Questcor's Upcoming First Quarter Report: An Investor Reference Guide [View article]
Here is what I think:
I believe we are seeing a slow squeeze...as QCOR operating results get better, the low ratchets up and so does the high. We all just saw a 25% drop from mid March so that does not look very exhausted-yet, though this dump was slow and careful.
Next week, on May Day after the Q1 report we ratchet up again and keep going up and down along a climbing trend line. The process is repeated at the end of July when Q2 comes out..
Meanwhile QCOR keeps piling up cash for the final battle.
At some point the shorts panic, do another massive dump which is totally picked up by strong hands (you are looking at a 12-20 million share day). The war is over and QCOR reverts to more normal multiples.
Questcor Pharmaceuticals: How Can Such A Profitable Company Be So Risky? [View article]
"I believe shorts have the next move. Shorts have $820 million on the table. They will invent and publish new QCOR apocalyptic scenarios and do a share dump as they have done many times since July of last year.
Except that at some point old tricks do not work any more.
I find amazing the delusion that what worked at 30 times earnings supported by the confusion created by sticking the feds on some company, will again work at 9.5 times earnings with a 3.6% dividend yield. Einhorn is a pretty smart guy and I was surprised he did not cover (during the GMCR squeeze last year) until he was crushed."
Questcor's Upcoming First Quarter Report: An Investor Reference Guide [View article]
I believe shorts have the next move. Shorts have $820 million on the table. They will invent and publish new QCOR apocalyptic scenarios and do a share dump as they have done many times since July of last year.
Except that at some point old tricks do not work any more.
I find amazing the delusion that what worked at 30 times earnings supported by the confusion created by sticking the feds on some company, will again work at 9.5 times earnings with a 3.6% dividend yield. Einhorn is a pretty smart guy and I was surprised he did not cover until he was crushed.
Questcor's Upcoming First Quarter Report: An Investor Reference Guide [View article]
Michael,
Great, research, clear analysis.
I still do not expect the QCOR shorts to fade into the sunset without a huge fight.
I was involved in such a fight this last summer involving GMCR. GMCR spent some $75 million from credit lines to take out 3 million short shares to finally crush a series of raids led by David Einhorn. Mr. Einhorn left GMCR alone and went on to pick on Apple. GMCR shares have since tripled from the bottom.
QCOR finally has enough cash in the bank and share repurchase mandate from board to do a crushing buyback when the shorts do their next dump (probably timed around the Q1 earnings release).
PS. and if they don't, I will be at the shareholder meeting in a month asking a lot of questions.
Questcor Set To Beat Wall Street Predictions [View article]
As usual I agree with M. Fuller.
Shorts just proved that they can still drive the stock down 10% by dumping shares.
QCOR is trading at 9 times earning and 3.2% dividend. After the last raid, large holders were piling up 10% above those multiples.
Dividend record date less than 2 weeks away. Q1 earnings release soon after that. Even if results flat due to timing issues, you still get a 70% revenue increase compared to Q1 a year ago.
Shorts are slowly being squeezed out-- but are in denial. Meanwhile company has converted all those receivables into cash to buy a chunk more of their shares back.
This is very dangerous level for the shorts to be fighting a battle backed by flimsy, delusional "research".
Signs Of Life At Heckmann, Or Should I Say Nuverra [View article]
TFCAB,
The shorts are the ones hanging in the wind.
North Dakota is now producing more oil than the North Slope of Alaska, and Warren Buffett's BNSF railroad and tanker companies can barely keep up with our entrepreneurial drive to energy independence. See page 14: http://bit.ly/12hhKLf
I was actually surprised the HEK numbers were so good despite the very rough winter. It is difficult to do fracking when all the water around is frozen and slippery. But they tell me that come June it all melts and the days get a lot longer to get work done. Keep the $90- $95 crude prices and Mark and Chuck Gordon's team will have a hard time keeping up with the pent -up demand.
Dick Heckmann has a big personal stake in the company and if you listened to the call he is pretty much involved. Dick was my boss for seven years and I can tell you that no-one ever made any money by making long-term bets against Dick Heckmann.
Controversial Questcor Still Looks Like A Buy [View article]
Tatensolo,
I congratulated the author privately on the level of the discussion. I will now do so publicly.
The discussion is important because, as Jim Cramer mentioned a couple of weeks ago, QCOR is a battleground between longs and shorts. One side is right. The other one is delusional. But which one?
It is crucial for investors to determine for themselves who is publishing stuff based on facts, and who is dealing in cargo cult science and attempting to create impossible expectations.
So Cramer was probably right telling "TV couch investors" to keep out of this one.
Controversial Questcor Still Looks Like A Buy [View article]
Mr Webb,
Since news of the marketing practices investigation during the last week of Sept 2012, dropped the price of QCOR a further 45%, from where it has been crushed to by the shorts, it is valuable to consider what happens to QCOR valuation if they sign a consent decree tomorrow "we have done nothing wrong.. and we will never do it again".
This is why I agree with the other Michael (Fuller) that the current QCOR price reflects all of this stuff, as we bottom-feeders keep buying at 10X earnings and 3% dividend.
Also, the options open to a company that has $400 million a year in cash flow, are only limited by management's imagination. This makes the potential QCOR upside unknowable.
Controversial Questcor Still Looks Like A Buy [View article]
Mr. Simpson,
Your QCOR article reminds me of a subtle pitch by an insurance salesman telling me all the things that can go wrong. Given the volatility of QCOR, not necessarily a bad thing.
However we feel it is important to focus on cash flow. Last Quarter QCOR operating cash flow was $84 million. Given the current sales force, we see it going to some $100 million per quarter by this summer.
I ran a NASDAQ company for a few years and I can tell you that given that kind of cash flow, the options open to management (including massive re-purchases next time the shorts do a dump, more dividend hikes) are many and therefore the upside QCOR price is unknowable.
Questcor: Firing On All Cylinders, Earnings Next Tuesday, Shorts Covering [View article]
ATG,
As far as QCOR analysis, my money is on Michael. He is the smartest guy in the room.
Jim Cramer told amateurs a couple of weeks ago to stay away from QCOR because this is a battle. The side with the most $$$ bullets wins.
At the moment (half hour after the opening bell) the shorts have been dumping about 40,000 shares a minute into strong hands without much of a dent in the price of QCOR. Volume is waning.
When you run out of bullets you run for the hills.
Questcor: Firing On All Cylinders, Earnings Next Tuesday, Shorts Covering [View article]
Jake,
Good Article.
My understanding of the BioVectra acquisition is as a brilliant defensive move to prevent the ACTHAR purification IP from falling into the wrong hands.
The revenue upside washes out in 2013 if the C$50 million cash "earnout" is triggered.
The shorts have $750 million on the table so I would not expect them to fade into the sunset gracefully. I am thinking they will do another share dump to coincide with the Q conference, then, having exhausted all the other fantasies, publish a report that QCOR will go bust because "Angry Bird Syndrome" is decimating all the porcine drug sources in the US Canada and Mexico.
I also believe this will be all out war between the fact-based longs and the "chicken little" shorts---with the side with the most money winning the final battle. After the 13G filings yesterday, I believe there is now enough money on the fact-based side to take out the shorts.
Questcor's Growth Could Lead To Its Downfall [View article]
I agree with Mr. Webb that fear is a crucial part of the equation. I further agree that fear, in the short term, trumps numbers and facts.
This is why QCOR droped to $17.25 in the last week of September shortly after the company disclosed that the Feds were looking into their Marketing practices.
In the market, fear and greed balance every morning based on new numbers and new facts. This is why Black Rock, Deerfield, Tiger, Susquehanna, Visium, and the rest of us are piling up to buy when QCOR drops below a certain level. That level has been moving up as information trickles out. It is now around $25. I am projecting this "bottom feeding" number will ratchet up to $30 after the earnings report.
I completely agree with you that based on the numbers and information known today, $30 is the top of the range. However, this top number is an unknowable variable once the company opens its Kimono in a couple of weeks.
QCOR was trading at over $58 back in July when the shorts first decided that the best defense against rapidly improving fundamentals was to publish a scare report and dump a few million shares to trigger stop losses.
Having been the CEO of a NASDAQ company I can tell you that at this point the options open to the company to enhance share price are to numerous to predict what QCOR top price will be after the earnings call. But I can safely predict that many millions shares will change hands and that short interest will shrink.
Questcor's Upcoming First Quarter Report: An Investor Reference Guide [View article]
You may want to revisit my three set of comments above defining a slow squeeze.
Regarding the numbers I trust Michael's analysis as well as my own.
Questcor Pharmaceuticals In Play Ahead Of Earnings Release [View article]
Good article. The link to the Fuller article is smart.
I can make one infallible prediction: A lot of QCOR shares will change hands over the next couple of trading days.
Questcor's Upcoming First Quarter Report: An Investor Reference Guide [View article]
I believe we are seeing a slow squeeze...as QCOR operating results get better, the low ratchets up and so does the high. We all just saw a 25% drop from mid March so that does not look very exhausted-yet, though this dump was slow and careful.
Next week, on May Day after the Q1 report we ratchet up again and keep going up and down along a climbing trend line. The process is repeated at the end of July when Q2 comes out..
Meanwhile QCOR keeps piling up cash for the final battle.
At some point the shorts panic, do another massive dump which is totally picked up by strong hands (you are looking at a 12-20 million share day). The war is over and QCOR reverts to more normal multiples.
Questcor Pharmaceuticals: How Can Such A Profitable Company Be So Risky? [View article]
Except that at some point old tricks do not work any more.
I find amazing the delusion that what worked at 30 times earnings supported by the confusion created by sticking the feds on some company, will again work at 9.5 times earnings with a 3.6% dividend yield. Einhorn is a pretty smart guy and I was surprised he did not cover (during the GMCR squeeze last year) until he was crushed."
Questcor's Upcoming First Quarter Report: An Investor Reference Guide [View article]
Except that at some point old tricks do not work any more.
I find amazing the delusion that what worked at 30 times earnings supported by the confusion created by sticking the feds on some company, will again work at 9.5 times earnings with a 3.6% dividend yield. Einhorn is a pretty smart guy and I was surprised he did not cover until he was crushed.
Questcor's Upcoming First Quarter Report: An Investor Reference Guide [View article]
Great, research, clear analysis.
I still do not expect the QCOR shorts to fade into the sunset without a huge fight.
I was involved in such a fight this last summer involving GMCR. GMCR spent some $75 million from credit lines to take out 3 million short shares to finally crush a series of raids led by David Einhorn. Mr. Einhorn left GMCR alone and went on to pick on Apple. GMCR shares have since tripled from the bottom.
QCOR finally has enough cash in the bank and share repurchase mandate from board to do a crushing buyback when the shorts do their next dump (probably timed around the Q1 earnings release).
PS. and if they don't, I will be at the shareholder meeting in a month asking a lot of questions.
Questcor Set To Beat Wall Street Predictions [View article]
Shorts just proved that they can still drive the stock down 10% by dumping shares.
QCOR is trading at 9 times earning and 3.2% dividend. After the last raid, large holders were piling up 10% above those multiples.
Dividend record date less than 2 weeks away. Q1 earnings release soon after that. Even if results flat due to timing issues, you still get a 70% revenue increase compared to Q1 a year ago.
Shorts are slowly being squeezed out-- but are in denial. Meanwhile company has converted all those receivables into cash to buy a chunk more of their shares back.
This is very dangerous level for the shorts to be fighting a battle backed by flimsy, delusional "research".
Signs Of Life At Heckmann, Or Should I Say Nuverra [View article]
TFCAB,
The shorts are the ones hanging in the wind.
North Dakota is now producing more oil than the North Slope of Alaska, and Warren Buffett's BNSF railroad and tanker companies can barely keep up with our entrepreneurial drive to energy independence. See page 14: http://bit.ly/12hhKLf
I was actually surprised the HEK numbers were so good despite the very rough winter. It is difficult to do fracking when all the water around is frozen and slippery. But they tell me that come June it all melts and the days get a lot longer to get work done. Keep the $90- $95 crude prices and Mark and Chuck Gordon's team will have a hard time keeping up with the pent -up demand.
Dick Heckmann has a big personal stake in the company and if you listened to the call he is pretty much involved. Dick was my boss for seven years and I can tell you that no-one ever made any money by making long-term bets against Dick Heckmann.
Controversial Questcor Still Looks Like A Buy [View article]
I congratulated the author privately on the level of the discussion. I will now do so publicly.
The discussion is important because, as Jim Cramer mentioned a couple of weeks ago, QCOR is a battleground between longs and shorts. One side is right. The other one is delusional. But which one?
It is crucial for investors to determine for themselves who is publishing stuff based on facts, and who is dealing in cargo cult science and attempting to create impossible expectations.
So Cramer was probably right telling "TV couch investors" to keep out of this one.
Controversial Questcor Still Looks Like A Buy [View article]
Since news of the marketing practices investigation during the last week of Sept 2012, dropped the price of QCOR a further 45%, from where it has been crushed to by the shorts, it is valuable to consider what happens to QCOR valuation if they sign a consent decree tomorrow "we have done nothing wrong.. and we will never do it again".
This is why I agree with the other Michael (Fuller) that the current QCOR price reflects all of this stuff, as we bottom-feeders keep buying at 10X earnings and 3% dividend.
Also, the options open to a company that has $400 million a year in cash flow, are only limited by management's imagination. This makes the potential QCOR upside unknowable.
Controversial Questcor Still Looks Like A Buy [View article]
Your QCOR article reminds me of a subtle pitch by an insurance salesman telling me all the things that can go wrong. Given the volatility of QCOR, not necessarily a bad thing.
However we feel it is important to focus on cash flow. Last Quarter QCOR operating cash flow was $84 million. Given the current sales force, we see it going to some $100 million per quarter by this summer.
I ran a NASDAQ company for a few years and I can tell you that given that kind of cash flow, the options open to management (including massive re-purchases next time the shorts do a dump, more dividend hikes) are many and therefore the upside QCOR price is unknowable.
Questcor: Firing On All Cylinders, Earnings Next Tuesday, Shorts Covering [View article]
As far as QCOR analysis, my money is on Michael. He is the smartest guy in the room.
Jim Cramer told amateurs a couple of weeks ago to stay away from QCOR because this is a battle. The side with the most $$$ bullets wins.
At the moment (half hour after the opening bell) the shorts have been dumping about 40,000 shares a minute into strong hands without much of a dent in the price of QCOR. Volume is waning.
When you run out of bullets you run for the hills.
Questcor: Firing On All Cylinders, Earnings Next Tuesday, Shorts Covering [View article]
Good Article.
My understanding of the BioVectra acquisition is as a brilliant defensive move to prevent the ACTHAR purification IP from falling into the wrong hands.
The revenue upside washes out in 2013 if the C$50 million cash "earnout" is triggered.
Questcor - Short Squeeze Starting [View article]
http://1.usa.gov/Ydjmgr
The shorts have $750 million on the table so I would not expect them to fade into the sunset gracefully. I am thinking they will do another share dump to coincide with the Q conference, then, having exhausted all the other fantasies, publish a report that QCOR will go bust because "Angry Bird Syndrome" is decimating all the porcine drug sources in the US Canada and Mexico.
I also believe this will be all out war between the fact-based longs and the "chicken little" shorts---with the side with the most money winning the final battle. After the 13G filings yesterday, I believe there is now enough money on the fact-based side to take out the shorts.
Questcor's Growth Could Lead To Its Downfall [View article]
This is why QCOR droped to $17.25 in the last week of September shortly after the company disclosed that the Feds were looking into their Marketing practices.
In the market, fear and greed balance every morning based on new numbers and new facts. This is why Black Rock, Deerfield, Tiger, Susquehanna, Visium, and the rest of us are piling up to buy when QCOR drops below a certain level. That level has been moving up as information trickles out. It is now around $25. I am projecting this "bottom feeding" number will ratchet up to $30 after the earnings report.
I completely agree with you that based on the numbers and information known today, $30 is the top of the range. However, this top number is an unknowable variable once the company opens its Kimono in a couple of weeks.
QCOR was trading at over $58 back in July when the shorts first decided that the best defense against rapidly improving fundamentals was to publish a scare report and dump a few million shares to trigger stop losses.
Having been the CEO of a NASDAQ company I can tell you that at this point the options open to the company to enhance share price are to numerous to predict what QCOR top price will be after the earnings call. But I can safely predict that many millions shares will change hands and that short interest will shrink.
.