Sonia Mirza

Most Over/UnderValued U.S. Housing Markets

"over-valued regions are becoming a little less overvalued"

could you quantify "a little less overvalued" please?

Also, do you have more detailed info on the PA market? I'd be curious although, totally not expecting an answer...

Why Eliminating Guidance is a Big Mistake

Waste of time or not...inaccurate or not...it is a necessary evil, isn't it?
The long term investor sees no use in the job of a day trader...
The buyer of ___ see's no use for ___ in their portfolio
and then snickers at the uninformed party who was on the opposite side of his position...

like it or not, this is all part of the lubrication that ensures all the gears shift smoothly

While it might be hard for mgmt to predict accurately what the outcome might be, it gives that day trader something to play on, the newbie interns at GS (or insert name of IB here) a 12398 page report to write about to impress their bosses...and others perhaps a chance to enter/exit the market/rebalance etc etc

A Tale of 2 Inflation Rates

Paul - what market is that? East/West?

FTC Confirms That Most Homebuyers Couldn't Identify Mortgage Amount

Tim - do you have equivalent data (above) for the Eastern States (PA/NY/NJ) rather than SoCal?

NAR and Housing Forecasts

I confess I havent read the release yet, but preliminary question; what is the below forecast based on???

"national median existing-home price should ease by 1.3 percent to $219,100 in 2007 before rising 1.7 percent next year. The median new-home price will probably fall 2.3 percent to $240,800 this year, and then grow by 2.6 percent in 2008"

And based on this, should I buy me a crib?!

Are Share Buybacks Actually Good For Investors?

1. If the buyback was due to the company's perception that their shares are undervalued - somewhat a signal that they're undervalued in itself, yes.

2. If it's merely a play on #1 to artificially raise the price (since investors take this signal as a positive one) and have the general public jump on the bandwagon, and/or S/T EPS target maintenance then, no it's not good for shareholders...

3. If you have no alternative good use of FCF (that is cannot invest it in something that would potentially grow the company/value, therefore benefitting the SH as well), dividends is a direct cash provision. I am not sure how buybacks add direct value to SH other than price appreciation - perhaps I'm having a rather odd brainfart.

The Truth About Personal Savings and Debt Levels

lol@ you cannot eat brick.

And with the rest of your comments - perfect. A personal friend of ours (not in the US) is frankly one of the richest (you cannot tell by how he dresses, lives, or what he drives but rather by the way people kiss his @5$). Classic example of someone who has everything but enjoys likely very little of it. What's the point of the 100k+ porsche if it's parked in a garage overseas all year and you might take it out for a drive for a few days/365?

What? Inflation?

I'd add 1 more to the screwing you twice bit...

3) What does everyone think that ethanol is transported in?
Gas powered trucks...

Think Carefully Before Macro Hedging Your Life/Work/Oil Exposures

Fair enough. Except regarding: (a) many people wouldn't heat or cool their home during the day if they weren't working there,

I was assuming the opposite for 2 reasons; 1 - family (X goes to work, someone is in the house needing heat/ac). 2 - If this doesn't apply, when it gets MAD hot - people do not leave the AC turned off when at work, perhaps at a lower setting likewise with heating when it's below 0 out there...but oh well. I have no quantifiable statistics on this anyway...

Time Arbitrage and Quest Diagnostics: Stepping Away From the Rat Race

Agree completely with investors chasing last years performers - partially a media issue here too...

And your last sentence reminds me of Buffett's "wall st is the only place where when something goes on sale people panic". Yes, when something drops below its fair value...it;s amazing how the herds follow and fuel the fire.

Options Trader: Friday Morning Ideas

Hey Phil...about TM...is there something I am missing? I'm one of the arse's that went long when it wasn't budging from the 130 range and promptly fell ne'er to rise again ...I am not looking to exit soon - it's LT for me, but why the build up and now that they are confirmed as having passed GM it seems like we're in a doldrum of sorts?

Think Carefully Before Macro Hedging Your Life/Work/Oil Exposures

"about the impact on energy consumption of more people working from home. The downside is that heating and air conditioning use a ton of energy, and having each individual heat or cool their home during the work day may actually use more energy than commuting"

1. not if you do not use as much electricity/A/C as an office might - you're assuming if we put everyone who was trying to hedge their positions in an office, and let them do it from their homes...Remember, those homes (whether the person is in the office or not) would likely be consuming energy while the office was running also...You could also work outside under a tree - fresh air and whatnot. Size of house vs office, # of ACs in house vs office, # of ACs simultaneously on in all rooms in house vs office.

2. how many miles is the commute? what type of vehicle is being used in the commute? A hummer or a bike, err I mean prius?

While you present one extreme version of a response Ralph, in all likelihood, if this were tested, I do think you'd be proven wrong.

Put/Call Ratio for S&P 500 vs. Stocks Currently Above Its Long Term Average

therefore people were expecting the indices to decline MORE SO THAN STOCKS (hence more puts/calls), however since the LTA of Put/call spread of indices is falling wrt stox, then ppl are being more bullish on the indices VS STOCKS?

Put/Call Ratio for S&P 500 vs. Stocks Currently Above Its Long Term Average

"this indicator is above its long-term average, and falling. "

those words alone = mean reversion, nothing to write home about. I read this article earlier and didn't bother to comment because it just looks like a bit of a confused attempt to make some sort of point that is as yet unclear - have to agree with Earl - what exactly are you trying to say with that graph?

More puts/calls on the spx vs on stox, higher than its l/t ave, but falling, therefore people were expecting the indices to decline (hence more puts/calls), however since the LTA of Put/call spread of indices is falling wrt stox, then ppl are being more bullish on the indices? Is this what you're implying? Some clarification would be great, otherwise I'll have to shelve this in the verbal diarrhea section...

Valuation Analyses for Seven Stocks That Recently Reported Earnings

Sometimes I wonder about that lag (Ref: "GILD is far outpacing the projected growth rates that Wall Street has given the stock."). Great to have it in your bag before it makes the news though!