Teutonic Knight

China: The One Global Market with Gains Behind the Gloom

Personally, and speaking on very personal grounds only, I find it somewhat troubling.

The Chinese had had no democratic traditions in their culture and history, and are, by and large, a Godless culture. (Buda was not a God; he died and was not resurrected). But ironically perhaps, being Godless make them a "great" nation.

I am more pessimistic about the past relationship between the United States and China. Some sixty years after the Chinese Civil War between the Nationalist and the Communist of 1947-1949, we America are still involved in that Civil War. Come to think about this situation is quite odd historically speaking. Historians generally attributed the continuing skirmishes and hostilities between the U.S. and Great Britain to lingering from 1800 to around 1880 -- some eighty years. The War of 1812 was a partly direct result of America's failed attempt to annex Canada. Perhaps it would take longer for this time around. Generally I am pessimistic but the future is unknown.

On Nov 23 10:38 AM sundrenched wrote:

> I hope you're right since I'm long quite a few Chinese stocks but
> in the short run (maybe more than 5 years) it will be a rough ride.
> The projects that you mention are all capital investment related,
> but increasing private consumption will be the hard part. Even the
> Japanese, with a 2-generation headstart, are still tight-wallets
> when it comes to personal consumption. With little or no social
> safety net, fresh memory of poverty, and the bottom falling out of
> the export economy, good luck getting the Chinese consumer to take
> over where the American ones left off.
>
> Now, my optimism (and why I own shares) comes more from my trust
> in the work ethic and money-hunger of the Chinese. It took Communism
> to keep the Chinese down, but move out of their way and they'll start
> making money! I live in Singapore and see it all around me. Same
> thing in the region (Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia), the Chinese
> minorities are the entrepreneurial backbone. As a European living
> in Singapore and traveling a lot through Asia, sometimes I roll my
> eyes at the Chinese culture -- the three things that stand out the
> most are money-worship, one-upmanship (face), and ethnic nationalism
> -- but yeah, now that these guys have got a taste of capitalism,
> in the long run they'll figure out a way to grow their economy.<br/>
>
> Moreover, I wonder if some of the fears about exports falling off
> a cliff are a bit overdone already. Sure, I wouldn't want to invest
> in any Chinese industry with no competitive moat at the moment (e.g.,
> textiles or toys), but companies like Mindray (medical equipment)
> -- I don't see why their exports should suffer that much, on the
> contrary, since they're the cost-leader.