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  • Why Ford Is A Win/Win For Us [View article]
    You have the Company Guidance showing the upward slope of earnings through the current year, following a year of well explained (and planned) earnings impairments; and you have the analysts aligning around the guidance with reasonable forecasts that are similar to previous "good years".

    Of course, if the zombie apocalypse comes tomorrow, then sure, Ford shares could pull back.

    Ford isn't an IPO that is controlled by the mood of a handful of profit-happy day traders, who would gladly trample on their own grandmothers to try to book a quick profit. Ford is a 112 year old company with 4 billion shares that return a 3-4% dividend, and is showing earnings growth of 37% for the year (after a very - 28% - down 2014), and another 18% in expected growth next year. Share price should be expected to move along with it.
    May 22, 2015. 02:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ford Is A Win/Win For Us [View article]

    "I am convinced that Ford will be a DOW component some day, replacing the traditional GM spot."

    On June 8, 2009, General Motors and Citigroup were replaced by The Travelers Companies and Cisco Systems.

    That ship went and sailed away. Six years ago.
    May 22, 2015. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ford Is A Win/Win For Us [View article]
    You do understand that investing in a stock is all about expected future performance, not the past. Right?

    The guidance and earnings projections are all about what is coming, relative to the past. More than 90% of the analysts are saying Ford is a buy or at least hold, and there are a lot of Strong Buys in there...

    They are not looking at the share performance over the last year, except to validate the P/E models for Ford, in good times and bad.

    Staring out the rear window is not going to help your driving forward.
    May 22, 2015. 02:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford reduces output slightly in China [View news story]
    At the end of the day, Ford's clearly-stated (and currently executing) strategy is to match production to meet natural demand, to protect margins and the "image".

    Other longstanding automakers in China may be slashing prices to boost demand on overstocked vehicles and to protect their existing market share, but Ford doesn't play that game. They are still coming up from a very low market share position, and have been growing naturally with compelling product introductions over the last year or two.

    As more new products come out as new segment entries from Ford (and Lincoln) over the next year or two, we'll see how the Chinese consumers respond to Ford's offerings. So far the response has been favorable.

    The Chinese auto market overall is stabilizing, and that can be expected to result in some seasonal swings above or below some natural level. Once the baseline SAAR is settled, the automakers will compete for the consumers' attention. To assume the battle will be strictly over pricing (price war) is naive. The Chinese are far more about the styling, design, comfort, and brand image, than they are about sticker prices and windshield markdowns and super weekend sales.
    May 22, 2015. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ford Is A Win/Win For Us [View article]
    GM was kicked out of the DOW 30 (DJIA - if that is what you mean) in 2009 when they declared Obamaruptcy.

    Or did you mean General Electric?
    May 22, 2015. 10:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ford Is A Win/Win For Us [View article]
    The robots are tools used by humans to do the calculations and trend lines and forecasts, and to act rapidly as soon as the commit criteria are met. But like all tools that operate on algorithm software, garbage in, garbage out. And a small glitch in the software crashes the whole.

    That some robot macros are unable to accurately pick the correct earnings number from the correct cell of a simple excel worksheet is a major nuisance, because it easily fools the inexperience and unaware. And it is a pretty good indication that there is no human supervisor checking the numbers for sanity and accuracy. Such is the laziness we have today: non-experts and inexperienced managers allowing the black box software from a supplier (guaranteed!) to do the invisible calculations and make the important decisions, without bothering to check to see if the answers are reasonable. Too much lack of oversight of the software. Need to trust the process, but verify the facts, with emphasis on the importance of the verifying and validating the models.

    Anyway, anyone with intelligence enough to recognize a simple math error in the P/E calculation, and a BS detector to know when there are lazy bovine around dropping false conclusions, can get to the correct numbers easily with a simple fact checking and an old fashioned calculator. They can then come to the proper conclusions.
    May 21, 2015. 02:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ford Is A Win/Win For Us [View article]
    My #CrystalBall is out of order. It hasn't worked since it failed to predict 9/11. How did your crystal ball do then, and why did you fail to alert the authorities?

    All I can do is refer you to what the expert industry analysts, who are supposed to be analyzing and scrutinizing and tracking such things, are saying.

    If they change their opinions and recommendations, perhaps based on economic realities and changes in Ford's guidance, then surely the circumstances supporting Ford's shares will go along with it.

    What else can you say? I don't believe in "gut feelings" and tea leaves and astrology and horoscopes. I believe in data and performance metrics.
    May 21, 2015. 10:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford's Production Expansion In The Russian Market [View article]
    Others, who LONG ago traded in or scrapped their problematic 10-year-old pre-Recession Navistar 6.0L SuperDuty for Ford's 6.7L SuperDuty with 35% more power and 51% more torque, or at least swapped in the 6.4L replacement engine from Navistar with 7% more power and 14% more torque, are more than happy to take your shares at the bargain price, with a sad and sympathetic head shake, and crocodile tears.
    May 21, 2015. 08:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ford Is A Win/Win For Us [View article]
    Ford posts monthly US wholesales on their investor site - while global wholesales and production figures are provided in quarterly reports.

    Other organizations publish monthly new vehicle registrations, representing retail sales, usually obtained as FOIA government data. You may have to google that. SA often has summary articles with links to other media reporting the data.
    May 21, 2015. 08:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford European car registrations: +2.3% [View news story]
    May 20, 2015. 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ford Is A Win/Win For Us [View article]
    Based on the anecdotal bits and pieces of data provided by Ford, they built and sold about 58,000 2015 F150s through April. The rest of the 240,000 F-series pickups sold year to date were 2014 models, and the higher-weight rating SuperDuty versions (F250, F350, F450, etc.)

    The supply of 2014 models should be nearly exhausted by now, just as the Kansas City plant starts to ramp up to full production. Both Dearborn and Kansas City have the monthly capacity to build around 30,000 units each, or up to 720,000 per year between them. So far they have evidently been operating at less than half of available production capacity year to date, in a rather drawn-out ramping up process both in Dearborn and Kansas City.

    Total F-series sales could be back on pace to be at a million a year, when combining the F150 with the SuperDuty, and that should be a goal for Ford in the third quarter if consumer and fleet demand is sufficient, and once dealership lots get fully stocked with sufficient inventory. Through April, dealerships only had a very limited supply of mostly premium editions, which are not that much of interest to fleet customers and entry-level consumers. Also through April, Ford has lost significant market share in pickups due to low availability of the 2015 model. Hopefully that will start to turn around by June.
    May 20, 2015. 12:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ford Is A Win/Win For Us [View article]
    Well the average transaction prices have been up by thousands of dollars, year to date. Although that is almost certainly due at least in part due to the low fleet sales from Kansas City's slow production ramp-up, and the early-adopters getting expensive, high end premium editions.
    May 20, 2015. 11:30 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Ford Is A Win/Win For Us [View article]
    The target price is meant to represent fair share pricing after the earnings from the quarter are announced and confirmed as met, and assuming the forward guidance and forecasts don't change.

    If the earnings forecasts missed, as in the first quarter, or if future earnings forecasts are reduced, then expect a proportional fall back on share price. If earnings are beat, or if near term forecasts are increased, then expect a proportional lift on target price.
    May 20, 2015. 11:20 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford European car registrations: +2.3% [View news story]
    Ford Ford's part, the Takata recall is for 538,977 of their 2004 Ford Rangers and 2005-2007 Mustangs - about 1.6% of the 34 million.
    May 20, 2015. 10:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Ford Motor: Are We Going Sideways Another Year? [View article]
    you forgot the found on road dead and first on race day (NASCAR)
    May 20, 2015. 10:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment