Sonia Mirza

The US Dollar: Worthless - Or Just Worth Less?

", and I already own a baseball bat in case things get real ugly. "

LOL!


To add to: "If you are born-rich non-working in the US, then the US Dollar is not "worth more" or "worth less" to you in any way. Non-workers don't care what it's worth"

The same goes for foreigners. Try living in a country that has a currency so worthless (in the true sense) that if you travel abroad, you cannot even EXCHANGE it because every refuses to accept it. Yeah. Whether the USD is worth more or less, it is valuable in that it becomes a medium of exchange for the increasingly global resources we have... Try going to a bureau de change at heathrow and asking them to change Tanzania shillings into GBP or USD...

lol@ "Bernanke mentions "inflation is his primary concern." He is primarily concerned with inflating the money supply as much as he can get away with. Then people take on debt, and the inflated money goes to the people who put Bush and the Gang of Pricks "

keep up the good work Brian!

How Would Warren Buffett Value Dendreon?

how about 60% or 70% (cost) for the 1st year or two, and diminishing thereafter, perhaps even at 40% in the terminal year? Not sure whether it would remain a constant 50% for all years in the model. Just an idea for you to improve it and hone in...

How Would Warren Buffett Value Dendreon?

Fantastic. It's good to see someone putting a DCF out here! Kudos to you!

I had DNDN on my radar since December 2006 (yes it came to me in a dream much like the structure of Benzene did to that famous scientist), but I was an oaf, and am now regretting it!

Glad you put this in, because it's what I was going to question: "...because Provenge requires a higher cost to produce than the typical drug – Dr. Hall states that Provenge is “custom made for each individual patient with their own cells.”

The only thing that remains - what discount rate/factor have you used?

Cheers!

John Hussman: 'Forward Operating Earnings' As Basis For Valuation Is a Fiction

ok, my bad. I re-read your title, and last line, and I guess you're saying the only way to justify prices is by considering Fwd Op. Earns, and this is wrong, therefore, stocks are overvalued as we stand. So I guess I agree?

John Hussman: 'Forward Operating Earnings' As Basis For Valuation Is a Fiction

Forward operating earnings are estimates - and should be treated as such. I never pay much attention to them, and if I do, I would look more at the underlying assumptions due to the positive bias of any forward looking statement/metric. Therefore, have to agree with Morales and this argument not making very much sense (or not convincing me), unless you're saying that the Price today can only be justified by the expectation of something hugely +ve coming to fruition in the future (and we don't know when what or why). This is a bit odd - AND, isnt that what the P/E multiple sort of tells us in a roundabout way?

Beware of the Data Underlying the Economy

wow Paul, I like your version better.
We use "can't find his arse with his own hands" or can't find his left hand with his right...but bloodhound is stronger. Nice!

Good numbers need to be taken with a healthy dose of skepticism - nothing wrong with it.

Doomsday Pundits Are Wrong Again

"shameless. completely ridiculous that this guy has an opinion on stocks even as he acknowledges he's done no serious research on."

LOL LOL.

Needed to hear every word, that was sO refreshing. Thanks John! :)

U.S. Protectionist Temperature Is Rising

Jeez, ecstatic even.

And for fun, read this article about Zimbabwe...government intervention gone all wrong. THEN tell me you want a closed and/or protected market. They have no real economy, everyday business is conducted on the black market (which is effectively THE market) because of goverment and the way they chose to handle things. An excerpt: A car rental costs "$2,760 per day — plus a deposit of $100,000 — at the official exchange rate, but only about $35 and $1250, respectively, on the black market" news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20...;_ylt=Ash5Oa1vDH2yQgmU...


Do any of you even know what nationalism is? And what it is to live in a country where you could not buy bread, toothpaste, or soap? If you grew up under Nyerere in Tanzania up to the mid 80's, you wouldn't be such a proponent of a less-than-free market. Perhaps I am mixing issues, but not having an open market really does hurt the consumer.

U.S. Protectionist Temperature Is Rising

Mmmh...economics.

Protectionism is BAD BAD BAD. Artificially controlling the marketplace...aren't we as the leaders of capitalism, feeling how inherently wrong this could be?

Have to agree with Matthew: "How will American goods become cheaper if Congress limits competition? Prices will go up, incomes will go down, and consumer confidence will go down."

Protectionism seeks to preserve domestic co's that would otherwise (in a free and open market) cease to exist because of their inefficiencies (higher manufacturing costs, processes not as streamlined as others') - ie in a manner that is artificial. The argument FOR it would be to allow domestic producers to "catch up" to foreign competitors who have had more time to research, develop etc. See EU Farming as a prime example. the lumber case above is clear, gov't A is trying to help it's producers sell their product more competitively in Market B by providing subsidies (ok, if you don't like that word, pick another...incentive maybe). Market B recognizes this, first tries to make up for it via taxes and then perhaps quotas. Vicious cycle that is more political than economic.

The whole reason we as consumers love an open market is because of the competition and choice we get. A closed or semi-closed/protected environment WILL hurt because I might not be able to buy the more fuel efficient cost-effective foreign-made car that I was able to buy prior, and am now force to buy a FixOrRepairDaily (FORD) which will require more outlay for the repairs and gas due to lower mileage. While the Russian economy is seeing a gap after everything that happened there, Russian's were extatic they were able to buy jeans...symbol of the West. Choice, and lower prices is why we love an open market....

As for the case of losing jobs and/or not making much, I do not follow John or Thomas...if there is protectionism (which you seem to be arguing in favour of) then your job at Ford (which would have been cut due had this been an open market) would be protected and you would still be employed...and probably at something lower than you would have been in a Free open market - or you make the same $ but now you pay twice as much for a foreign product that you want so your dollars are effectively worth less due to the protectionism.

If you're talking about being unemployed and breaking into cars for radios as a consequence, you're talking about a free-market system that has rendered a company or its operations obsolete due to the inefficiencies it cannot correct that has resulted in either a foreign competitor taking over, or those operations moving overseas (GM cannot for its life correct itself). If you're complaining about socks...tell me, do you shop at walmart, or do you go to the higher priced (I forget the name) American Apparell store just because? Find it terribly hard to believe you would forgoe the cost-savings at a walmart in order to support domestic producers. Check the hypocrisy before making your arguments. We can all sit here and hypothesize about how we need to protect domestic producers. In the long run, you will have less choice, relatively higher priced goods, an income (yes) but probably a lower one. Remember that the free market rewards the work you put in... and there is always something to be done. Don't tell me you want to keep making socks forever because it's what you were born to do...

Bear Market on the Way? Historical Evidence Says No

Agree with CrossП - only I'd add that not only do we not need stats to tell us we have a bear market, we also do not need more flim-flam from the media (without any relevant metrics or analyses) to tell us oh we're in we're OUT we're in - a bear market. Recall the downturn in Oct 2001. I knew what was happening, but the media REFUSED to see it as anything even slightly detrimental, perhaps because of the positive bias...Or maybe I was wrong.

and Brian, definitely can identify with "every indicator I try to apply to the numbers yields unexpected results. I'm not confident I'm committing no error in my analyses, but my personal predictions often don't seem far from those of reputable experts"...LOL.

Circumstances (geopolitical) are different now, one example:

- there was no Ahmedinejad prior to "today" - TICKERSENSE you can't assume that historical info will correctly predict, or help diagnose Bearishness vs Bullishness. And his crazy behaviour is only 1 factor in this whole equation...

what do I know

Shareholder Activism At Motorola: The Power Of Free Markets

I think you hit the nail on the head with the product portfolio lagging. For eons we would hear the annoying "hello moto" everywhere, and the Razr, Krazr, when-will-they-come-up... were the only products (at least) I associated with MOT. This should have been an indication...Perhaps the company thought it was creating a timeless product a la coca-cola classic or heinz ketchup or mont blanc stylos. Perhaps they underestimated the fickle consumer, the one that has to have the latest Kraze, no matter if this techno-fix comes from Mot, Aapl, Nok...Frankly I'm a bit surprised they're in this situation.

And not that I take his Cramer's word all the time, but it's hard to argue with the fact their their stock price hasn't moved over $2 in 2 years...

Eye on Gilead Sciences

Thanks for such a good FSA-isque synopsis.
Don't you love it when you're holding a position and mainstream jumps on the boat months later?! Fantastisch!

Euro vs. Dollar: Strength vs. Weakness?

I don't quite agree with purely technical analysis and charts alone. I could be wrong, but I don't see how watching the lines of the past tells me what the future holds. You can use it to study how the economy (currency) responds to certain shocks/events, but...I'm still not convinced. Agree somewhat with Van walleghem about looking at the trade balance/political environment, but there are other factors (strength and growth of the Euro-nation economies for example). This is not to say I do not look at charts...but if anyone has been able to look at the lines and be 100% right ito the direction of the move tommorrow (consistently) kindly elaborate....is it just a visual monte carlo simulation?

Options Trader: Thursday Morning Ideas

"If your stock performed that much better when you had a refinery on fire, would you invest in fire extinguishers or matches?"-LOL!

Missed your contributions, Phil, welcome back, and looking forward to the promised weekend output!

Doomsday Pundits Are Wrong Again

fair enough - always entertaining to read your take-downs - keep 'em coming.

Capex trimming and layoffs are to be expected. Failing that, you usually see companies offer up a sacrificial lamb along with a side of XXXmillion/billion in write-offs...you know the rest.

my "friend"??? Please - do NOT assume. I have no friends in this world, much less on this site! I was just coming to his defense as it appears he wasn't going to. LOL@"yourfriend"

Speaking of reasoning like a journalist - what is your take on all the cnbc folks and everyone else on TV who tells the general public what to buy and sell?