Sonia Mirza

Freud, the Fed, and a Box of Chocolates

Since I have chocolate on the mind...what would be the lindt of automakers, anyone?

Freud, the Fed, and a Box of Chocolates

Nice hook. I saw chocolate in the title...

Fun article, valid points, except...with the analogy, there is no end (the kid will always want more chox...and this is cannot possibly continue ad infinitum - the interest rates falling)

Are Share Buybacks Actually Good For Investors?

1. If the buyback was due to the company's perception that their shares are undervalued - somewhat a signal that they're undervalued in itself, yes.

2. If it's merely a play on #1 to artificially raise the price (since investors take this signal as a positive one) and have the general public jump on the bandwagon, and/or S/T EPS target maintenance then, no it's not good for shareholders...

3. If you have no alternative good use of FCF (that is cannot invest it in something that would potentially grow the company/value, therefore benefitting the SH as well), dividends is a direct cash provision. I am not sure how buybacks add direct value to SH other than price appreciation - perhaps I'm having a rather odd brainfart.

Put/Call Ratio for S&P 500 vs. Stocks Currently Above Its Long Term Average

therefore people were expecting the indices to decline MORE SO THAN STOCKS (hence more puts/calls), however since the LTA of Put/call spread of indices is falling wrt stox, then ppl are being more bullish on the indices VS STOCKS?

Put/Call Ratio for S&P 500 vs. Stocks Currently Above Its Long Term Average

"this indicator is above its long-term average, and falling. "

those words alone = mean reversion, nothing to write home about. I read this article earlier and didn't bother to comment because it just looks like a bit of a confused attempt to make some sort of point that is as yet unclear - have to agree with Earl - what exactly are you trying to say with that graph?

More puts/calls on the spx vs on stox, higher than its l/t ave, but falling, therefore people were expecting the indices to decline (hence more puts/calls), however since the LTA of Put/call spread of indices is falling wrt stox, then ppl are being more bullish on the indices? Is this what you're implying? Some clarification would be great, otherwise I'll have to shelve this in the verbal diarrhea section...

A Few Reasons to Continue Equity Exposure

LOL

except, if you're referring to the kinda comet I think you are, there will BE no market left - since the Earth would have been destroyed, so even if you did cash out early, unless you could afford that flight out to another planet (and assuming we have running water, shelter, and electricity there) you might not get to enjoy your holdings anyway...

'Summer Doldrums' To Provide Trading Range with Slight Expansion

"Dow remains in an overbought state"

how do you measure this?

The Fed Drama Builds: Bank of England Makes Things More Interesting

I think you're not considering the fact that there is an ECB imposed inflation target (ceiling = 2%). Hence, looking at the UK economy alone doesnt give you the whole picture on why they might be raising rates. This has always been a source of tension for all EU members - the welfare of your nations economy doesn't always correspond 1:1 with what is best for the EU as a whole. They are presently over the 2.0 inflation ceiling, with a forecasted annual inflation rate for 2007 of 2.5

infer from this what you will, but to compare the uk economy/int rates with the us alone isn't apples:apples.

U.S. Stock Market Through the Eyes of Foreign Investors

Thanks for the comparison.
Just another spin on: "We should probably not expect strong investor flows from the Euro-zone or the UK until and unless the Dollar strengthens. "

I'd say there are some out there who would see current conditions as an opportunity to get into the market, given that (and I am not talking on a fundamentals basis) it is cheaper (relatively, ito currency) right now. Just another way to look at it...and while you do address it with purchasing power, I dont agree 100% with a decline in porfolio investment flows. Perhaps a long-term horizon, and expected returns would add weight to this spin.

Thanks for the article!

Time to Move from Euro to U.S. Equities -- JPMorgan

Disagree in the current environment. Yes, in general the US and USD is a safe haven. But a lot of support for this is due to global faith in the US mkts and USD. Of late, we have seen several CB's offloading their USD holdings (Saudi Arabia being one example - causing concern to those who know how much of their holdings are in USD). Obviously there are many macro and cyclical issues in play, but Euro markets aren't unattractive right now - yes the depreciation of the USD will eventually make it a more valuable proposition to return to the USD.

Something to think about: the outlook for Euro economies (DE/FR/UK) seems to be better (AZ conf call this morning). This in contrast to our "bear market? bull market? Are we going up? Are we going down? Is the market slowing? Recession? No recession?"...

Is There Method in This Market's Madness?

interesting.

Although Re: "After 14,360 days since 1950, the chance of today being an up day is 52%. The chance of it being an unchanged day is 1.5%. And 46.5% days are down. That's remarkable."

Round it, and you're basically saying there's a 50% chance the market will go up today - not particularly remarkable.

You do redeem yourself with the magnitude (0.06% higher, if it is indeed an up day) - which then calls into question whether chasing the .06% will result in $ or are you paying more to chase that .06% return ie is it worth it?

Glad that you do present more than 1 side, tho

The Markets Have Recovered! (I've Seen This Movie Before)

LOL Brian

it's like chart readers...how does looking at the minute-by-minute action tell me anything about the fundamentals and LT potential of a company...

Roger

"made back"? I have stuff in my portfolio that I had nothing to make back on since it's been on the rise - ie "what february"? And...there's stuff that is still on the decline... I haven't broken even by any means, but I guess you're addressing people who are only looking at the Feb1st - today time frame... People look at that short a term? hmm

NYSE Net New Highs Means Downturn Unlikely

re: "I wonder if our horrible government went over to China and said, "either you peg your currency way down or we'll bomb the sh-- out of you," just like Armitage with his Pakistan crap. It doesn't make sense that foreign nations invest in the dollar"


I agree, BUT, it's interesting to note how currencies move (or DO NOT move) when bush visits (enter name of great political official here). I've only followed the GBP and USD and the fact that the currencies do things contrary to economics when Bush visited Blair on a few delicate occassions...really implies that yes, it doesn't make sense, but there might be (ok, there ARE) incentives that we the common people are completely unaware of.

Additionally, this is a nation that can obliterate the earth 3 times over, so investing in the dollar if you bear that in mind...does make some sense...

John Hussman: 'Forward Operating Earnings' As Basis For Valuation Is a Fiction

ok, my bad. I re-read your title, and last line, and I guess you're saying the only way to justify prices is by considering Fwd Op. Earns, and this is wrong, therefore, stocks are overvalued as we stand. So I guess I agree?

John Hussman: 'Forward Operating Earnings' As Basis For Valuation Is a Fiction

Forward operating earnings are estimates - and should be treated as such. I never pay much attention to them, and if I do, I would look more at the underlying assumptions due to the positive bias of any forward looking statement/metric. Therefore, have to agree with Morales and this argument not making very much sense (or not convincing me), unless you're saying that the Price today can only be justified by the expectation of something hugely +ve coming to fruition in the future (and we don't know when what or why). This is a bit odd - AND, isnt that what the P/E multiple sort of tells us in a roundabout way?