zaparozhe

Natural Gas ETF Premium Reaches 20%: Time to Unload?

you are correct. when price is less than cost of production supply will slow down, eventually. Low price will also increase demand for NG - things like LNG for vehichles have great future. Key is "EVENTUALLY". UNG rolls the front NG contract which will not help you. The futures market reflect higher gas prices (more than 2x) down the road.


On Sep 05 09:55 PM rick12345 wrote:

> Call me naive, but if natural gas becomes cheap enough why wouldn't
> demand and therefore its price subesquently rise ? It's like summizing
> that the price of oil is about to fall to zero because more people
> are moving toward fuel efficient vehicles. Natural gas is a clean
> fuel that has far more potential than other non-renewable resources
> like coal and oil. I know that I for one would rather pay $1 a gallon
> for compressed gas (probably less once tthe technology is refined)
> than $3 a gallon for petroleum.

Natural Gas ETF Premium Reaches 20%: Time to Unload?

People, forget about the premium problem for the moment. UNG is a wasting asset with existing contango. unless there is a quick spike from a hurricane the nav will just be eaten away (quickly) over the next six months. If you don't understand how this works you should just stay away or toss greenbacks out your window as you drive down the highway.

FYI, last day for trading NG k's is 9/28. So the fund needs to roll by then.

Natural Gas ETF Premium Reaches 20%: Time to Unload?

This is a terrible vehichle to use to be long NG. Between the current contango and the premium over NAV the only thing growing between now and December is your tax loss. Your only hope is to pray for another Katrina between now and then.

If you feel you need to own NG look for some of the gas producers with real assets not a gimmick ETF sold by the street.


On Sep 02 03:02 PM Windsun33 wrote:

> Every time I think this can't go any lower, it does.
>
> Not into it much, only about 1% of my total portfolio, so I can afford
> to hold onto it forever - and at my current 25% loss on it, not much
> point in selling it.
>
> If it is still down at the end of Dec, it will make a good tax reduction
> for my capital gains... (gotta be some good news here someplace).

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities ETF

you can actually go to the treasury's website and get the information on all their issues. Your broker or their website can also give you an issue date on each TIP bond - anything issued in the last year or 18 months will not have any inflation factor - it may even be below par, which you will pick up when the bond matures if there is ever a positive inflation factor. You broker or any online brokerage account will give you the inflation factor before you buy the bond and you should make sure it is close to or less than 1.00 or 100 (depending on how they list it, i.e. at par or less)




On May 23 12:59 PM big yankee wrote:

> But, how does an individual investor make sure to purchase the newly
> issued TIPS? Is there an easy way or a fund that does that?

Treasury Inflation Protected Securities ETF

It all relates to securities lending. The fund lends their securities in exchange for cash collateral that is then invested in ST securities. They try to enhance yield by doing this. I am not a big fan of sec lending as there is generally more risk to this than many peiple expect. At the hight of the credit crisis AIG and others got tied up in their shorts trying to administer these sec lending operations and there are some funds out there that have had difficulty getting all their cash collateral back from their sec lending agent. I view securities lending as picking up nickels in front of a steamroller - if you, or your agent, trip you might be in pain. No free lunch on WS, if you haven't heard!

I own some TIP but I have been moving to individual bonds for several reasons. Primarily if you buy recently issued TIP bonds you will not have a decine in your principal if we have some deflation in the next year or so. With a TIP fund, they will own a number of old bonds that can lose principle in periods of deflation.


On Apr 16 01:12 PM Toby wrote:

> When you look at the holdings of the iShares TIP ETF, the fund appears
> to be leveraged. You have to look at the annual or 6-mo reports to
> find this information. For example the annual report shows:
>
> $6.35 B in actual TIP bonds
> $2.85 B in Money Market Funds
> ______
> $9.20 B Total investments
> -$2.79 B Liabilities
> ______
> $6.41 B Net Investment
>
> Can anyone explain what's going on with these 'liabilities'? Their
> other gov't bond funds appear to be run similarly.

10 Dangerous Stocks to Avoid

agree, this is a very one dimensional look at these co's - of little value.

For example: COP - LT debt=27 bil, Sh equity=55 bil - doesn't look highly leveraged to me. Apart from 4 bil in retirement obligations, all other non-current liabilities are tied to LT assets.

blind screening is just a scratch of the surface and not only useless but it can be very misleading.

How GE Compares to Other Banks

22thoroughbred:

I assume you a very wealthy guy who can afford to make little bets like this to amuse yourself.

If you're not, you're an idiot with little understanding of risk v reward. One day you'll get run over like the guy who picks up nickels in front of the steamroller.

Why I Bought and Sold Buckle on the Same Day

think you should buy an cheap index fund and close your brokerage account - you're just wasting time

10 Most Interesting Stocks for 2009

Does "interesting" mean future reading about chapter 11 filings, liquidations, nationalizations"? These co's are either on the ropes or just plane crappy.

think you should go on permanent holiday

Berkshire Hathaway Credit Risk, Index Puts Are Overblown Worries

They are insurance cos who hedged the guarantees that they gave their "equity-linked" annuity holders. Those that did not hedge are now having great difficulty taking mtm losses on their obligations (Hartford, Pru et al).


On Nov 21 01:21 AM LinusK wrote:

> Quote: "I don't understand why you add a multiple of earnings to
> the value of the stocks and bonds he owns. Aren't the earnings coming
> from these stocks and bonds and are impounded in their values? "
>
>
> Yes. Tilson says you can own Berkshire "for free," but the truth
> is you're paying a premium. Maybe it's worth it to have Buffet and
> his team managing your money for you. But you're paying for that
> management.
>
> I could get 4-5% virtually risk free. Is Berkshire's management really
> worth another 8.3% on top of that? Can Berkshire - or any company
> - really grow at that rate indefinitely? (How long before they own
> everything?)
>
> The other thing - is - who are these counter-parties Tilson describes?
>
>
> Who pays $3.2 billion in premiums to guard against "an extremely
> unlikely" $4.7 billion loss? I mean, I'm just a schmuck, but even
> I don't pay $32,000 to insure a house worth $47K.
>
> And who pays $4.85 billion NOW on a bet that stocks will be worth
> LESS in 13 years? Where do they hide such financially-challenged
> billionaires?
>
> Who are these guys, and how do I meet them?
>
>

Where Are the TIPS Strips?

There are some TIPS with very low coupons - look at the April 2013. I think the coupon is like 5/8%. That's pretty close to a zero. It's a recent issue (therefore face can't go negative as with older bonds) and it trade with a similar YTM as the 5-yr straight treaury - no cost for the inflation insurance - go figure.