Gualberto Diaz_

The Inverted Yield Curve's Predictive Power

Is there any correlation with the length of the inversion and the severity of the recession?

Treasury Yield Curve Indicating Hard Landing

Even though the 2 year- 10 year spread hit -.16, look at what the 3 month - 10 year spread hit. It closed at -.52, with a 90 day average of -.23. That gives us about a 30% chance of a recession within the 6 months, and if the 90 day follows the daily to -.52, we're looking at a 40% chance of a recession within the next month.