are shipped back and forth in our global efficient markets. I personally value everything (including gold) as to its value in oil bbls or btu's expended/gained. once you do that you know how to price most commodities and alot of stocks in this market.

Is China About to Break Out?

DXD is the obvious ETF to play tommorrow if you expect a 1000 pt drop. It can counteract the drop (DXD RISES AS DOW PLUMETS)....actually I think its the kind of fuel that exacerbates big expected drops, making them steeper and more violent. Its like a big agreed to in advance move, everyone knows it , sees a nasty unemployment figure coming, and buys double short to fuel it and make it worse, thus profiting more from their self fulfiling stock drop prophecy.

TBS International Limited Q3 2008 Earnings Call Transcript

POSITIVE! Seems earning are good and growing, debt is mangeable and obligation will all be met, TBSi is big but flexible and seems well mananged as is reinforced by this communication.

I think TBSI is one of the gems in shipping..no so for lots of other hipping lines, there are a lot foundering in the tough times now and ahead. TBSI will sail on through

Eight Week Analysis of Global Coal Prices and Energy Commodity Funds

I don't get it the Stowe index, upon which this KOL is based is flat at 1541 in usd and up in euros.....is there that much panic selling? is the world planning for no electricity durring the recession? Appalachian coal is up from $50 ton heading to $75, coal gen plants are coming on line 10 per month world wide.....I just don't get it

I be buyin dis mornin KOL and DRYS dig dat coal and ship it bfore the lights go out

Five Ways to Profit from China's Stimulus Plan

you say:
"more than $100 billion is earmarked for railroads, a seemingly 19th century priority at the beginning of the 21st"

are you kidding me! what century are you living? building rail is the smartest most efficient thing 21st century China could do...way better than buying buicks for 1.6 billion people like we do in the USA....or shipping everything by truck cross country...thats S-T-U-P-I-D, wasteful of resources. USA should take a page from China's playbook, or do you expect 40 dollar oil for the rest of the 21st century....build rail now while steel and energy are cheap and jobs stimulus is necessary

On Nov 12 02:27 PM James Wilson wrote:

> Well I was fooled, pardon me while I remove my foot .

Don't Let Bulk Shippers Sink Your Portfolio... For Now

(MY COMMENT BELOW)

On Nov 10 11:30 AM MILESCFA wrote:

> I don't know much fundamentally about shippers, but the bullish comments
> here are a negative contrarian signal. Obviously not everyone has
> thrown in the towel yet, so I am hesitant to invest.
>
> Further, comments about ALL the bad news already being priced in
> seems premature. How do you know? Forget the "E" in PE; academic
> studies show Wall Street analysts underestimate on the upside and
> overestimate on the downside. In other words, "E" goes down faster
> than WS analysts anticipate. These stocks could get a low cheaper,
> especially where there is heavy debt.
>
> I've bought a small position in TBSI around $9, but had I done it
> the first time it was $9 (2005), I would have lost 40% at one point.
> How many people hold on to those type of losses? Some, but many eventually
> "throw in the towel". What if I had waited to $18? Well, sure I would
> have missed the first double, BUT I still would have experienced
> a quadruple (the same ratios exist on, say, DRYS). SO you can wait.
>
>
> Also, I'm writing calls against my TBSI as a way to produce additional
> income. If it gets called away, fine - the return would be 20% annualized.
> If it doesn't, I'll keep selling calls. And I can keep doing this
> UNTIL a bottom seems a higher probability. (TBSI doesn't pay a dividend,
> but you could do this with DRYS, which pays a "realistic" dividend....)
>
>
> Lastly, buying any stock for "unrealistic dividends" is a losers
> game. Trust me, I've played it often (and finally learned). Unrealistic
> dividends GET CUT. STOCKS GAP DOWN when dividends get cut. Like I
> said earlier, I don't know a lot about shippers fundamentals, but
> I would almost be willing to guess that you buy them when dividends
> STINK (?). THAT is when fundamentals are truly crappy (and bottoming).
______________MY COMMENT BELOW____________

You my friend are so very very correct! If this is not a bottom it is close, first one must figure if the company is solvent and will survive, then sell calls each month for 5%, 8%, someimes 10% income each month. Either you get the stock at a reduced price or pocket the option premium, or, you sold it as a profit. win win or win

The up-down-up-down saw tooth market allows you to sell the option as its time value and market position erodes and sell another option at higher value or better positioned strike price.

I also bought TBSI at 9$, a few weeks ago, I have bought and sold covered call options until my cost of the stock is now $6.86, I just sold Dec7.50 strike call for $1.50, so on Dec22, I have either 40% profit in less than a quarter, or the stock is mine at the new low cost of $5.36. This is a great way to manuver this market in everything...even GLD, which can't go bankrupt. The choppier and more volitile the stock the better, it makes for richer premiums. You just give up huge profits on the tremendous upside swings. In CHK I made 47% on my money in 6 weeks instead of 85% in two days....thats OK, I felt safer, and my profit rate is 500% annualized.

Look I am very new at this, I am a sculptor, not a trader...the way I see it this is like shifting pieces on a chess board, you just constantly adjust the coast basis of your stock lower and lower and then can sell richer and richer in-the-money calls. if your stock gets sold you win, if you own the stock way lower, you are well positioned to sell call options at even lower valuation than others who own it at a higher price. The only way you can lose is if TBSI goes belly up, so look at debt and book value and truth in balance sheet reporting (remember Enron) forget dividends for now but they are perhaps a little bonus. right now in this market, this is the safer surer way to win 80% of your trades and end up with a basket of good stocks in hand when the next bull ralley occurs 5 or 6 years from now.

Another good idea is to keep diversified globally, stick to essential necessity comodity transport energy etc and park profits in gold or commodity holdings because one can win high #s in currency, but end up with a pile of Zimbabway bucks if the world wide print presses keep humming.

billhopen.com