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Oskar1995

Oskar1995
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  • It's real. That's the word (video) from MGM CEO Jim Murren on the chances that online poker will become legal in the U.S. He says Internet gaming will pass in 2012, turning an illegal multi-billion dollar business into a legal one. He counts MGM as one of the firms that will prosper from the coming boom. Other interesting poker bets: BYD, PTEK, BPTY.PK, WYNN[View news story]
    Not sure why you would tack PTEK into the "interesting poker bets". They make poker hardware for live playing (I've played them on cruise ships in the past). This isn't a company that would benefit from the possibility of online poker being completely legal in the US. In fact this potentially harms their ability to generate interest in their poker tables. The tables are great for live games without requiring chips or a dealer.
    Jan 6 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Doesn’t Sirius React to Positive News? [View article]
    Feel_it

    Its only one of many pieces of the puzzle. I don't use it as a primary valuation tool, I merely look at it from the stand point of many value investors. Its going to be a very volatile number going forward as the company begins to turn a more consistent profit. At the end of the day if I knew what the street was going to do I would try to channel trade the hell out of this stock because its going to bounce between .90 and 1.10 for awhile. Happy Trading!
    Aug 29 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Doesn’t Sirius React to Positive News? [View article]
    Brandon,

    I agree with the overall sentiment of the article. Over the past few quarters SIRI has been able to come out and announce higher subscriber growth, free cash flow, and net income than anticipated. During that same time the stock has managed to shed about 15-20% of its value. I'm curious about the many reports that allege stock manipulation yet really offer no valid proof it is occurring. When I bought back into SIRI at 25c a share my original thought was a price around $2. After getting to $1.15 and selling about half of my stake I am starting to formulate that $1 is a reasonable valuation given the current state of the company. Over the past 9 months the company has managed roughly 2c per share in earnings. I think that is great news for a company that lost so much money for so long, but does it really warrant the company trading at 40-50x TTM earnings? Another "basic" metric to look at is the price to book. Currently at 20.84 this is a company with a market cap of 3.8bn and only 180mn of net equity. Yes, that is a significant improvement over the negative 800mn of net equity back in 2007 but still means the company may be trading at a "reasonable" price. I am a HUGE support of Sirius XM. I have 4 active subscriptions between cars and portable radios. I think the product offers something you cant find anywhere else, and the monthly fee is reasonable. I am, and will continue to be an investor in the stock for the foreseeable future. I do not believe this company has a debt problem as future obligations will be able to be retired earlier than anticipated due to the company's earlier foray into free cash flow. I do think that the current stock price offers a "reasonable" valuation as the earnings and book multiples are not compelling to value investors. Given two more quarters of solid earnings and free cash flow as the PE creeps closer to 20-30x and the price to book gets closer to 7-12x, then we can start talking about the next steps.

    Brandon, I also wanted to point out in your article you mention a short ETF that targeted a profit of 200% per day. I believe that is a misrepresentation. In reading the link the UltraShort Russell has a goal of -200% the return of the index. If the index loses $1 the goal of the ETF is to gain $2. Likewise if the index gains $4 the goal of the ETF is to lose $8. I felt that your article tried to paint the picture the entire fund attempts to double its money each day.

    Again, I am a huge fan and supporter of Sirius XM and I have enjoyed your articles over the past couple of years.
    Aug 29 10:17 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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