Sonia Mirza

Sell in May Indeed?

Monsieur Prieur - terwyl Ek is nie John...I did go ahead and read your article. You're right, the conclusion is very different and your full article does address some of my concerns. Selection bias above, I suppose, but I'm just a girl. Dankie all the same.

Greenspan's Telling It Like It Is

"traditional Greenspeak gobbledygook"?

Is this what it takes to "make it" (part of which includes getting your glutes chewed on CNBC by the fast money crew)...?

"purely a marketing tactic" --> everything is - wake up. Noone would offer free advice that would result in free profit. Noone would show your face on TV if they didnt believe it would bring in an audience. And who decides what makes the news in our fine newspapers?

Re: "To which I say, "So what?" That's why most money managers and others go on TV!""

Including yourself? You just discredited your own contribution above in saying that.

And by the way, Greenspan knew that the effectiveness of Monetary policy is contingent on whether that change is akin to an economic shock - unpredictable - or expected. If we knew rates were going up before the FOMC mtg, it would already have taken place/be priced - as such, rendering mpol ineffective. That unpredictable nature - how it should be - is what made him THE Greenspan.

ETF Investing With France's Sarkozy

hmm interesting...

esp when coupled with the tone of the bnp paribas call and the stock's performance since.
I know, only 1 co, and theyve been working at it for a while, but still...interesting to see your angle now juxtaposed with performance

A Few Reasons to Continue Equity Exposure

LOL

except, if you're referring to the kinda comet I think you are, there will BE no market left - since the Earth would have been destroyed, so even if you did cash out early, unless you could afford that flight out to another planet (and assuming we have running water, shelter, and electricity there) you might not get to enjoy your holdings anyway...

Sell in May Indeed?

Wow...May is over dude...talk about getting on the headline bandwagon a tad too late.

There have been at least 2 articles written on SA about this issue WEEKS ago. May is over, even if this cliche' had any merit, it's a bit late to be selling and walking now, innit?

Furthermore..." the best time to be invested in equities is the six months from early November through to the end of April, while the “bad” periods normally occur over the six months from May to October."

Based on the above, I should enter the market and trade furiously (I'm sorry did you say buy...sell...what's that?...doesn't matter?...just participate? ok...let me throw my money around, gladly) from Nov-Apr and do nothing May- Oct? Fine...while we might want to get in (or out) when there is enough trading volume to fascilitate your activity, doesn't anyone look at returns net of TC's??? And say I was the person who got the -4% return (gross) in the bad period mentioned above...what of the person at the opposite end of all of my moves? 0 sum game, baby, 0 sum game...

And as John says...why not just sell during the "good times" and buy during the down times? That seems to align with buy low sell high...

Look Out: Front Page WSJ "Why Market Optimists Say This Bull Has Legs"

How can the WSJ compete with Ritholtz ? lol

As much as I LOVE to read your comments, John, don't you think your giving BR a bit too much attention? 20+ comments on that last article that was completely worthless...
Ok I take that back. It was worth it for your eloquent dissection of its lack of value, but with its merit alone it was, once again,
a case of: +1 - 1 = 0

Agree on the currency point you make. Judging from all the mention of the currency gains in all the earnings calls I've heard so far...that graph does seem awfully rosy. I don't have a visual yet, but you do wonder when they say "one time event..."

And that BUI bit?! Brilliant!!! Very nicely done :)
I'd bow down, but...
Keep up the good work!

Options Trader: Tuesday Morning Ideas

We've come a long way since hand-cranked cellphones and the Fred Flinstone DIY car! Phones are expensive (at least in Tanzania, I think the same goes for the neighbouring East African countries like Kenya/Uganda) since you're not attached to a plan for a decade like you would be here - sim cards a' la' Europe is how they do it. Enjoy this: youtube.com/watch?v=bw...;mode=related&...

" 'ands free "

Thanks for the link, Phil!

A fun and informative read, as always.

Cheers!

Options Trader: Tuesday Morning Ideas

Just confirming due to first hand experience with this: "The cost of handsets is probably the most significant single barrier for people wanting mobile usage in many parts of the world,"

Phones you get for free here, cost at least 100 USD in East Africa.

And as far as Vodafone goes - they already have a significant proportion of the cellphone market in Tanzania/Kenya/RSA. Can't go anywhere without seeing a billboard. There's no electricity 12 hrs of the day for 6 months outta the year, but everyone has voda and there's bmw's and jeeps on the 2 main roads LOL.

Phil - your articles don't seem to make it to me until much later in the day - is the lag because they were submitted later or ...technical SA issues?

Also, you had mentioned in your last weeks wrapup you would start a new 10k position - did I miss the followup on that?

Let me know!!!

Options Trader: Tuesday Morning Ideas

Just confirming due to first hand experience with this: "The cost of handsets is probably the most significant single barrier for people wanting mobile usage in many parts of the world,"

Phones you get for free here, cost at least 100 USD in East Africa.

And as far as Vodafone goes - they already have a significant proportion of the cellphone market in Tanzania/Kenya/RSA. Can't go anywhere without seeing a billboard. There's no electricity 12 hrs of the day for 6 months outta the year, but everyone has voda and there's bmw's and jeeps on the 2 main roads LOL.

Phil - your articles don't seem to make it to me until much later in the day - is the lag because they were submitted later or ...technical SA issues?

Also, you had mentioned in your last weeks wrapup you would start a new 10k position - did I miss the followup on that?

Let me know!!!

Dollar Rebound In Sight?

And I do think he was trying to instigate discussion, in his own way. He's been at it a while. I think it broke his heart that Barry only responded with name-calling and google search. I know it did mine. Not much of a discussion that. and the arse-holish tone was reciprocated, mind you.

This is an example of a value-add: "The 15+ year monthly Euro/US Dollar chart below shows the current exchange rate to be roughly the same as other prior peaks in 1995 and 2005. That may suggest there is more downside potential for the Euro than upside at this point. [dates prior to the rollout of the Euro are synthetic rates based on the currencies that converted to the Euro]". Richard Shaw, a contributor on SA, is actually providing a direction that isn't both up and down, and some evidence to support his claim.

Dollar Rebound In Sight?

Fair enough Bryn - however, you do forget that the topic at hand had no value to contribute to begin with. 0 + 0 = 0

nothing gained or lost either way, except for my attention that might have been better directed towards (dare I say it) cramer...

I feel like the guy that says "I jost want to buy a melon"... except I just want to get some information (not BS)

www.youtube.com/watch?...;mode=related&...

Cheers!

The Weakening Value of the Dollar

and the cut-&-paste award goes to...
oh no...it's a tie!

Re: In their analysis they see the buck ultimately ending its run as the world's reserve currency.

On what have they based this? Quite a claim to make, considering the EURO would be the next best alternative but there are other issues that could quickly change the wind. Are we basing this solely on the recent shift by a few countries of USD holdings? If you have a link to the analysis, I'd be interested. Can't say I disagree yet...

Dollar Rebound In Sight?

"Let there be no doubt, the trend is down in both the medium- and long-term (our trend model is still bearish on the dollar), and it is too early to assume that a change in trend is taking place; however, there are plenty of reasons to begin nursing some positive expectations"...--&... (+1)+(-1) = 0

This downswing in the USD was long-expected. Since 2001, if I may add my 2 pence. One need only look at the large trade deficit (among other factors) to conclude that the USD might one day feel it. We can never say when the relative weakness will manifest, or when it will reverse. Especially given the performance of other economies and their currencies...capital flight et al. Can't say there isn't a hidden agenda to let the USD be and make exports more appealing.

Re:
"obvious inflated sense of self importance, strong emotional need to inflate his own ego by dominating/humiliating those perceived as 'enemies', and furiously dissecting anything"

Brynaw - what's wrong with dissecting? it might help the less savvy and prone-to-trust novice that might be perusing and mistake this for THE WORD. And you forget the "lazy putz" comeback of yesterweek - at least recognize the inflated sense of self isn't exclusive.

Again:
(+1)+(-1) = 0
And ZERO adds no value...

The Weakening Value of the Dollar

Kuwait (dinar) on 5/20.

Interestingly enough, Syria ended its peg mid-2006 (july?)...

And while this hardly makes news or any ripples here, Saudi has shifted some of its USD holdings for EURos... infer from this what you will...

'Summer Doldrums' To Provide Trading Range with Slight Expansion

"Dow remains in an overbought state"

how do you measure this?