M.R. Henderson's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/295815/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/156502-the-specter-of-excess-capacity?source=feed#comment-633604 633604
I would disagree with the deflation argument in that it is likely there will be inflation in some sectors (like food) while there is deflation in others, like electronics. This deflation may have no solution beyond liquidation and monetary expansion we are seeing. ]]> Mon, 17 Aug 2009 15:42:51 -0400
I would disagree with the deflation argument in that it is likely there will be inflation in some sectors (like food) while there is deflation in others, like electronics. This deflation may have no solution beyond liquidation and monetary expansion we are seeing. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/148008-yet-another-huge-economic-number-coming-out-of-china-hard-to-believe?source=feed#comment-588305 588305
As for those looking to invest in this incredibly volatile and opaque market, more people are getting sick here, as could be expected with no regulation. And while the stimulus has pushed up the stock market, a number of medical suppliers have been red-flagged, pushing down their prices even while hospitals are being build across the country. A basket of flagged hospital suppliers could deliver a nice return.

A note to boot: along with money and relationships, health care has become a very important gift between business men, like gifts of Wisconsin ginseng, or reclusive qi gong doctors who can heal anything, medicine has become the preferred medium of Chinese business bribes.]]> Tue, 14 Jul 2009 19:29:10 -0400
As for those looking to invest in this incredibly volatile and opaque market, more people are getting sick here, as could be expected with no regulation. And while the stimulus has pushed up the stock market, a number of medical suppliers have been red-flagged, pushing down their prices even while hospitals are being build across the country. A basket of flagged hospital suppliers could deliver a nice return.

A note to boot: along with money and relationships, health care has become a very important gift between business men, like gifts of Wisconsin ginseng, or reclusive qi gong doctors who can heal anything, medicine has become the preferred medium of Chinese business bribes.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/147963-china-s-migrant-floating-population?source=feed#comment-588291 588291 Tue, 14 Jul 2009 19:02:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/148321-summers-new-model-details-contradictions-and-odd-assumptions?source=feed#comment-586606 586606
as for Summers... for investors, the most important thing he has said is that the economu will likely get worse.


On Jul 12 03:29 PM derryl wrote:

> Simon wrote,
> "Summers has commendably switched some of his rhetoric, so now he
> emphasizes nonfinancial technology development – presumably in the
> private sector – as the road to sustainable growth. And he rightly
> contrasts this with the financial engineering that brought us to
> this point. But does his model really offer the most plausible or
> appealing path from here to there?"
>
> Technologies can improve efficiency and productivity in the physical
> economy, but our problems at root are not physical. They are monetary.
> All of the workers, productive facilities and raw resources are still
> there ready to go to work producing goods and services. But nobody
> can do anything because everybody has too much monetary debt.
>
> Money and the economy are 2 separate systems. The best way to see
> this is to look at a bank balance sheet compared to a non-bank balance
> sheet. On a bank balance sheet your account balance--your money--is
> their liability. On a bank balance sheet your loan--your debt--is
> their asset. Bank assets and liabilities are the opposite of non-bank
> assets and liabilities.
>
> Banks alone have the right to create money. If the economy creates
> money it is called 'counterfeit'. You can produce all the goods
> and services you like but unless somebody has money to pay you for
> them you can never repay your money debt to the bank. You cannot
> solve a monetary problem with economic solutions. The solution must
> be monetary.]]> Mon, 13 Jul 2009 19:19:01 -0400
as for Summers... for investors, the most important thing he has said is that the economu will likely get worse.


On Jul 12 03:29 PM derryl wrote:

> Simon wrote,
> "Summers has commendably switched some of his rhetoric, so now he
> emphasizes nonfinancial technology development – presumably in the
> private sector – as the road to sustainable growth. And he rightly
> contrasts this with the financial engineering that brought us to
> this point. But does his model really offer the most plausible or
> appealing path from here to there?"
>
> Technologies can improve efficiency and productivity in the physical
> economy, but our problems at root are not physical. They are monetary.
> All of the workers, productive facilities and raw resources are still
> there ready to go to work producing goods and services. But nobody
> can do anything because everybody has too much monetary debt.
>
> Money and the economy are 2 separate systems. The best way to see
> this is to look at a bank balance sheet compared to a non-bank balance
> sheet. On a bank balance sheet your account balance--your money--is
> their liability. On a bank balance sheet your loan--your debt--is
> their asset. Bank assets and liabilities are the opposite of non-bank
> assets and liabilities.
>
> Banks alone have the right to create money. If the economy creates
> money it is called 'counterfeit'. You can produce all the goods
> and services you like but unless somebody has money to pay you for
> them you can never repay your money debt to the bank. You cannot
> solve a monetary problem with economic solutions. The solution must
> be monetary.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/139787-gm-to-file-or-not-to-file-that-is-the-question?source=feed#comment-527926 527926 Tue, 02 Jun 2009 10:02:02 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/138074-krugman-to-china-go-green-or-pay-the-price?source=feed#comment-507777 507777
I'm reminded of an essay that detailed how the Chinese might diplomatically outflank global protectionism (and specifically a US consumption tax) making use of "green" arguments. To level the playing field, as it were, I leave the link below.

sinocircle.wordpress.c.../]]> Sun, 17 May 2009 22:25:54 -0400
I'm reminded of an essay that detailed how the Chinese might diplomatically outflank global protectionism (and specifically a US consumption tax) making use of "green" arguments. To level the playing field, as it were, I leave the link below.

sinocircle.wordpress.c.../]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/138074-krugman-to-china-go-green-or-pay-the-price?source=feed#comment-507743 507743
However the world's current views will remain in history, the argument that the U.S. wiped out the native americans and the British used child labor should not be an indignant explanation for the destruction of cultures and the exploiting of childhood in 2009. I believe this goes for pollution, too. Not to mention the scale on which industry is now working. That said, of course the name of the game is push and pull, talk loud, talk soft, but it is also a strategy of moves within moves.

I would note a slyness to Krugman's actions in the face of a nation that uses diplomatic tactics not unlike a five year old throws temper tantrums.]]> Sun, 17 May 2009 21:37:48 -0400
However the world's current views will remain in history, the argument that the U.S. wiped out the native americans and the British used child labor should not be an indignant explanation for the destruction of cultures and the exploiting of childhood in 2009. I believe this goes for pollution, too. Not to mention the scale on which industry is now working. That said, of course the name of the game is push and pull, talk loud, talk soft, but it is also a strategy of moves within moves.

I would note a slyness to Krugman's actions in the face of a nation that uses diplomatic tactics not unlike a five year old throws temper tantrums.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/137621-china-medicine-drops-despite-improved-q1?source=feed#comment-505989 505989
Are their relationships in the right place? Anyone well connected on the board, children of former premieres?

Accounts receiveable declined 25%. Is this solely due to the government lowering prices? If this company must purchase and import everything it auctions over the internet, what is the longest period for inventory turnover? Have import barriers ever blocked these products' historically, due to political spats?

Most importantly, how many internet drug auction points of entry are there into the Chinese market? Does Alibaba have a presence here? This is something that if abused could lead to widespread closure.



]]> Fri, 15 May 2009 19:32:20 -0400
Are their relationships in the right place? Anyone well connected on the board, children of former premieres?

Accounts receiveable declined 25%. Is this solely due to the government lowering prices? If this company must purchase and import everything it auctions over the internet, what is the longest period for inventory turnover? Have import barriers ever blocked these products' historically, due to political spats?

Most importantly, how many internet drug auction points of entry are there into the Chinese market? Does Alibaba have a presence here? This is something that if abused could lead to widespread closure.



]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133301-death-of-the-asian-development-model-exporters-chasing-a-failing-strategy?source=feed#comment-480224 480224
But if demand from the world for China's goods does not come back to a certain level, if as Soros and others suspect, we are at a paradigm shift, and savings rates around the world increase, then China will need to rapidly increase long term employment, possibly through health and other public safety initiatives to help control things at a simmer for awhile. However, the Chinese consumer, fed by Hollywood, may need little stimulus to increasingly recycle its earnings, the Chinese multi-child boomers (1970-1981) are now coming into peak profit earning age. They do not save like their parents, indeed they spend their parents savings. ]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 22:20:44 -0400
But if demand from the world for China's goods does not come back to a certain level, if as Soros and others suspect, we are at a paradigm shift, and savings rates around the world increase, then China will need to rapidly increase long term employment, possibly through health and other public safety initiatives to help control things at a simmer for awhile. However, the Chinese consumer, fed by Hollywood, may need little stimulus to increasingly recycle its earnings, the Chinese multi-child boomers (1970-1981) are now coming into peak profit earning age. They do not save like their parents, indeed they spend their parents savings. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/119623-why-are-companies-hesitant-to-cut-dividends?source=feed#comment-480120 480120
who could mention a stock that has cut dividends and exec pay?]]> Mon, 27 Apr 2009 20:06:27 -0400
who could mention a stock that has cut dividends and exec pay?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/133198-the-death-of-the-asian-development-model?source=feed#comment-478110 478110 Sun, 26 Apr 2009 15:02:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/132297-china-investor-update?source=feed#comment-473269 473269

On Apr 22 10:44 AM CautiousInvestor wrote:

> Chinese corporations and the state owned sovereign wealth fund are
> striking keen deals across the globe and and are securing long-term
> access to needed resources at bargain prices.
>
> The Chinese have what nobody else has at the moment: cash. This gives
> them tremendous leverage as does their willingness to strike deals
> with countries that have strained relationships with the US, e.g.
> Venezuela.
>
> They appear to be focusing upon oil and minerals, both essential
> to the Chinese economy. In the literature there is a debate of sorts
> whether these deals will expand supplies or simply give China secured
> access at the expense of other buyers such as the US, Europe and
> India.
>
> However it unfolds, China is doing whats best for China..........and
> I wish the US would follow its example.
>
> ]]> Wed, 22 Apr 2009 17:00:17 -0400

On Apr 22 10:44 AM CautiousInvestor wrote:

> Chinese corporations and the state owned sovereign wealth fund are
> striking keen deals across the globe and and are securing long-term
> access to needed resources at bargain prices.
>
> The Chinese have what nobody else has at the moment: cash. This gives
> them tremendous leverage as does their willingness to strike deals
> with countries that have strained relationships with the US, e.g.
> Venezuela.
>
> They appear to be focusing upon oil and minerals, both essential
> to the Chinese economy. In the literature there is a debate of sorts
> whether these deals will expand supplies or simply give China secured
> access at the expense of other buyers such as the US, Europe and
> India.
>
> However it unfolds, China is doing whats best for China..........and
> I wish the US would follow its example.
>
> ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132297-china-investor-update?source=feed#comment-473252 473252 sinocircle.wordpress.c...) has a comment I found interesting, that even if Chinese lending is being fraudulently diverted into dead mortgages, this will serve the purpose of shoring up demand in the near term.

Also, an article in the WSJ (online.wsj.com/article...) suggests Chinese bank regulators may retroactively ask banks to reappraise their short term loans, which have been leaking into stocks. If this happens, in the next few days and weeks there may be quite a bit of selling of Chinese stocks as these short term loans are repaid or reallocated out of domestic equities.

With exports still contracting - falling 17% in march - this is not yet bottoming. FXP, anyone? ]]> Wed, 22 Apr 2009 16:47:12 -0400 sinocircle.wordpress.c...) has a comment I found interesting, that even if Chinese lending is being fraudulently diverted into dead mortgages, this will serve the purpose of shoring up demand in the near term.

Also, an article in the WSJ (online.wsj.com/article...) suggests Chinese bank regulators may retroactively ask banks to reappraise their short term loans, which have been leaking into stocks. If this happens, in the next few days and weeks there may be quite a bit of selling of Chinese stocks as these short term loans are repaid or reallocated out of domestic equities.

With exports still contracting - falling 17% in march - this is not yet bottoming. FXP, anyone? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131610-china-s-stimulus-effect-bounce-or-recovery?source=feed#comment-471705 471705

On Apr 20 01:14 PM huangthomas wrote:

> The impact of the current world financial crisis on China is mainly
> due to plummeting export to developed countries. The external demand
> is beyond Chinese control and it takes time to whip up domestic demand
> and consumption. Since export accounts for 20 to 30% of GDP growth,
> the GDP growth drops from official goal of 8% to 6 - 7% range is
> to be expected. Q1, 2009 GDP growth of 6.1% is still a healthy and
> respectable number. It always takes time for the society to adjust
> to a new situation. In a time like this, higher expectation is unrealistic.
>
>
> GDP number does very little to the unemployed, low-skilled migrant
> workers. There are 20 to 25 million of them. Chinese government carried
> out a series of social welfare programs, such as subsidy and financing
> for purchase of electric appliance, water heater, air-conditioner,
> bike, motor bikes.....etc. These benefits are only for the farm
> land residents to make them happy while waiting for the economy to
> recover.]]> Tue, 21 Apr 2009 16:28:42 -0400

On Apr 20 01:14 PM huangthomas wrote:

> The impact of the current world financial crisis on China is mainly
> due to plummeting export to developed countries. The external demand
> is beyond Chinese control and it takes time to whip up domestic demand
> and consumption. Since export accounts for 20 to 30% of GDP growth,
> the GDP growth drops from official goal of 8% to 6 - 7% range is
> to be expected. Q1, 2009 GDP growth of 6.1% is still a healthy and
> respectable number. It always takes time for the society to adjust
> to a new situation. In a time like this, higher expectation is unrealistic.
>
>
> GDP number does very little to the unemployed, low-skilled migrant
> workers. There are 20 to 25 million of them. Chinese government carried
> out a series of social welfare programs, such as subsidy and financing
> for purchase of electric appliance, water heater, air-conditioner,
> bike, motor bikes.....etc. These benefits are only for the farm
> land residents to make them happy while waiting for the economy to
> recover.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130373-some-preliminary-thoughts-on-the-new-face-of-demand?source=feed#comment-458989 458989
on the Chinese: keeping the yuan low while calling for no trade barriers seems to work pretty well. and if the IMF hammered out some kind of U.N. reserve currency, why do you write it just does not work? Unless someone stops them? Except no one stops them...]]> Fri, 10 Apr 2009 12:08:37 -0400
on the Chinese: keeping the yuan low while calling for no trade barriers seems to work pretty well. and if the IMF hammered out some kind of U.N. reserve currency, why do you write it just does not work? Unless someone stops them? Except no one stops them...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/130446-cramer-s-mad-money-wells-fargo-changes-the-game-4-909?source=feed#comment-458585 458585 Fri, 10 Apr 2009 06:45:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128358-as-history-repeats-itself-time-to-buy-gold-and-silver?source=feed#comment-445431 445431 Mon, 30 Mar 2009 13:54:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/128022-china-why-it-can-t-be-a-global-leader?source=feed#comment-445353 445353
economists have been running china, and it shows. unfortunately, they have continued to hold all the money in government - in state owned banks - holding back domestic consumption, creativity, innovation. the lack of domestic economy is now china's greatest weakness, and what it should aggressively seek to unleash. there is latent creativity here but it is focused on unproductive measures due to the lack of laws, police, and general stability. this is not japan. this is a country all its own, with many cultures interacting now, creating mini-melting pots all over the country... but which is going to have a very hard year, i believe, when the tail end of consumer drop off catches up.

and this is natural and good, and it will hopefully force the government to unleash the incredible entrepreneurial spirit and hunger for shopping that exists here. ]]> Mon, 30 Mar 2009 13:03:07 -0400
economists have been running china, and it shows. unfortunately, they have continued to hold all the money in government - in state owned banks - holding back domestic consumption, creativity, innovation. the lack of domestic economy is now china's greatest weakness, and what it should aggressively seek to unleash. there is latent creativity here but it is focused on unproductive measures due to the lack of laws, police, and general stability. this is not japan. this is a country all its own, with many cultures interacting now, creating mini-melting pots all over the country... but which is going to have a very hard year, i believe, when the tail end of consumer drop off catches up.

and this is natural and good, and it will hopefully force the government to unleash the incredible entrepreneurial spirit and hunger for shopping that exists here. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118169-collapsing-global-trade-alive-and-well?source=feed#comment-376538 376538

On Feb 03 03:12 PM Larrysyr wrote:

> I read somewhere that money doesn't buy happiness - the person with
> $10 million is probably no happier than the person with $9 million.
>
>
> As an American who consumes, I have to say I have plenty of junk
> already. I'm not sure there's much I need to buy for a while, except
> for the necessary consumables like food and gas. And I can waiting
> until the plasma TV gets down below $200 before springing for that
> luxury.
>
> Most people I know are in similar situations. There haven't been
> any shortages or civil unrest (yet), and we seem to have plenty to
> feed, clothe, and shelter pretty much everyone. It's actually a
> relief to stop buying stuff - we're running out of room for storage
> at my house.
>
> Maybe we should create a happiness index and work off of that and
> forget about consumption-based measures like GDP.
>
> Just a thought.]]> Thu, 05 Feb 2009 07:00:21 -0500

On Feb 03 03:12 PM Larrysyr wrote:

> I read somewhere that money doesn't buy happiness - the person with
> $10 million is probably no happier than the person with $9 million.
>
>
> As an American who consumes, I have to say I have plenty of junk
> already. I'm not sure there's much I need to buy for a while, except
> for the necessary consumables like food and gas. And I can waiting
> until the plasma TV gets down below $200 before springing for that
> luxury.
>
> Most people I know are in similar situations. There haven't been
> any shortages or civil unrest (yet), and we seem to have plenty to
> feed, clothe, and shelter pretty much everyone. It's actually a
> relief to stop buying stuff - we're running out of room for storage
> at my house.
>
> Maybe we should create a happiness index and work off of that and
> forget about consumption-based measures like GDP.
>
> Just a thought.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/118360-5-reasons-a-chinese-al-jazeera-is-a-good-thing?source=feed#comment-376533 376533
Tenecent company, one of the most successful internet companies in China, tried to broadcast online a silly new years show, and the government stopped it, wanting no competition for their show. China's government has over 50,000 internet bloggers, who push government agendas under their own name while making sure companies delete non-aligned content. This is why Chinese Wikipedia was a failure. Every television show is carefully controlled and scripted to further government interests, whether they be social, political or economic.

So my question, in particular, is how does a broadcast system aimed only at furthering the government's goals change the government? Is it not likely the government will do what it does in its own interest, and this channel will be assigned the task of aiding it internationally, just like it currently must aid the country domestically. In the rare instance that a reporter hits on a story the government finds objectionable, that reporter's career ends. There will likely be shows on happy and creative Chinese, thankful foreigners, and then those foreigners doing bad things or being racist against China. Now I feel that China deserves to struggle to further its aims, and one more voice on the international cable circuit is a fine thing to balance out the other bland views out there. But can you detail for us how the feedback loop you hope for will prosper? What is the model by which one could make assumptions about this sort of project?

]]> Thu, 05 Feb 2009 06:53:45 -0500
Tenecent company, one of the most successful internet companies in China, tried to broadcast online a silly new years show, and the government stopped it, wanting no competition for their show. China's government has over 50,000 internet bloggers, who push government agendas under their own name while making sure companies delete non-aligned content. This is why Chinese Wikipedia was a failure. Every television show is carefully controlled and scripted to further government interests, whether they be social, political or economic.

So my question, in particular, is how does a broadcast system aimed only at furthering the government's goals change the government? Is it not likely the government will do what it does in its own interest, and this channel will be assigned the task of aiding it internationally, just like it currently must aid the country domestically. In the rare instance that a reporter hits on a story the government finds objectionable, that reporter's career ends. There will likely be shows on happy and creative Chinese, thankful foreigners, and then those foreigners doing bad things or being racist against China. Now I feel that China deserves to struggle to further its aims, and one more voice on the international cable circuit is a fine thing to balance out the other bland views out there. But can you detail for us how the feedback loop you hope for will prosper? What is the model by which one could make assumptions about this sort of project?

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111897-seven-ways-to-invest-in-brazil?source=feed#comment-336123 336123 Mon, 22 Dec 2008 17:33:53 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/110713-main-u-s-creditors-rub-shoulders?source=feed#comment-332220 332220 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 13:14:41 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111134-momentum-for-infrastructure-is-building-in-both-u-s-and-china?source=feed#comment-332208 332208 ]]> Wed, 17 Dec 2008 13:07:25 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/111057-will-u-s-growth-beat-china-s-in-2009?source=feed#comment-332177 332177 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 12:44:52 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111249-germany-is-fighting-with-europe-can-china-be-far-behind?source=feed#comment-332148 332148 Wed, 17 Dec 2008 12:22:53 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/109409-chinese-stock-market-bottoms-what-should-u-s-investors-do?source=feed#comment-322397 322397 Sat, 06 Dec 2008 10:58:33 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/108939-china-brazil-cashing-in-on-higher-food-prices?source=feed#comment-322359 322359
Also, regarding China, from where did you source that with "the government controls lifted, farmers and traders can resume to set market-driven prices without permission from the government." I have read and heard the opposite, that Grain prices are being more tightly controlled, have increased a little because the sharp drop in prices this fall made a lot of rural populations violent. ]]> Sat, 06 Dec 2008 08:52:36 -0500
Also, regarding China, from where did you source that with "the government controls lifted, farmers and traders can resume to set market-driven prices without permission from the government." I have read and heard the opposite, that Grain prices are being more tightly controlled, have increased a little because the sharp drop in prices this fall made a lot of rural populations violent. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/108379-should-china-raise-wages?source=feed#comment-318005 318005
Commenting on giving away consumer items to people... One sentence I noticed today in Bloomberg, strikes me as a similar move, and one I like:

"Sichuan Changhong, a maker of television sets, surged 9.9 percent to 3.43 yuan in Shanghai after China's government said it will allow farmers in 14 provinces to buy selected household appliances at a discount in a move to boost rural consumption." (bloomberg, today)

Of course it may emerge that Beijing will force whiteware makers to swallow this discount, that the discount is non-material, or that discounted devices are broken, thus undermining the effort, but if China promoted properly a STEEP discount (issued through rebates) for 6 months to middle/low income rural residents, a lot of people might jump at the chance for a once-in-a-lifetime purchase.
]]> Mon, 01 Dec 2008 07:45:55 -0500
Commenting on giving away consumer items to people... One sentence I noticed today in Bloomberg, strikes me as a similar move, and one I like:

"Sichuan Changhong, a maker of television sets, surged 9.9 percent to 3.43 yuan in Shanghai after China's government said it will allow farmers in 14 provinces to buy selected household appliances at a discount in a move to boost rural consumption." (bloomberg, today)

Of course it may emerge that Beijing will force whiteware makers to swallow this discount, that the discount is non-material, or that discounted devices are broken, thus undermining the effort, but if China promoted properly a STEEP discount (issued through rebates) for 6 months to middle/low income rural residents, a lot of people might jump at the chance for a once-in-a-lifetime purchase.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107883-china-continues-downward-revisions?source=feed#comment-315886 315886
Because no one in China has the guanxi to sit down with every regional money baron to convince them it is in their interest to spend in a time of deflation, if a stimulus is to accomplish its goal in China, the clever politician (or businessman) would find a way to sidestep this issue entirely.

One cannot issue checks to 1.3 billion people (or half that number). One cannot implement healthcare overnight to a people accustomed to being lied to all their lives. No one will start spending because the government tells them to.

One idea that occurs to me is to have a second round of export rebates that are not export rebates at all, but rather domestic resale rebates, making all these factories' items ridiculously cheap for six months if sold to the internal provinces; could this help spur the entrepreneurial chinese spirit to do the rest? There would be a bit of round-tripping, but with all the new apartments recently bought, there might be a few people willing to leave their old apartments and actually move into the nice ones, outfitting them, getting a taste of consumption while openning up housing to the lower classes...

mr. D.R., i had (and many, i'm sure have) the same idea with the federalist papers comparisons. China does need Beijing to consolidate power, but neither with fancy words nor with money. It's too risky to let the increasing incidence of pubic unrest grow because it had been growing at an increasing pace, and i believed the government stopped publishing statistics on public incidents, around when you arrived. You might look into the role the military played in america's state/federal struggles: which is the only way Beijing can arrest anyone these days - by sending their own people on a plane and having them return that same day. The roads and facades are built to american specifications, but just inside those starbucks doors, the entire system of thought and communication is very different from anything an english knows. Spend some time in a handful of 4rth tier cities drinking - the government's national pasttime - posing as an investor. Invite the local bank of china manager out to dinner - not telling him youre writing a book -,and bring a translator you trust (preferably a pretty young woman). see where the money goes. Or if you want to talk to retired government officials who know what is what, try the same at Chengdu's KTV's. If you want active local officials at their best, the province rated most corrupt in 2006 was Qinghai province. try just asking at the government office about the 2% investment rebate you get for starting a business: they will laugh and say the emperor is far away - or tell you a story. They nearly doubled the population of their capital city - on paper - to get more aid from Beijing, and they even put away all their audi cars and suv's, ferrying hu jin tao himself in a broken down mini tourist bus, when the leader of China came to visit in 2005. Pre-federal america has some stories like this, and all humanity shares the tendencies that in China are just more developed. While the Mao Dynasty china currently abides has made some strides, this may or may not be its greatest test yet.

China needs stability, and soon the solution may no longer be an academic exercise.

In the next six months we should know. ]]> Wed, 26 Nov 2008 18:04:16 -0500
Because no one in China has the guanxi to sit down with every regional money baron to convince them it is in their interest to spend in a time of deflation, if a stimulus is to accomplish its goal in China, the clever politician (or businessman) would find a way to sidestep this issue entirely.

One cannot issue checks to 1.3 billion people (or half that number). One cannot implement healthcare overnight to a people accustomed to being lied to all their lives. No one will start spending because the government tells them to.

One idea that occurs to me is to have a second round of export rebates that are not export rebates at all, but rather domestic resale rebates, making all these factories' items ridiculously cheap for six months if sold to the internal provinces; could this help spur the entrepreneurial chinese spirit to do the rest? There would be a bit of round-tripping, but with all the new apartments recently bought, there might be a few people willing to leave their old apartments and actually move into the nice ones, outfitting them, getting a taste of consumption while openning up housing to the lower classes...

mr. D.R., i had (and many, i'm sure have) the same idea with the federalist papers comparisons. China does need Beijing to consolidate power, but neither with fancy words nor with money. It's too risky to let the increasing incidence of pubic unrest grow because it had been growing at an increasing pace, and i believed the government stopped publishing statistics on public incidents, around when you arrived. You might look into the role the military played in america's state/federal struggles: which is the only way Beijing can arrest anyone these days - by sending their own people on a plane and having them return that same day. The roads and facades are built to american specifications, but just inside those starbucks doors, the entire system of thought and communication is very different from anything an english knows. Spend some time in a handful of 4rth tier cities drinking - the government's national pasttime - posing as an investor. Invite the local bank of china manager out to dinner - not telling him youre writing a book -,and bring a translator you trust (preferably a pretty young woman). see where the money goes. Or if you want to talk to retired government officials who know what is what, try the same at Chengdu's KTV's. If you want active local officials at their best, the province rated most corrupt in 2006 was Qinghai province. try just asking at the government office about the 2% investment rebate you get for starting a business: they will laugh and say the emperor is far away - or tell you a story. They nearly doubled the population of their capital city - on paper - to get more aid from Beijing, and they even put away all their audi cars and suv's, ferrying hu jin tao himself in a broken down mini tourist bus, when the leader of China came to visit in 2005. Pre-federal america has some stories like this, and all humanity shares the tendencies that in China are just more developed. While the Mao Dynasty china currently abides has made some strides, this may or may not be its greatest test yet.

China needs stability, and soon the solution may no longer be an academic exercise.

In the next six months we should know. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/107704-china-a-good-time-to-be-long?source=feed#comment-315833 315833 Wed, 26 Nov 2008 16:21:16 -0500