Teutonic Knight

10 Predictions for 2009

Tim (Author),

I concur with your No. 9 Prediction that approximately an additional 4 million jobs will be lost in 2009. Late in last year a reputable SA author predicted when the current malaise is finally over a total of some 7 million jobs will have been lost, including a lion share from the financial sector.

As known, approximately 1 and 1/2M jobs were lost in 2008. Your figure of another 4M for 2009 would add up to about 5.5M to the tally by 2009 year's end. Give and take, 2010 will add up for that 1.5M for a Grand Total of 7M.

Unrelated with your No.9, however, I do have an observation on your assessment that "Healthcare will be the only sector adding jobs..." As the U.S. Healthcare system is primarily employment-based, meaning that most if not all employers pay the lion share of its employees' healthcare premiums, and so as employment drops so will its support base. It was predicted elsewhere in a survey that by the time the current recession is over, about 20% of hospitals around the country will have to be closed. The coming predicted closing of hospitals will have devastating effects on the medical suppliers. Consequently I believe that employment in this sector will be flat at best.

Aside from the 10 Predictions, I would like to venture to add that our college education sector will be hit in 2009 and a few years thereafter. This sector had in my view been oversupplied and been feeding itself on the supply of foreige studnets, a primary source of which from China. However, as that nation will undergo its own financial crisis, there will be a sharp drop in the supply of paying foreign students for this "Smokeless Industry"