Teutonic Knight

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

Alex -

Concur, also at a very enticing low margin interest rate, and tax-deductible too courtesy of Professor B. Shalom B.

TK


On Nov 27 01:05 PM Alex Filonov wrote:

> Correction: all carry traders are using leverage, it's the name of
> the game. Before using dollars to buy something, carry traders borrow
> them.

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

Doc 224899 -

Concur; however, I believe Mr. Obama, after having been voted out of office in 2012 and be replaced by a Mormon, will watch the Second Great Depression continue to unfold LONG AFTER he becomes a private citizen (perhaps from the library name after him).

TK


On Nov 27 12:02 PM Doc 224899 wrote:

> The Age of Aqarius is past, and now we gaze in fear at the looming
> shadows cast by the rising Obamaclypse.

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

Graham -

Concur, as you noted elsewhere earlier, the hidden depression had really started as early as the 2001-2009 decade.

TK


On Nov 27 03:56 PM Graham and Dodd Investor wrote:

>
> "The time to avoid a depression was years ago."
>
> In 2001, Alan Greenspan could (and should) have let the U.S. incur
>
> financial "bronchitis" instead of aggressively lowering rates. <br/>
>
> Because now the prospect is for "pneumonia."

Another Crisis Looms Right Around the Corner

Geoffster -

Concur, since our military is a way of life.

TK


On Nov 24 07:31 PM The Geoffster wrote:

> Don't worry. If it gets as bad as you think, the military will take
> over and you can do your shopping at the PX.

Obama will rise and fall with the dollar: The electorate is only as happy as the value of the greenbacks in their pockets.

One year after Obama having been elected to Office, voters can now catch a glimpse of his real face.

He is dedicated to spreading wealth vice creating wealth.

The unemployment rate looks more like the rising temperature shown on the thermometer of a patient having a fever.

So what is he like - another Bosch dressed in a different costume, with a bit more pizzazz and dressing.

TK

In a world where one man must fight to keep from being buried in debt ... Now appearing before your holiday movies: the Fed. The central bank is paying for 45-second ads to appear in 12 metro theaters, encouraging responsible credit-card use in the holiday shopping season.

It doesn't make sense to me. It accentuates their seemingly ongoing hypocrisy.

They (the Fed) are auctioning Treasuries at ~ 0 % akin to taking that 0 % balance transfer from the Big Banks credit card, only to have to pay them back later when that rate resets.

It is mind-boggling why they even have to waste money doing this. As I related elsewhere earlier, they "Live in a World of Their Own". Come join me in singing the 60's Seekers "We Live in a World of Our Own".

Things that the Bureaucrats would do are scary.

TK

From Financial Armageddon, a roundup of of holiday spending surveys, with salient excerpts. "Those who have been counting on a V-shaped recovery in the (consumer-dependent) U.S. economy might want to reconsider."

Probably a inverted W all the way to 2025 is my take. Things being the way it is, it will most likely take 10 to 15 years to fix.

The Puzzles of U.S. Political Economy Today

Mr. Brad DeLong -

Thank you for a good article. I particularly like your using the word "..Puzzling...".

Well, if you look back our history over the past ~ 60 years since the end of the Second World War, two words sum up our nation's naiveté - - - "Bail Out and Bubbles".

One could go back and examine our deeds, economically and politically on immigration, foreign wars, dot.com, housing, S&L, credit crisis, national debts, mortgage crisis, auto incentives, SUV's, and others too numerous. One thing is clear, we never stop creating "Bubbles and Bailouts" indispensably.

TK

Why are T-Bill Yields Again Approaching Zero?

Good article and good comments. True, the last sentence in this article is quite cryptic.

Does the author mean to hint that the "surprise lurking around the next corner (i.e., 2010)" would be a big rally or a big crash of the market?

I parked all my money, half in TIPS, and half in short-term < 2-year maturity Treasuries. Is this a good strategy?

Would some SA commentator be kind enough to give me some free advice here?

Thanks in advance.
TK

Roubini on Unemployment: 'The Worst Is Yet to Come'

To Al-USA - -

Concur.

But I would also recommend we change the names and signs of all our nation's numerous presently so-called "Leadership Programs, Leadership Centers" to "Lack of Leadership Programs, Lack of Leadership Centers" to reflect the need for self-examination for the plundering of precious resources by the overpaid (and greedy) CEO's

TK.


On Nov 19 02:29 AM Al-USA wrote:

> Teutonic Knight wrote:
> "
> For now, tighten up our belts, lower wages and salaries, then we
> could become once again competitive.
> "
>
> You mean for the overpaid CEO's right?
>
> Thought so...

Why the Stock Market Should Crash

Charles -

Good article. The other thing is the psychological effects too.

Of late we heard the Bill Gates and Warren Buffet coming out of the woodwork to mutter to the crowds saying "...Hey guys, the worst is behind us...(the sky is all clear now, everything is going to a okay)..."

Those words in parenthesis are mine. Well, doesn't this sound too familiar? As with the Volkswagen Toureg and the Toyota Vanzer, these two models are their worst sellers, and yet they spent tons of money in the TV airwaves pounding their virtues and pushing their sales. In actuality, the VW Toureg had been rated as one of the least reliable and slowest-selling models! Similarly, the Toyota story is everyone's guess.

The point is Companies always push hardest for those that are hardest to sell (remember your real estate agent kept showing you over and over that particular house that you had doubts about?)

Moreover, if indeed the worst had come and gone, it would be obvious to everyone. The fact that these two Yesterday's gentlemen had to say it openly is by itself suspect. If indeed the Dow would plunge to 3000 in 2010, their wealth would simply be cut in half at least. So you see the vested interest there.

TK

Roubini on Unemployment: 'The Worst Is Yet to Come'

Things don't look too good, isn't it?

The Obama regime hasn't listened well so far one year into coming into office. Partly, being human, we don't want to hear let alone believing in bad news.

Mr. Obama is a very frightened man deep inside him, so he clings onto the old Bushie appointees such as the Timmy and Benny. These folks are patriotic Americans, no doubt, but they were part of the gang that steered us into this mess. Consequently, their actions tend to be pro-self-denial and regrettably, covering their tracks.

There is no magic with unemployment numbers. Folks, we are in real world unfolding, Globe-Trotting to China (Hillary once, Obama now, and Hillary twice) just won't magically fix anything here at home. To ask the 1.3B Chinese citizens to rush to buy American goods to give us jobs is pretty far-fetched.

For now, tighten up our belts, lower wages and salaries, then we could become once again competitive. We just can't print ourselves out of this mess.

TK

The FDIC's failure Friday claims a smaller California bank (at a cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund of $27.4M) and - via a purchase-and-assumption agreement with IBERIABANK of Louisiana - two bigger ones, in Sarasota and Naples, Fla., at a combined cost of $959M.

ebworthen -

Your comment sounded to me similar to Noah crying to the sinful multitude before the Great Flood coming.

But yeah, behold ye all, I see the stock market boys are still stooped down around that sand-box playing a game of marble balls, without heeding.

TK

Watch out, says Hong Kong leader Donald Tsang; the next crisis is coming from the Fed's zero-interest-rate policies: "I’m scared and leaders should look out ... America is doing exactly what Japan did last time." He thinks a dollar carry trade fueled by cheap currency is inflating an Asian asset bubble.

Is this an oracle from one who directly intervened in the Hong Kong stock market in their 1998 financial crisis? Donald Tsang, then Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (SAR) Financial Secretary directly purchased shares in the open market in the Heng Sang Stock Exchange to foil speculators who were shorting. Ironically though, it paid off!

On the other hand, credit is due his predecessor then SAR Chief Executive Tung Chee-Hwa for freezing and even rolling back the Hong Kong Civil Service salaries.

America has now fallen into hard times. Are we ready to listen to the Asians? Or are we Americans willingly and blindly going our way?

Oh well, Frank Sinatra singing "...I did it MY WAY..." comes to my ears and mind. So, BHO, Tim, and Benny, come join Frank in singing "I did it MY WAY".

TK

Bankrupt Nortel Networks extends the deadline to make offers for the optical networking unit it's selling, as it looks like nobody is yet topping Ciena's (CIEN -2.1%) stalking-horse bid of $390M and 10M shares (about $515M total).

Graham -

I believe you meant to say "...and the common stock is now worth very little" instead. The company is being auctioned off to collect "a few" bucks (loonies though). Oh, BTW, I worked for NT in the early seventies and I wonder why the Canadian government did not bail it out. I always thought that Canada is much more "socialistic" than its cousin to the south. Whereas, surprise, we have had so many bailouts of late. Mind boggling. Would you care to comment?

TK


On Nov 10 11:53 AM Graham and Dodd Investor wrote:

> Nortel was once a great company, overreached, and is now worth very
> little.