M.R. Henderson

Yet Another Huge Economic Number Coming out of China. Hard to Believe

Chinese data has never been accurate, but has always implicitly or explicitly served the purposes of those who report up the ladder. Recently a team of 1st tier western demographic economists were told not to come to China this fall to help design the first real household survey here. I would take this to mean that data is not becoming more transparent. There are some statistics we can use to get closer to China's economy, but they are most definitely not internally generated numbers, but rather estimates of oil imports, reports by foreign run franchises, imports and protectionist measures.

As for those looking to invest in this incredibly volatile and opaque market, more people are getting sick here, as could be expected with no regulation. And while the stimulus has pushed up the stock market, a number of medical suppliers have been red-flagged, pushing down their prices even while hospitals are being build across the country. A basket of flagged hospital suppliers could deliver a nice return.

A note to boot: along with money and relationships, health care has become a very important gift between business men, like gifts of Wisconsin ginseng, or reclusive qi gong doctors who can heal anything, medicine has become the preferred medium of Chinese business bribes.